2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[frylock]

Guess one question is will Machado go to the highest bidder or take less to play in NY now that we know for sure they put an offer on the table (I always thought the latter was a certainty, but perhaps not).

Still holding out hope on us getting Harper, and I do think management has turned their attention to him over Machado as option #1. Just hope the free agency saga comes to an end soon... it has to... right!?

[zambonir]

Never thought either player would take less money to play anywhere and still don't. Unless it's a completely insignificant $ amount. The more relevant outstanding question now is, would either of them sign for anything less than a record contract (total or AAV)? Still got at least three weeks before both are signed, I reckon. Maybe longer.

[Philsmania]

It looks like the Giants' pursuit of Harper is serious.

Opinion: Giants serious about Bryce Harper as late entrants into free-agent...

[bigegypt0417]

This has scott boras written all over it.

[saycheese]

Reading the article thing that sticks out the term mutual interest. That has never been connected or said with the Phillies with Harper or Machado. Mutual interest means they are negotiating to get a deal done. The Phillies being termed the front runner all off season was more because of the dollars. Now it seems like San Fran is putting something out there Harper likes.

[zambonir]

I think you are reading too much into "mutual interest." Any team Harper has talked to constitutes mutual interest. When they were meeting with the Phillies it was covered like a love affair. Also, same writer (Nightengale said the Phillies were going to sign Harper back then).

What I read is the Giants haven't made an offer yet. What the article above says is:

The Giants indeed plan to offer Harper a lucrative short-term deal, but have no desire to provide a long-term contract approaching the 10-year, $300 million contract Harper rejected from the Washington Nationals in September.

It is indeed total Boras. That doesn't mean the Giants won't get him, it could certainly happen. Just like the Nats got lots of his guys before they were really ready to win. But there's no reason to think the Phillies can't still make the best offer if they want to. At the end of the day they also offer the best chance to win now.

This is exactly why I still prefer Machado tbh. It's still taking a long time but I think he is more signable. Harper and Boras will happily wait until March 15.

[andyb]

Not sure what short term, high dollar would mean. 3 years and $120 million? I kind of doubt they would go that high.

I still feel the contract that lands Harper will be $300 million and contain opt-outs. Why would Harper accept one (high dollar early) when he can have both (long term security too)?

[allentown]

If that is the route things are to take, it's ideal for the Phillies. The shorter term is a lot safer -- both in terms of injury and age risk and of the player losing enthusiasm. This forces player to play for next contract.$150/4 sounds good to me.

[zambonir]

yup I just wouldn't put much stock in Nightengale's reporting here. or in any chance that the Phillies will sign one of these guys for less than seven-ten years.

[Jazzhead]

I couldn't be more pleased at the Realmuto acquisition. This is what you use prospects for - to acquire the best catcher in baseball.

As folks know, I haven't been keen on acquiring either Machado or Harper, at least not at the kinds of dollars they appear to be demanding. While I can see getting one of those players for a fair price to be a secondary goal, I think the Phils' primary goal at this point is to make sure that no team within the division acquires either of those two. Indeed, I strongly suspect that a key reason Harper hasn't signed is that both the Phils and the Nats are playing a game of chicken, with each prepared to top the other to make sure Harper doesn't sign with their key rival. So it doesn't bother me in the least if Harper signs with the Giants (out of the division) or (even better) the Yankees (out of the league).

I am hoping that Harper blinks first, and signs a shorter term deal out of the division or league. Then we can make one last push for Machado, who I strongly suspect, in the end, doesn't have much interest in coming to Philly. But we have to do what we can to make sure he doesn't go to the Braves, Nats or Mets.

[Austinfan]

I'm not really worried, one way or another.

I think with four young arms (Velasquez, Eflin, Pivetta and De Los Santos) who can bring the heat, and a healthy Eickhoff, we're going to have excellent starting pitching (safety in numbers) and Robertson is the finishing touch to a deep bullpen (RH but great numbers against lefties).

So we didn't need to build a top five offensive juggernaut, just a solid offensive group that is at least average or better defensively (that alone will make a big difference with the young pitchers who all put up 3.80 or so FIPs last year).

Now you need a little luck, stay healthy, a bounce back year from Herrera or Altherr, one of Kingery/Franco/Knapp taking a step up - but nothing that is off the charts unlikely.

Adding Harper or Machado would be great, but if you have to buy Machado and he's gonna sulk with his megacontract - pass. And if Harper doesn't want to come here, same thing - it's one thing to pay a little more, but I don't think it's productive to bribe a player into going where he won't be happy, once he cashes the check, he'll still be unhappy.

[LoneStarPhan]

A couple weeks ago, I would have put the chances of signing either Harper or Machado much higher than being able to trade for Realmuto. Yet they got Realmuto done. I don't think that changes their chances for one of the big two. In fact, if anything, it might improve them.

[Taudawg]

I simply don't believe the "don't want to play here" business. We know Bryce has spoken to Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth about Philly, and Jake and Rhys share the same agent, you can bet they spoke to him as well. Even Boras was talking up Philly over the past year. I'm sure if the money was the same they would prefer another city, but this is about the offer. Getting the best offer.

[tom81]

JI’m in your camp AF. Harper or Machado would improve the team, but with the acquisition we have already made and some improvements by some of the young holdovers, I don’t think they are needed to field a competitive team this year. I certainly wouldn’t overpay, well at least not in years, which would most likely burden the team in the future. I would expect to he team to top any offer they get on a short term deal but Klentak has been very disciplined about not giving out long term guarantees to free agents and I hope he maintains this discipline. He also will not be shy this year about making trade deadline deals if we are in the hunt.

[Austinfan]

If you have to grossly overpay to get a player to come, he doesn't want to come here.
So overpaying is a fool's errand.
That's different than making the best, but still reasonable offer.

[BostonRoss]

I think whatever contract Harper gets from anyone will be an overpay. The hype around relaxes his cost. Machado might well end up with less than the Nationals offer to Harper.

[zambonir]

Personally I don't think there is anything wrong - nor is it necessarily bad business - with paying a player for his entertainment value as much as his production. I prefer Machado as a player. But there's no doubt Harper will sell more tickets, boost NBC's ratings, be on more billboards, etc. and so forth. He has the toughest agent but he also has a stronger brand, and that is worth something.

But I guess neither Machado nor Harper truly want to play baseball in any city, including DC in Harper's case, because so far they are only willing to sign an "overpay" contract.

[bigegypt0417]

I simply don't believe the "don't want to play here" business. We know Bryce has spoken to Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth about Philly, and Jake and Rhys share the same agent, you can bet they spoke to him as well. Even Boras was talking up Philly over the past year. I'm sure if the money was the same they would prefer another city, but this is about the offer. Getting the best offer.

My thoughts exactly...a preferred destination comes in to play if the offers are similar in length and dollars.

[zambonir]

I guess the emotion people are feeling is, "if they haven't signed by spring training they don't want to be here." But that's just not where the game is these days. And I guess J.D. Martinez didn't really want to play for the Red Sox.

Truth is Arrieta didn't really want to play for us, and certainly not at that salary, but I don't mind having him, and I won't mind if Machado has to "settle" for $250 million either.

[BostonRoss]

But I don't want the Phillies to pay for being more entertaining or to sell more tickets. I want them to pay for the best players and give themselves the best chance to win.

I know the Phillies have to think about their business, but if they sign Machado instead of Harper, not only will they have a better player, they will probably have more money to spend elsewhere going forward.