2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[zambonir]

Why would anyone seriously ask that question when we know the Phillies didn't even sign Arrieta until March 12? It's not even February. Corbin's two years younger so teams were willing to give him four or five years (and he found someone go six). Keuchel's still hoping, but he's clearly not available right now at a price that would work for the Phillies, let alone one that would work before they know what happens with Harper or Machado (especially since a comp pick would also be involved). Plus Gio is still out there if they just want to get someone on a one-year deal.

We could just as easily ask, why hasn't Boras let Dallas Keuchel sign with someone?

[julio]

Why would anyone seriously ask that question when we know the Phillies didn't even sign Arrieta until March 12?

Because the "someone" in question, who has been a Phillies fan "as long as he can remember" (which probably translates to 15 years) is a college kid with a blog, who may not be particularly good at logical analysis (it's not something taught in school, you know).

As we all know, "It's on the Internet; it must be _____." is best completed with the word "garbage."

[allentown]

Contrary to popular opinion, Keuchel did not have all that good a 2018. Yes, he pitched over 200 IP, but his K/9 fell by more than 1 K/9 and his WHIP rose. He had excellent seasons in his age 26 and 27 seasons, also pitching over 200 IP those years. then came two seasons of a lot fewer IP before last season. He's worth a nice 2-year deal, but doesn't look like a guy whose age 34/35 seasons I'd like to gamble on. Signing up for his age 31/21 seasons seems an equitable division of risk. He was elite back in 2014 and 2015, but he no longer seems to be that guy.

[zambonir]

I don't think it's popular opinion that Keuchel had a good 2018 (maybe that article said so - I didn't click it - but David noted he did not).

I just don't think you want two aging groundball pitchers in your rotation for the next three years. Wait for the deadline and then make an accompanying move if you don't exercise Arrieta's option (assuming he exercises his).

[California_Dreamin]

The thing some of you are forgetting is that Boras represents both Harper [ a guy the Phils want very much] and Keuchel [ a guy they want on a shorter deal.] Boras knows this as well as the Phillies do.

Do't think for one minute that Boras wouldn't suggest that a 3 year deal for Keuchel would certainly go a long ways towards finalizing a Harper deal. Now Boras can't demand, he can't threaten, he can't go that far.

But one of the advantages to representing so many players is that he is often able to cross over from one player to the next for his goals and purposes.

He has actually done this twice to the Phillies that I am aware of...both involving JD Drew and Ed Wade. In December of 1997 when the Phils were talking to Boras about Drew, he changed the subject to a 2nd baseman he was trying to find a job for..Mark Lewis. He theorized that getting Lewis a job would sure establish a good will gesture for later on and his other clients.

Phils signed Lewis and gave him the 2nd base job for 1998. Then in May of 1998, Wade contacted Boras to try and re-open the Drew talks. Boras quickly changed the subject to a Phillie prospect named Carlton Loewer and how Boras sure would "appreciate" a good will gesture again by bringing up Loewer since he was doing well in Triple A. Phils called Loewer up a few days later, he made his debut that Sunday [ a win]...and of course Drew never signed.

Boras has certainly used this tactic well with Washington, my gosh I believe at one point 10 or so players from the 25 man roster were Boras clients. There was even a half joking suggestion that Boras was in some respects more owner of the Nats than Lerner was.

I believe its quite feasible that if the Phils sign Harper, we might just see Keuchel or Moustakas [both players of need and Boras clients] becoming Phillies soon thereafter.

[VoteForKalas]

IMO the Phillies need to make the Harper and Macado decisions solely based on the merits of them as players and their fit for our roster.

I get that PR is important to some and Boras will do whatever possible to "persuade" teams to give his clients huge paydays, but I'd advise the Phillies to ignore such tactics. The Phillies should be a smarter organization than during the dark days of the Drew fiasco under Wade and certainly do not need to emulate those times in Phillies history.

[zambonir]

No question. But for all his shenanigans, I don't believe Boras would be unethical in a way that didn't serve his clients. He is not going to give the Phillies a "deal" on Keuchel if they sign Harper unless Keuchel doesn't have a better offer anyway. And if the Phillies wanted to sign Keuchel to a big deal tomorrow he wouldn't slow-play that because it might affect Harper's offer.

