2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[Jazzhead]

If I could get Realmuto for Sixto,, I'd make that trade in a heartbeat. Realmuto is as much in his prime as Harper and Machado, and at a critical position that he dominates. Sixto throws 100, that's far more likely to play as closer than a starter, so even in that successful scenario I'd rather have Realmuto.

The biggest negative is that you almost have to sell low on Alfaro, and I'd rather keep him if we could get him to keep developing, perhaps with stints at first base or even right field. Maybe he's the next Yogi Berra.

[zambonir]

I don't actually trade for Realmuto unless I'm sure I'm getting Machado or Harper. He's not an alternative. If Machado or Harper push this team from 82-83 to 88-89 wins Realmuto takes them over the top.

The fact that other teams are getting in on the Big Two just tells me the Phillies could still blow everyone away if they have to. They still don't have to. But if they did somehow imagine not getting either of them - perhaps even by choice - getting Realmuto and Moustakas (or Marwin Gonzalez) and Keuchel would certainly be a lot better than only getting two guys.

[Lawman]

I just don't see the gap between Alfaro and Realmuto large enough to warrant trading your only blue chip prospect.

[BostonRoss]

I don't give up Sixto for Realmuto when I have Alfaro penciled in as my starting Catcher. I save Sixto for next offseason when I can package him to LAA for Mike Trout.

Why wait?

[jimbomill]

I just don't see the gap between Alfaro and Realmuto large enough to warrant trading your only blue chip prospect.

That's how I see it. I wouldn't mind seeing Alfaro with one more time in the Bigs to see his progression.

[Philsmania]

I just don't see the gap between Alfaro and Realmuto large enough to warrant trading your only blue chip prospect.

That's how I see it. I wouldn't mind seeing Alfaro with one more time in the Bigs to see his progression.

I third that.

[kmc1019]

Wow, we've stumbled on a pretty interesting debate in potential Realmuto trade as there is a wide disparity in how people are valuing Alfaro vs Realmuto. There are some people whose posts I almost always agree with, but in this case diverge.

To me, Realmuto is arguably the best all-around Catcher in MLB. If he is not, who is?

Alfaro, in my opinion, is talented but with some glaring weakness (contact rate, OBP, blocking balls) that may or may not improve. At this stage of his career, he is likely in the 12-20 range as far as Catcher rankings go.

Realmuto would therefore be a major upgrade and worth pursuing. If I can get Marlins to bite on Alfaro, Nick Williams and either Medina or Howard, I do it in a heartbeat. If they insist on Sixto............ugh....ouch...his seemingly fragile health causes me to ultimately still do it.

[andyb]

Realmuto is clearly better. He was age 27 last year though. Look at his most similar players through age 27. It is instructive:

Miguel Montero (952.8)
Sammy White (948.6)
Terry Kennedy (944.5)
A.J. Pierzynski (944.0)
Jonathan Lucroy (941.3)
Victor Martinez (938.8)
Rich Gedman (937.8)
Earl Battey (936.4)
Tony Pena (934.4)
Mike Lieberthal (929.5)

Realmuto is good but not great. Those types of catchers typically peak at age 27. His age 28 and 29 (the 2 years we would trade for) will be very good. Probably 7-8 WAR if he stays healthy (7.9 the last 2 years). Alfaro is a little younger so he still could get a bit better. He is middle of the pack now in terms of league catchers but could easily be top 10 over the course of the next 2 years (and then be the same age as Realmuto going forward).

So we trade for an additional 4-5 WAR over the next 2 years to get Realmuto. We might give up 4 WAR in the next few years from not having Alfaro. And then Sixto is our best prospect.

If we were a 92-win team looking for that last move to get over the top this might make sense. For the Phillies though we are projected at something like 84 wins now (Baseball Prospectus). Getting Machado or Harper probably takes us to 87-88 wins. If we got neither then Realmuto takes us to 86 wins. I take my chances with Machado and if we need a deal midseason to win in 2019 I deal at that point.

[allentown]

My issue with trading a lot for Realmuto is that I don't see catcher as a position of weakness. We have weaknesses. We are weak in the OF and somewhat weak at 3B. With the universal DH, Franco becomes our DH.

[Squire]

Craig Mish (CraigMish)

1. This guys expects Realmuto to be traded (somewhere) today
2. Alfaro not at morning workouts according to Jim Peyton at Phuturephillies
3. Other names in the mix include Sixto and Alec Bohm

Don't shoot the messenger

[allentown]

Hugely too much! Years of Alfaro plus the entire careers of Sixto and Bohm for two years of Realmuto. Nope! Thanks for finding this, but I really hope we aren't the trade partner.

[Squire]

Joel Sherman (Joelsherman1)

Joel Sherman update. No mention of Bohm but Moniak or Haseley or Medina

[Squire]

Starting to seem like this is going to happen today and we're not going to like it

[Florida_Sunshine]

Don't like it, period. We have greater needs and already have an improving young catcher that is a match for Realmuto by age to 25. I see Alfaro improving during the same time period Realmuto did. Does it need to match? No. We need a balanced payroll and I don't see how you can do that with more than 3-4 at max or close to it. Just as important are the young pieces that help balance out the payroll.

[andyb]

Latest article talks about Alfaro, Sanchez and a 3rd piece. Moniak, Haseley, and Medina "under consideration" for that.

This would be a truly horrendous deal and I am not shy about dealing prospects. This is just not the right way to do it. Too little gain at the expense of lots of the future. Will leave us with a bottom 10 farm system potentially and an expensive roster that is probably not quite good enough to win.

Klentak is continuing his mediocre record of moves if these rumors are true. It is easy to make moves when you have money. It is harder to make the right moves though.

[LoneStarPhan]

I certainly hope these rumors are not true. The Phillies have made trades this bad in the distant past, but I had hope that the current GM was not going to be hoodwinked as badly as these rumors suggest. If so, it will rival throwing in Sandberg with Bowa in the deal for de Jesus.

I have hopes that if a deal does happen, it will be much better for the Phillies than the rumors reported above.

[bigegypt0417]

I'm going to hate this trade.

[el-pietro]

I'm excited at the prospect of getting Realmuto, especially as this could give an edge to getting Harper or Machado.
I don't think adding one of those two is enough on their own to win the division, so getting an extra 2-3 wins from Realmuto is a real positive in the short term.

I don't love giving up Alfaro and Sixto though I won't lose sleep over it. Sixto may be a superstar, or he may never be healthy enough. Alfaro is gonna be 26 in June and he still has some development ahead of him, but hes not exactly a kid either. Realmuto is two years older than him and has outperformed Alfaros best season by a serious margin in every full season hes had in the Majors. With Alfaro I feel similar to how I do about JP Crawford. We're trading a guy for the guy we hope he might become.

Will have to wait and see who else ends up in the deal but I am generally positive about this though I wonder why they didn't go after Grandal or Ramos who would have only cost money.

[Philsmania]

Unfortunately, social media is overwhelmingly in favor of it..."Alfaro sucks, Sixto always gets hurt, Sixto's only a prospect just like Domonic Brown was,...".

[fish]

A third piece that includes anyone else in the top 5 would make me feel as sick about that trade as thinking about the Phillies first three picks in the 2016 draft makes me feel.