2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[gmwannabe]

I'm with Biggie on this. is Realmuto that much better than Alfaro? he is 2 years older. they'll have him for 2 years. they won't have enough to pay for him then in free agency, if trout is in the picture. AND then to put sixto in the picture AND another prospect. That is too much. I have a feeling this is an Amaro fleece job coming up. there have been some comparisons as a Pedro #2 for sixto. i can't believe that. but most every scout you hear about says a #1 or #2. If he would start in reading, or play this year up here, he'd be in the bigs at 22. i think Klentak is taking a big chance here. i guess they will get more people in the seats for a few years, but then, depending on trout. who knows? i don't like this. i'd give up Bossart, de Los Santos, aparicio and maybe Pujols.. That's it.
gm

[andyb]

Not sure including Moniak (non top 5 these days) would make me feel good either. A - He still has some value. And B - that would be confirming to some degree the colossal failure at the top of that draft.

Klentak's record at the moment is mediocre drafting. Trades that only look good if we are using money. Overpaying some free agents (Cutch, Santana, Hunter, Neshek). Mismatched rosters (Santana). Bad trade adjustments (Appel). And poor implementation of analytics (bottom of the league shifting stats, awful defense in general).

[gmwannabe]

Plus he is at an injury prone position. Oy vey.

[David_Criss]

Joel Sherman (Joelsherman1)

Here was his update a few minutes later.
Top 1 and 2 prospects plus a controllable affordable Alfaro seems like a really steep price. I can see why the Fish are suddenly moving this towards the finish line.

[Taudawg]

I think the Phillies are all in on trying to win in 2019 and the next few seasons. Mortgaging the future I guess somewhat.

Here's one thing I didn't know about JT, he is a much bigger star on the road. His home/road splits are sizable. I knew Marlins park wasn't a hitters park, but I didn't realize just how much until I started checking others' splits and park factors. He might not be just a little bit better by moving to CBP. He could be a lot better. Just saying...

[fish]

is Realmuto that much better than Alfaro? he is 2 years older. they'll have him for 2 years.

I'd say yes, he is that much better. Probably instantly becomes one of the top 5 catchers in the history of the organization. He's cement at a cornerstone position where we currently have a wet mix trying to set. I love Alfaro- he's got talent like no other catcher we've had before and I'm in no rush to move on from him. But if you want to make a move that is going to improve the certainty that the Phillies will be legitimate next year, Realmuto is one of those kind of moves. And sure to be a fan favorite.

That said, Alfaro, Sanchez, and any of Bohm, Medina, Garcia or Howard is wayyyyy too much.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Do the Phillies need to complete this deal to show Harper or Machado they are really into winning? I would think if they make a trade for Realmuto they have an "agreement" in place to sign at least one of the 2 FA's.

[gmwannabe]

Just saw on another site that Sixto and Fergie Jenkins share the same birthday ( i didn't look it up). Now wouldn't that be ironic. i personally think that was the worst trade in phils history where they traded a pitcher. even more Oy Vey. and a 4th prospect is now being talked about!
gm

[Lawman]

I don't like trading Alfaro and Sixto for Realmuto, but I can make the arguments work. Throwing in Bohm/Haseley/Moniak w/o obtaining another piece other then Realmuto seems to me a really, really painful deal.

[el-pietro]

I'm seeing almost the exact opposite! "Don't give up Sixto", "We have no pitching" (which is flat out wrong), "Two years of Realmuto isn't worth it"...

[el-pietro]

I agree with this. There was a 3 win difference between the two last year. I can understand worrying about two years of Realmuto vs four years Alfaro but a roster full of 1-2 win players will get you nowhere.

How many ~4 win players are available?

[Squire]

Deal sounds worse with each new tweet.

[andyb]

There was a 3 win difference between the two last year. I can understand worrying about two years of Realmuto vs four years Alfaro but a roster full of 1-2 win players will get you nowhere.

But Realmuto is likely not getting better and Alfaro should get better. Plus it is 5 years of Alfaro and then 6 of Sanchez and another prospect. That is a lot for 4-5 total wins the next 2 years.

[Squire]

Well Realmuto is getting better if you consider his home/road splits in Miami and then put him in CBP for half the season I think

[Philsmania]

Matt Breen tweets that the Phillies became less than enamored with Sanchez's conditioning for whatever that is worth.

Matt Breen (matt_breen)

[andyb]

Well Realmuto is getting better if you consider his home/road splits in Miami and then put him in CBP for half the season I think

A higher OPS because of a better park is not "getting better". The history of catchers is that they start a downward curve at age 28. There is no reason for a swift decline. It is just catchers peak on the early side because of the physical demands of the position. It would hit Alfaro too of course. We could easily be getting an average defensive, 775 OPS catcher even in CBP.

[el-pietro]

Is it not 4 years of Alfaro? And how much better can he get? What is his ceiling? Can he be a 4 win player? Cos thats what Realmuto is right now. Realmuto doesn't need to get better, he just needs to maintain his current level. Sure in two years hes gone or you have to pay him but you also have two years to find another ~4 win player to replace him.

C: Realmuto ~4 wins
1B: Hoskins ~3.5 wins
2B: Hernandez ~2 wins
3B: Franco ~1.5 wins
LF: McCutchern ~2.5 wins
CF: Herrera ~2 wins
RF: Harper ~5 wins

Total: 20.5 wins

or

C: Realmuto ~4 wins
1B: Hoskins ~3.5 wins
2B: Hernandez ~2 wins
3B: Machado ~5 wins
LF: McCutchern ~2.5 wins
CF: Herrera ~2 wins
RF: Williams ~1 win

Total: 20 wins

Both of those lineups look much nicer to me than the same but with Alfaros 1-2 wins included. Two to three additional wins may not seem like much but its so much easier to find those first couple of wins than the additional couple.

[andyb]

Alfaro's ceiling is actually quite high. 30+ HRs and gold glove defense. That is better than Realmuto. There is a small chance he gets there, but ceiling is based on tools more than anything else.

Alfaro has less than 1 and a half years in terms of service. 2 more years of pre-arbitration. 3 years of arbitration. Earliest free agency would be 2024.

And Sixto coming up to be a second number one starter would give you more potentially than the extra couple of wins from Realmuto. People do not realize that we have a pretty lousy minor league system if we trade Sixto and another top 5 prospect. We'll be the Yankees in their period where they had a mediocre farm system except we won't have anywhere near as much money.

[bigegypt0417]

Alfaro's ceiling is actually quite high. 30+ HRs and gold glove defense. That is better than Realmuto. There is a small chance he gets there, but ceiling is based on tools more than anything else.

Your ceiling for Alfaro is the best catcher in baseball?

I'm just curious since most metrics give that honor to Realmuto....WAR as a starting point.

[andyb]

Your ceiling for Alfaro is the best catcher in baseball?

Yes. Maybe a 5% chance he gets there. That is what tools are in terms of projecting ceiling.

Now his more probable projection is to continue to have too much swing and miss in his game. So never much more than a .250 hitter with 20 HRs. Defense probably improves the next couple of years. That is a 2-3 WAR catcher. Top 10 but nowhere near the best in the game.