2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

bkox 2019-01-14 21:41:53 UTC #268

California_Dreamin 2019-01-14 22:01:21 UTC #269

While I understand this philosophy of "waiting for Mike Trout" and it does make some sense but, golly gee, the chances of ANY team EVER getting an opportunity to sign not one but two 26 year old mega stars in the SAME year are almost astronomically small.

Almost as small as a baseball team A] blowing a 6.5 game lead with 12 to play in '64, B] blowing a 2 run lead with two outs and no one on in the 9th inning of a playoff game and then calling it Black Friday or C] Playoff kingpin ace Cliff Lee blowing a 4 run lead at home in a 2011 playoff game. Impossible. Oh, wait...

Still, call me foolish but I find it ludicrous to deny yourself a chance to get both Harper and Machado simply on hypothetical grounds of perhaps chasing future free agents down the line. Look, Arenado has professed his hopes and desires to play for the Dodgers since he grew up in SoCal and still does. Boston is never going to let Betts get away, just not going to happen. As for Trout, sure it seems possible he could become a free agent in 2021 and want to come home to Philadelphia.

But I can also think of about 6 big salaried teams [Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Angels, Mets] that are not simply going to roll over and allow the best player in baseball to jet directly to Philadelphia without passing GO and making a huge effort to sign him themselves.

I know this much. Right now there is only one free agent reality and its that both Harper and Machado are 26, mega stars with their best years ahead of them and both are being courted by the Phillies, a team that can afford both of them. This will NEVER happen again. If they have a chance to sign both and fail to do so out of waiting for some future player who may never even taste free agency, I think it is a huge mistake.

This was to me that foolish idea that they absolutely couldn't have Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay on the same team at the same time because of potential money issues down the line. Lee was dealt within hours of Halladay being acquired and a good case can be made that this move didn't save them money, it cost them money. They had to bring in an expensive Roy Oswalt, re-sign a free agent Cliff Lee, then trade for an expensive Hunter Pence.

Keeping Lee and signing Werth when they could have would have saved them money...and made them money. Signing MM and Harper guarantees higher TV ratings, more advertising, sell outs in at least 50% of their games, potential playoff revenue and so much more.

I don't believe they will get both but I do believe they should try.

donaldorc 2019-01-14 22:37:47 UTC #270

I’m with ya, CD!

zambonir 2019-01-14 22:59:53 UTC #271

Just like Manny was either going to stay in LA or sign with the Yankees and Corbin was going to sign with the Yankees and Harper was going to be a Cub. Funny how you also switch from certainty to possibility/pessimism once it's Trout.

I'm not rulling out signing both guys out of hand. It would be pretty cool. But it's not without risk. The comparison to 2010 and 2011 isn't really on the mark IMO. Very different team. But also, that ownership group was cheap. This ownership group is probably willing to hit the luxury tax, but that doesn't mean they should blow past it (also, Pence was cheap and controllable, though obviously he cost them talent).

Had they truly known they could sign both guys six weeks ago I wonder if they would have made both of the moves they already made (McCutchen and Segura).

tom81 2019-01-14 23:13:42 UTC #272

I think the key to possibly signing both Harper and Machado now was acquiring both McCutchen and Segura earlier. Those moves made Philly more of a legitimate playoff contender and thus more attractive to the free agents. Those moves also helped depress the market for the top two free agents. The team with the most need for them, and the most resources to spend, now had some flexibility to be selective and settle for only getting them at a decent price. Since we don’t have to bid against ourselves we can let the market come to us a bit which might make acquiring both affordable.

I really like the way Klentak etc play the off-season. He is agressive early and pays up a bit to give him the ability to let the more expensive big ticket items drop in price.

zambonir 2019-01-15 00:51:30 UTC #273

Well, I like the argument, but I dunno. Replacing Santana with McCutchen doesn't really improve the line-up that much (just the defense by moving Hoskins) and they signed Segura to play Machado's preferred position. If they really wanted to impress those guys they would have gotten a pitcher too.

I think it is still about the size of the check and nothing else which is why a 62-win team appears to be the other top contender. And it was always going to take this long too, the agents set that pace.

Beyond that, if they get them at a lower price than expected it will be because the market never got there, and that's because the Yankees, Dodgers and Cubs aren't playing.

I also don't think the Phillies are any less desperate to get one of these guys than they were in November. Their current ZIPs projection (grain of salt I know) isn't much better than last year's finish and the Mets and Nats and Braves have all gotten better too.

David_Criss 2019-01-15 03:53:08 UTC #274

Looking ahead, honestly I have switched to hoping it is Harper and then sign Rendon next year.

They could still look to trade for Greinke. Gio Gonzalez is also available if they truly want a left starter on a short deal. I am getting excited for baseball.

EDmuch 2019-01-15 04:01:49 UTC #275

If they sign Harper, I could see them going after Moustakis who is another Boras client. Then trading Franco to San Diego.

zambonir 2019-01-15 04:15:01 UTC #276

For sure. Though it seems like San Diego isn't that interested from what I can tell. They have been in the past. Things could change fast if the Phillies are ready to make the deal though.

I like Greinke at the deadline maybe? But that's one of the players it would be much harder to take on if you get real close to the cap.

