2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[EDmuch]

Fish, I think you make a very good point.

[xogfog]

Defense was horrible last year, Machado is a clear upgrade at 3rd base, so with Segura, the infield would be vastly improved.

The lineup also needs a left handed power bat, Harper, ding.

There really is a big need for both, but if not both, while I originally wanted Machado over Harper early on, once they moved Santana, I am more in favor of Harper. I think the need of a LH hitter outweighs the need of the 3B upgrade.

[bigegypt0417]

The White Sox offer was insulting, even if you don't want to go long, on a 7 year deal, I'd have to think $200M would be closer to market value ($28+M a year or so, or 4 WAR a year average from age 27-33, you don't pay top dollar on long-term deals).

All indications from other sources are that is not close to their offer.

Your Bill Giles rules to paying players aside, elite talents like Machado are given big years with the understanding there will be sunken costs. Your comparison to Howard isn't really appropriate since he wasn't elite when we signed and was 4 years older than either of these two stars.

[EDmuch]

After signing Harper, there can still be a third base upgrade: Moustakis. While Moose is not as good a fielder as Machado, he is probably a better fielder than Franco. Plus he would be another left hand bat along with Harper to balance McCutcheon and Hoskins on the right side.

[bigegypt0417]

After signing Harper, there can still be a third base upgrade: Moustakis. While Moose is not as good a fielder as Machado, he is probably a better fielder than Franco. Plus he would be another left hand bat along with Harper to balance McCutcheon and Hoskins on the right side.

I like the idea!

At this point you can get him on a shortish contract.

[EDmuch]

Yes, Moose could be the 3 year bridge to Bohm (sp?).

Heck since Moose is also a Boras client, we could have a double signing party !!!!!

[allentown]

I'm not sure we need a 3-year bridge to Bohm. If he's as good as we hope he is, then we really only want a 2-year bridge.

[zambonir]

Is he?

But no reason to think you'd even have to give Moose three years (at least not guaranteed). If memory serves there's only been one three-year contract given out to a position player so far (ahem).

In any case I wouldn't worry about blocking a player who hasn't even been to high A yet. Would be a good problem to have. Too bad it's not a problem we actually have at 2B yet.

[andyb]

Good chance Bohm ends up in the OF too. And in this day of supersubs one could easily paint a scenario for a number of players getting 400 AB without a regular position. Blocking Bohm is not really a concern. If he develops it will be a good problem to have.

[andyb]

Long article on defense. Some interesting nuggets. While the article seems to be positive about Fuld (and quotes him a lot), they have also moved him away from positioning this year. Supposedly their new model for this is better. We shall see of course.

And there is a Statcast projection on what the defensive changes from acquisitions will do. While we improve in LF (not Hoskins), RF (McCutchen) and 1B (Hoskins), we get worse at SS by a small amount. Was a little surprised to see this because the conventional wisdom had Segura at least average and Kingery below. This projection showed the opposite. It is good to see them taking defense seriously at least, even if there is no evidence that their analytics are helping.

Beyond a big splash: How the Phillies are working to improve...

[xogfog]

Willing to take a flyer on Sonny Gray if you can get him cheap? Yanks are trading him. Have no idea what it would take to get him.

[zambonir]

I certainly ask about him (and I'm sure they have, for months) but it's really not clear if he'll be an upgrade over what they currently have, he's RH, and he's a FA to-be, so I wouldn't offer much.

[andyb]

Gray is right handed also. Not sure he adds much even if he is a decent risk as a buy low candidate. I have been hearing the Mike Minor mentions lately once again as well and they probably make more sense. Or Robbie Ray.

[zambonir]

They are already saying Gray deal is close to done, doubt it's us.

[zambonir]

Legit bummed I missed the chance at 83

Bryce Harper rumors have Vegas adjusting Phillies win total betting odds

[zambonir]

Jon Heyman (JonHeyman)

Andy Martino (martinonyc)

(Martino is in NY, so, hmmh? By which I mean the Mets, actually.)

[Patchmk88]

If we let the Mets get him, I will not be happy.

[zambonir]

no way that's happening. we know the market is no higher than $200 million total now. a long way to go.

[Philsmania]

I was wondering if the Mets might be the mystery team in on Machado, considering his and his wife's affinity for NYC but their infield is already very crowded.

[zambonir]

Yeah I do think it's unlikely, but they would fit the "mystery team" much better than the Yankees, and their GM's been on a tear. Don't see where they'd get the money though. If there is really anything to his Dad's comment that it's a team we haven't thought of that basically means it's not the Phillies, ChiSox, Yankees or Dodgers.

In the end I doubt the wife's love of NY will change the fact that he's taking the best offer.