2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[zambonir]

Very good point about Kingery actually. I mean, Herrera was a 2B. Biggio did the same thing for a while (and he used to be a catcher). Cesar and Freddy both played the position for us too. And all of these things only matter if Quinn gets hurt.

I don't think Herrera's trade value is high enough though. It will be higher with a bounce-back year. But it really depends what you're trying to get, and from what kind of team (where they are both competitively and financially). He certainly doesn't headline a package for Kluber or Ray (or Realmuto) but neither does Williams or Franco.

[flyers19rw]

Just a hunch on my part, and one that will probably be pooh poohed by many, but I think that the surprise of ST may well be Adam Haseley and he can play CF.
Folks were not impressed by his '17 stats. Frankly they were mediocre. However this was a player switching over to wooden bats, playing professional ball and and doing it after a full season of NCAA baseball where he also had been Virginia's Friday night SP in addition to his OF days when he was not on the mound. He was not the first person to see a season like he had in the summer after being drafted.
Last year he produced at a very good level both at Clearwater and Reading. Strong BA, OBP and defense. Not a lot of over the wall power but enough to be an average threat. He did leave the club before the end of the season for what were described as personal reasons. I don't believe that they were divulged. Then again, the Phillies didn't seem to be put off by it except for the chance that he might have been called up at the end of the R-Philllies season.
The report on him going into the draft was that he was a solid hitter; good for average and had pop in his bat; try good BB to K ratio. He showed that last season. He's probably scheduled for LV this spring but he may have a shot of either making the club outright out of ST or being an early season call up. He could well end up being the Phillies version of Andrew Benetendi,

[zambonir]

That'd be nice, but given how Kingery showed last year I can't see anyone getting fast-tracked like that this year. I would also think he still starts in Reading, AAA by July. And if we see him before 9/1 it's gonna mean one of our current OFs really flopped (or got hurt). I don't think they'd be looking at Harper (or would have signed McCutchen for three years) if they thought Haseley or Moniak could truly, fully take over before 2021.

[andyb]

If we have to deal Franco or Williams or Herrera because of the free agent we signed, I am not sure we will be looking to make them part of a larger deal (like Kluber or Ray). I think we need to get into top prospects for those types of deals.

The deal we make will probably be for prospects or maybe part of a deal to get rid of a reliever salary like Hunter or Neshek. Williams and Neshek for a lower cost reliever might make sense to save $5 million. Personally I would prefer some lottery tickets (and San Diego has a bunch on international toolsy prospects for a Franco deal), but think the cost saving deal that would still provide a roster piece is the most likely.

[bkox]

Mark Feinsand (Feinsand)

[zambonir]

I feel like they don't even need a reliever. Back-up catcher?

[andyb]

My guess is they want another reliever with options left. Backup catcher works too. I think I would prefer prospects, but understand the reliever with options philosophy with today's bullpen use. I wonder if going back to the 15-day DL will lessen the incentive for lots of minor league reliever moves a bit.

[flyers19rw]

Not to be political but its probably a good time to get all of the Phillies prospects in Venezuela out of there. This Maduro-Guaido confrontation is not going to end peacefully and probably not too quickly.

[tom81]

In addition to his conditioning I also glad for this reason that Odubel Herrera spent most of the off-season in Florida. I am really hopeful of his prospects for the upcoming year, I think the team has a much better appreciation of what makes him tick and how much he can contribute when he is going well. Miggy is a great example for him!

How a future Hall of Famer might’ve helped remake Phillies enigma Odubel Herrera

[zambonir]

Absolutely get the reliever with options thing but I'm not sure they need another one on the 40. They just need to get rid of one of Neshek, Hunter or Nicasio (or Morgan) in order to more easily cycle the guys they already have (probably including several members of last year's AAA rotation.

Would definitely like to see them acquire some minor league inventory, even if it's just for July trading season (or to balance things out if they really did try to get a pitcher in trade still).

[allentown]

This is a very encouraging article. I think a better than average, both offensively and defensively, year for Odubel is a necessary element in the Phillies having a successful 2019. I don't see the argument for trading him at a time when his value is depressed by a down 2018. He has been a good defensive CF up until last season. I am inclined to put his 2018 problems down to being flanked by poor OFs, along with the Phillies unsuccessful 2018 experimentation with a different approach to player positioning, which also dogged the IFs. We were an historically bad defensive team last year, which also suggests that something larger than Odubel was to blame.

