2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

Slinging_Southpaw 2017-09-01 20:42:30 UTC #743

I think what you saw here is what happens when you hold out for what you want, rather than taking what you can get. Sometimes you come up empty though.

flyers19rw 2017-09-01 21:20:37 UTC #744

On the subject of Ben Lively. Last night's game was an indication of what his potential can be. It was a nice game against a good opposing lineup. He's 26 years old and has spent two seasons in AAA ball where his stats are pretty good-3.10 era; 1.039 whip; 214 IPs; 172Ks; 40BBs; and a 7.3 HR/9 ratio. I'm not saying that he is a top of the rotation arm but he certainly has what it takes to be a 3 or 4. He looks like he can be a decent MLB pitcher with the right tutelage.
Its the end of a year which has been unexpectedly poor. However, like last night, there have been glimpses of talent on the roster. These pitchers are not all a bunch of Joe Roa types. They need a top notch coach to work with them. That has to be a major priority for the off season. The Phillies have to find a Searage, Rothschild, Maddox, et al for this staff. Beyond that the organization needs similarly skilled pitching coaches to work with the arms in the minors. Kllentak, Jordan, Almarez, and Agostinelli are finding players with potential. They need to be groomed properly.

bkox 2017-09-01 21:39:17 UTC #745

Austinfan 2017-09-01 22:15:26 UTC #746

Yep. Look at Pivetta, some games he looks totally lost, others he has been dominant. Leiter has shut down some good lineups. Eickhoff was a solid pitcher last year, hopefully he'll be healthy next year.
There's a lot of young pitching talent that has garnered some ML experience, and a bunch of good arms right behind them (Eshelman, Anderson, Kilome, El Garcia, Tavares. etc.).

I think Phans forget what the "norm" used to be - look at Lehigh's best pitchers in the past:

2008: Mazone, Happ, Blackley, Walrond, Knotts, Benson, Chiavacci
2009: Carrasco, Carpenter, Kendrick, Lehr, Chacin, Lopez
2010: Mazone, Carpenter, Savery, Dump, Duckworth (32), Vogelsong
2011: Bass, Bump, Federaband, Mathieson, Edell, Gordon, Bonine, Worley
2012: Cloyd, Elarton, Cochran, Misch, Bush, Pettibone
2013: Martin, Cloyd, Cochran, Morgan, Smith, Valdes, Minor
2014: Smith, O'Sullivan, Lincoln, Enright, Buchanan, Marquis
2015: Vasquez, Gonzalez, Aumont, Rodriquez, Morgan, Buchanan
2016: Buchanan, Thompson, Lively, Russell, Vasquez, Eflin, Klein
2017: Thompson, Eshelman, Lively, Appel, Ramos, Leibrandt, Pinto, Eflin, Tavares, Leiter, Pivetta

Let's look at Reading:
2008: Carrasco, Castro, Durbin, Bouknight, Carpenter, Brummett, Bastardo, Garcia
2009: Worley, Stutes, Savery, Brummet, Drabek, Flande
2010: Flance, Naylor, Worley, Cisco, Ramirez, Aumont
2011: Hyatt, Ramirez, Cloyd, Rosenberg, Esposito, Edell, Brummett, Zeid
2012: May, Rodriquez, Pettibone, Hyatt, Buchanan
2013: Biddle, Buchanan, Rosin, Wight, Colvin, Hollands
2014: Gonzalez, Milner, Loewen, Biddle, Garner, O'Sullivan
2015: Lively, Eflin, Biddle, Windle, Nola, Pivetta
2016: Pinto, Pivetta, Leiter, Vasquez, Viza, Richy, Eshelman
2017: Viza, Anderson, Leibrandt, Irvin, Watson, Bergjans

Florida_Sunshine 2017-09-01 22:17:47 UTC #747

I am patient, but we do have the money to secure great pitching as we have done in the past. Other than pitching, I see the only needs at 3B and maybe C.

Austinfan 2017-09-01 23:08:16 UTC #748

I think we're fine with a three headed monster at catcher for a couple of years, Rupp has improved defensively and has a .760 OPS, it's going to be hard to improve on that, Alfaro is showing flashes, and a couple years on the bench won't hurt his development (and maybe a few games at 1B and RF to get some additional PA), and Knapp could be a great utility player as a C/1B/OF switch hitting pinchhitter. Catcher is just not a priority.

3B is the biggest opportunity for improvement (since 1B is already a given). Either Franco turns it around or we need to find a decent (i.e. .750 OPS, plus fielder) 3B. Don't need a superstar, but someone who is an average (i.e. 2 WAR) starter.

California_Dreamin 2017-09-01 23:35:06 UTC #749

AF...I am occasionally unsure what point you are trying to make because in fact I believe your comments support my arguments. When you list past starting pitchers in the system it seems as if today's group is more talented. I agree with this assessment if thats the argument you are making and, indeed, we should be patient with them.

But I still believe that McClure is not the guy to get the best out of them, there is NOTHING in his past that suggests he has ever had a strong relationship with a pitching staff. IIRC, he was even the Phils 4th choice for the PC position, hardly a ringing endorsement.