The Phillies are already well on their way to being Team Boras with Arrieta (and now Hoskins) as well as several other players they already had. Won't be a surprise if Nola switches to him as he gets closer to free agency.

[flyers19rw]

Need a clarification here please. If the Phillies were to sign Keuchel, do they lose their first round choice? Right now that's the 14th selection. I don't know if that is the current compensation for a FA who received a QO or if it was changed let year.

[Patchmk88]

They’d lose their 2nd round draft pick. Teams no longer lose their first round draft pick.

[Austinfan]

That's a violation of his fiduciary duty to his clients, and a good way to get his ass sued.

I have little interest in Keuchel, I think I'd rather bet on the young pitchers we have than a declining junk ball lefty.
What worries me is he's riding on the reputation of a big 2015, but after pitching 232 innings, he only threw 320 the next two years combined. He bounced back last year, but that suggests you'd better limit his innings.
He's a 3.7-3.8 FIP pitcher who can give you 6 IP for 30 starts or so.
But we already have that in Arrieta.
Now if you could move Arrieta and give Keuchel his money for two years, that would be fine.

The good news is that Keuchel hasn't lost any more velocity from his 89 MPH two and four seamers, but he's totally dependent on his slider and changeup, and they both went a bit south last year - so you're betting on him recovering them, which is better than betting on adding velocity at age 31.

[bigegypt0417]

Here we go again!

MLB The Show on Twitter

[flyers19rw]

Thanks for the clarification.

[andyb]

Not sure I would respect a player that would time a 10-year free agent contract around a video game announcement.

The real question is whether there is an MLB The Show curse like there is on Madden cover boys.

[allentown]

I don't see that it makes a huge difference. It's really the same to him (and really to the Phillies) if he agrees to terms this week or a month ago. He might as well get some side-benefit from the timing of the signing. This seems a very minor game, compared to all the serious, probably collusional, games the owners have been playing. If he signs with us, it's clear we were no better than his second choice: he wanted to be a Dodger, but that didn't work out, apparently. We weren't Thome's first choice either, but the $ with Indians didn't work out. I see no reason for players to rush to sign in what appears to be a reduced-valuation, rigged market. I'm happy to have him sign with us sooner rather than later and don't much care what went into finally pushing him across the line.

I do agree with the analytical conclusion that most 33-38-year old players weren't worth nearly as much as teams previously believed they were worth. Part of that was poor understanding, but I think a lot of that on the very long-term deals was the teams' clear-eyed decision that they preferred to spread out the payments over more years, knowing that they guy was almost certainly going to be worth more than the contract $ in the early years. It is just a shame, and feel very unfair, that the value correction on the tail-end of players' careers is being implemented earlier than the equally serious value correction going the opposite direction for the early-stage of players' careers.

[Austinfan]

I doubt this is a rigged market.

The salary cap is doing what you'd expect it to do, even though it's a soft cap, teams don't want to blow through it on a regular basis and remove the option of strategically exceeding the cap (since penalties escalate with repeated violations).

Teams are using analytics to more accurately value contracts that extend over 30 years old.
Decline curves are well known now, as well as probability of injury risk.
When you factor both of those in, the past contracts, as has been evident ex post, were grossly overpriced.

[bigegypt0417]

Baseball King™ on Twitter

[schooldoc]

Photos of Bryce Harper Phillies bats appeared on Twitter — here's why

[zambonir]

The video game business is certainly a big deal but I can't imagine they pay their cover star enough (as opposed to whatever they pay MLB and/or MLBPA overall) to get them to pick up the contractual pace. I would think they might come up with some kind of gimmick if they have a print deadline.

The question re: Keuchel is the same as it was last year with Arrieta - if you have already forfeited your second-round pick (in this case on Harper) is losing a third no big deal? I kind of think giving up four picks (and int'l money, and the pool) in two years is.

[EastFallowfield]

Zolecki on radio says he's been alerted there may be news today

[el-pietro]

Individually all of these rumours seem silly but there seems to be a lot of momentum today. The Zolecki thing is a bit of a game changer, hes not one to throw out unfounded rumours.