[andyb]

Padres appear to be seriously in on Manny now. This should not be surprising as they have a relatively low payroll, no 3B, and could build a team around Machado with their top tier farm system over time. Not sure they can go over $30 million a year, but this probably lessens any chance that we might get Machado for a huge discount (like 8/200).

Padres are now chasing Manny Machado

[Philsmania]

What happened to all that chatter a couple of weeks ago about Machado's situation likely being resolved "within a week"? If anything, it has only become more convoluted.

[David_Criss]

I was wondering the same thing. At one point do the White Sox and Phillies say you know what, forget this? Both teams made it very clear they wanted him and gave what I am assuming are solid offers only to be strung along. Seriously both Harper and Machado know who wants them and what they are willing to pay.

To me it is somewhat insulting to say yeah I'll play for you but not until I make absolutely sure I can't find something better.

[zambonir]

It's amazing there's been no movement at all but the answer is, all the chatter that things were moving was complete bull. The entire rumor industry is just there to sell clicks and get video eyes and play with your emotions. Remember when Harper was supposed to release his uniform on a video game cover the day he met with the Phillies?

It was always thought Machado would sign first but he clearly isn't anywhere near the big number he wants. Nobody ever really thought Harper would sign before February (probably late February).

We've always known both these players wanted to sign $325 million contracts (or record-breaking AAV). Just because they have almost no chance of getting that now (seemingly) doesn't mean they should settle for what's on the table now.

I think it's good that the Padres are in there. If the White Sox offer is accurately reported we know the Phillies probably haven't topped it by that much, or at least, not enough to take him off the market. If San Diego does get in there with a new high bid it won't be hard for the Phillies to chase them out.

At the end of the day we actually want the market to rise, IMO. If it stays low there's a much better chance the Yankees or Nats sneak in.

[Jazzhead]

Even if you give Machado $35 million for seven years, that's still way short of the $300+ million deal he was apparently expecting. Perhaps he needs to get in touch with his own reality. There are reports out of San Diego about players expressing concerns over Machado, not just Yankee execs saying they'll question him about his Johnny Hustle remarks. Machado may have rankled some players when he ran over Aguilar's foot.

I simply won't shed a tear if we don't sign Machado.to the mega contract. He's a great player, but he's not a great player like McCutcheon in his prime about whom you know he'll help his team be more than the sum of its parts.

If Cutch were 26 I'd give him what Machado is asking for. As it is, I'm looking forward to my Phightins with Cutch in left and Hoskins where he belongs at first.

[tom81]

A.J. Preller does like to make a big splash and with so many prospects close to the show it might be a good idea for them to bring in a young establish vet and Machado fit them really well. I can imagine them offering more than the White Sox. There are doubts about the reports of the players concerns too. I've also heard that Machado doesn't want to go to the West Coast but SD is about the nicest city in the country, he may change his mind.

http://sportsmockery.com/2019/01/report-padres-want-to-set-up-a-meeting-with-manny-machado-in-miami/

You can structure the deal to make it possible to be a $300+ million deal but only guarantee 6 or 7 years. I think it will take an AAV pf $35 million for at least 6 years, to top Grienke, plus a team option for the other years to get you to $300+. Something like 5 years @ $35 plus a team option for 5 more at somewhere between $25-$30 milliion, with a player opt in for 1-2 years @ $35 million if the team doesn't pick up the option.

I'm also thinking the market is deeper for Machado so we may end up with Harper or neither of them unless we get more aggressive.

[zambonir]

The West Coast is great but if you live in Miami that just wouldn't be very appealing, and it's not like this is theoretical for him, he just went to the World Series with a So Cal team and that was supposed to make him a Dodger For Life according to some people. In Philly he'll be able to go home on the odd off-day (though hopefully not at the All-Star break) and play all those games against the Marlins and the Braves (and if his wife loves NY that much she can easily spend several weeks of the season there). I would also think the Phillies have a huge advantage over the White Sox when it comes to spring training.

The reverse is true for the Asian players, New York is certainly a perfectly good market for a Japanese player, they're not going to feel isolated or have trouble finding their favorite food, but it still makes more sense to be in Seattle, SF or LA (even if they certainly can't just pop home for the weekend).

[frylock]

Agree 100% with everything you said.

[David_Criss]

Why haven't the Phillies sign Dallas Keuchel yet? It's been long enough

Keuchel has put together some great seasons and I am sure is wondering why Corbin who has had only a couple of great seasons gets the 6/140 deal. 2018 should set off some alarm bells when looking at Keuchel as it did for Arrieta after 2017.