My fear? That he and Peter Mac are good off field buddies [much like Fregosi and Podres were] and he has a job as long as Peter Mac does. In the case of Fregosi/Podres it was not an issue because Podres was probably better at what he did than Fregosi was.

When a team has an outstanding coach, its quite noticeable. Lopes was an incredible first base coach, Bowa was a great 3rd base coach, Williams may have been the strongest voice on the bench in the 2008 season. Joyner seemed a great hitting coach. Stairs seems to have that potential and deserves a chance to grow into the job.

McClure has had more than enough time to grow into the job and has largely failed. There are outstanding pitching coaches out there, Duncan was one, Searage is one. Kerrigan was good.

Phils need to spend what it takes to bring in a top pitching coach.

allentown 2017-09-02 00:10:49 UTC #750

Of course you're looking at the norm which led up to the Phillies transition from a WC to the current cellar dweller.

Austinfan 2017-09-02 02:16:45 UTC #751

The Dodgers are an interesting case of Moneyball meeting money, see the WSJ August 10.
When Friedman and Zaidi took over, Dodgers owed Kershaw, Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Kemp and Ethier more than $400M.
Traded Kemp in 2014, eating $32M of $107M, and released Crawford in 2016. Either and Gonzalez have been injured.

C Grandal (28) - trade SD, obtained with Eflin and Joe Wieland for Tim Federowicz, Matt Kemp and cash.
1B Bellinger (21) - 4th rd 2013
2B Utley (38) - resigned $2M
SS Seager (23) - #18 2012
3B Turner (32) - signed in 2014 as SFA, resigned 2017, 4yr'/$64M
LF Taylor (26) - traded for Zach Lee (#28 2010)
CF Pederson (25) - 11th rd 2010
RF Puig (26) - 7r/$42M out of Cuba
IF Forsythe (30) - trade Jose De Leon (24th rd 2013)
UT Hernandez (25) - traded with Austin Barnes, Chris Hatcher and Andrew Heaney for Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, Miguel Rojas and cash.
OF A Gonzalez (35)
C Barnes (27) - see Hernandez trade

Kershaw (29) - 7th 2006, resigned at age 27 to 6yr, $210M
Wood (26) - with Bronson Arroyo, Luis Avilan, Jim Johnson. Jose Peraza, Mat Latos and Mike Morse to the Dodgers. Dodgers sent Zachary Bird, Hector Olivera and Paco Rodriguez to the Braves. Dodgers sent Victor Araujo, Jeff Brigham and Kevin Guzman to the Marlins.
Maeda (29) - FA 2016, 8yr/$25M (probably another $25M for his rights)
Ryu (30) - FA 2013, 6yr, $36M from Korea
Hill (37) - FA 2017, 3yr, $48M
McCarthy (33) - FA 2015, 4yr, $48M
Darvish (30) - trade for A.J. Alexy, Willie Calhoun and Brendon Davis
Urias (20) - signed out of Mexico.

Jansen (29) - 2017 FA, 5yr/$80M
Stripling (27) - 5th rd 2012
Baez (29) - LA signing 2007
Fields (32) - 2016 trade, for Yordan Alvarez
Avilan (27) - obtained in Wood trade
Morrow (33) - SFA

The big spending days are over, Kershaw was a big money extension at age 27, signed through his peak years.
Jansen was the one big splurge, for an elite closer, who they already had and knew what they were buying.
So their two big deals are players they know, not someone another team didn't want to pay
Other than that, it's the farm system and judicious trades. And good drafting, 3 young starters, #18, 4th rd and 11th rd.
They traded a lot of 2nd tier prospects, but kept the ones they considered their best prospects.

This is what I expect from Jordan, starting this winter, but especially next winter.
Once they identify the probable starting players and starting pitchers, he'll start moving extra guys for positions of need and to free up room at Lehigh for PT for the next generation of prospects.

LoneStarPhan 2017-09-02 03:24:40 UTC #752

zambonir 2017-09-02 03:50:59 UTC #753

While I think too much is made of the coaching staff (and the manager) the reality is, this is basically the Ryne Sandberg staff that Amaro hired. There's still not a single fresh face or true outsider. At least Bowa seems to have exceeded expecations.

I think some coaching changes would make sense, if Mackanin is staying. I don't think his loyalty to McLure, whatever it may be (it's not like they have a long history together) would trump Klentak's wishes. If McLure stays, that means the GM does not share the opinion that he's a problem. I mean, this coaching staff isn't supposed to win, so if they were actively hindering development that would be malpractice.

Funny, that. Having a serious World Series contender become pitching-desperate while you have the guy they want most is pretty lucky. Wonder what they would have given up for Hellickson.

zambonir 2017-09-02 05:44:05 UTC #754

I like Klentak, btw. His quotes here are great.

LoneStarPhan 2017-09-02 06:13:44 UTC #755

I hope more and more phans come to understand the value Herrera adds to the team.