My guess is Rendon re-signs with the Nats before spring training, if they don't bring Harper back.

If you're gonna just play bowling with Boras there is always Keuchel on an Arrieta-like deal too.

frylock 2019-01-15 04:36:17 UTC #277

Things are definitely heating up. Went from 100% pessimistic thinking we get neither, to thinking 25% chance we get none, 50% chance we get at least one, and 25% we get both.

mdougherty12 2019-01-15 06:29:59 UTC #278

A little more on the 2018 Phils’ defense:

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/nola-pivetta-phillies-and-pitcher-specific-uzr?utm_source=dlvr.it

zambonir 2019-01-15 19:38:19 UTC #279

Sure is quiet. Too quiet.

across the game, there is increasing skepticism about how this can unfold without the Phillies somehow involved....

League sources insisted the Phillies have made this much clear during negotiations: They will not sign both players.

tom81 2019-01-15 19:55:10 UTC #280

I’m having a lot of fun watching this, I still think that whichever one of Harper/Machado signs first will get the biggest payday. I also think it possible that we do sign the second but only for a considerable discount in either money, years, or both. Of course they could both tell Philly to take a hike.

andyb 2019-01-15 19:58:48 UTC #281

I guess this is the first time that they have explicitly leaked that they will not sign both. Not that I ever expected that, as it would put future year payrolls into question. I am not sure it will help them or hurt them to say this though. Agents probably think they can get more money from them since they almost have to come away from this with one of them.

I definitely think Machado will happen in the next week or so. We should find out soon enough if the White Sox are serious. If they really are not going much over $200 million then he is clearly there for the Phillies to take with a $250-$300 million offer. If the White Sox are serious and get Machado, then Harper is going to get pretty expensive as the Phillies will almost have to beat any offer.

flyers19rw 2019-01-15 21:09:57 UTC #282

IMO, which ever player signs first will sign for the most money and better deal. If the Phillies sign Machado, I'd look for LAD to slide in and get Harper for less than he originally thought that he was going to get. If the Phillies sign Harper, Machado to NYY at a reduced rate would probably be the scenario.
I don't buy into the ChiSox being a landing place for either player unless they want anonymity. Having at one time lived in the Milwaukee area for 38 years, it was my experience that Chicago is a Cubbie town. Their players are the local heroes even if they're not. The Sox are down the line in the minds of the fans in Chicago even when they do well to the point of being in the WS. For most Chicagoans the seasons are Bears-Bulls-Cubs with some feelings for the Blackhawks during winter on the north side and some for the Sox on the south in summer. The longstanding relationship that the Cubs had with WGN radio/ tv/Tribune newspaper helped to create this environment and it continues today.

andyb 2019-01-15 21:26:26 UTC #283

The big variable though is the Phillies here. We are the one team in this scenario that is not angling for the biggest discount. I agree with you that if the PHILLIES SIGN ONE FIRST, then the second might go for less. But if another team signs one first, I think the Phillies try to top all bidders for the second. That is why the second could end up being more expensive. The Phillies seem to be the only team out there comfortable with a $300+ million deal.

This does not mean that the Phillies are not trying to get the player with the most reasonable deal. They are probably just willing to spend more than others to actually get the player.

fish 2019-01-15 21:30:29 UTC #284

I think it’s time for a good ole fashion hunger games approach. Offer them both the same contract. Every hour raise the total by 5 million until someone bites. Surely they both know what they would sign for by now.

flyers19rw 2019-01-15 21:51:59 UTC #285

I guess that I put my faith in the idea that the Phillies will not get outbid by another organization. If the Phillies offer the most and a player decides to go elsewhere, that’s just the way that it goes.
I’m noticing that the Phillies are only taking one of these players. Saving room for Trout in the future?

zambonir 2019-01-15 22:33:22 UTC #286

There's more to life than Trout, as far as the wisdom of saving some payroll space. Other players to trade for, other players to sign, increased costs for Nola. Blink twice and one or more of McCutchen, Segura and Herrera might all need to be replaced too. Ideally by cheap homegrown players, but we're still not there.

Telling the players they are only going to sign one of them still seems like a perfectly good negotiating tactic. Clearly the Phillies haven't made their final, drop-everything, preemptive number on Machado or he'd be signed. But if he's holding out and they go get Harper, he's lost his shot at the best contract probably.

Beyond that, signing both of them was probably going to require both of them to give up a little ground, which likely wasn't going to happen. They both want record contracts more than they want to be on a superteam.

California_Dreamin 2019-01-15 22:50:30 UTC #287

I still believe the Phils have not given up on the idea of signing both of them, this is merely a negotiating tactic. It simply doesn't make sense to completely rule out both of them, completely illogical. I cannot see Middleton, after all this Las Vegas effort and hoopla tell Bryce on Thursday, if MM signed on Wednesday, "sorry big guy, we just got Manny for 8/260 and we are done. Oh by the way, have fun hammering us for the next 5-10 years when you go back to the Nats."

Yes, that sure makes sense. Trout is a fantasy right now, Arenado is never coming, MM and Harper are here now, real and available for the right price.

Phils would forever rue the day they had the chance to get both and simply settled for one. Foolish and short sighted.