From the above link:

Only four centerfielders – Mike Trout, Charlie Blackmon, Christian Yelich, and Ender Inciarte – have a higher WAR than Herrera since he joined the Phillies in 2015.

Just think the Phillies could have had Inciarte over that same period if the small minded PTBs back in 2012 had been willing to admit that they needed to build for the future and not add another AAAA player who could marginally contribute to the perception that they still had a competitive team.

donaldorc 2017-09-02 07:28:22 UTC #756

I remember when many posters on this board and others salivated about bringing Kerrigan on as pitching coach. When he finally arrived with a lot of fanfare, he was a big bust.

California_Dreamin 2017-09-02 08:41:12 UTC #757

donaldorc...oh I don't think that was the case at all. Phils had a solid staff when Kerrigan was PC. They were mostly veterans and had problems with Bowa a bit but I thought Kerrigan did a good job. Problem was probably that there was so much fanfare, expectations were too high. But he was solid, as was Dubee.

EDmuch 2017-09-02 12:36:36 UTC #758

Looking at the standings today ......... we are definitely playing ourselves out of the first pick. The Giants and the White Sox
are demonstrating true and serious ineptitude.

andyb 2017-09-02 13:11:56 UTC #759

What about the Dodgers would say that the spending days are over? They have spent big every single year. They eat contracts. They give big extensions to their players. They sign free agents to fill holes. In essence they do a much larger scale version of the strategy the Phillies should do. Every move they make is to get more WAR. And they are willing to pay more money for more WAR in some cases without regard for the cost of WAR. I fully expect them to get Otani and maybe keep Darvish if the rest of the season goes well for them. They have been aggressive internationally even under penalty.

But under no circumstances are the big spending days remotely over.

Austinfan 2017-09-02 13:27:01 UTC #760

The Dodgers give extensions and sign players to affordable contracts, they didn't chase big names. They preferred to resign their own, Turner, Kershaw, Jansen.
They bought out/traded the big contracts they inherited, to add players they considered more valuable.

They're doing exactly what I suggested the Phillies do, act like a $100M franchise with a $200M budget, that is, be efficient with spending money, but spend it when a good opportunity presents itself.

There's a psychological reason for following this strategy, if you maintain fiscal discipline in every decision, everyone in the organization thinks about finding advantages on the margin, instead of getting lazy, and depending on spending themselves out of mistakes. And your owner is far more comfortable spending money if he knows the FO is focused on not wasting his money.

andyb 2017-09-02 13:39:05 UTC #761

The Dodgers act like a $300M franchise with a $300M budget. You are just not watching carefully I guess. There is nothing about being a big-spending organization that precludes developing your own prospects as the first choice. That is perhaps the most irritating thing about your criticism of potential free agent moves. At no point does anybody ignore the need or desire to develop prospects. Prospects that develop are inexpensive talents that often let what you would term wasteful spending happen on big names. They are going to end up close to $300 million in payroll this year (started at $247 but have added Darvish, Granderson and others over the course of the year.

They have $171 committed so far next year. Maybe the development of a couple of young players mean they will be south of $250 million next year, but not much. Grandal and Wood will add another $10-$15 million in arbitration to start. They they'll probably get Darvish for $30 million. Then add a few complementary pieces like they have with Utley.

What about their behavior suggests they will actually not spend big money to add a player when they don't have a good young player in that position? Nothing. Spending money does not mean spending it stupidly like you often imply. Paying Darvish $30 million would not impact any young player and would make the team better.

Once again I ask the serious question of how you would spend the team's financial resources to make it better. Your answers have been completely inadequate because all they involve are unrealistic free agent offers and more trades for mediocre arms like Buchholz. In other words you have no plan to spend the team's money to make it better.

allentown 2017-09-02 14:18:28 UTC #762

I think we learned different lessons from the Phillies recent fall from grace, as relates to budget management. AF writes as one with a gut-level aversion to the Phillies getting in a fix by paying too much for too many of their own and other's faded or mediocre players. What I call patch-and-fill and the nostalgia express. This behavior was fiscally reckless, a total ignoring of the future, and a denial of the reality of the actual state of the core team at the time. I think AF sees deeply-ingrained fiscal responsibility as a way to prevent this from happening again.

I agree and lament that they did what they did, but don't think it was because of fiscal imprudence as an orgainizational tendency. No team had the Phillies history of frugality and that was still the Giles/Monty team.

If I've put too many words into AF's mouth, I'm sure he'll correct me.

I see two lessons from the Phillies fall from glory:

1) when you're on a roll and your team honestly is good enough, you have to be willing to bust budget for a year or two to win another WS. You have to even bust the lux cap, by at least a little, if that is what is needed in the short term. The stupidest thing the Phillies did in this period was to trade Lee in order to stay on budget, after acquiring Halladay. That killed a great chance for a second WC and initiated an unfortunate chain of events. It was just $9 million for one year, but that was too much for Giles/Monty. Really, they should not have taken back money in the Halladay deal and saved a prospect, so that in all was a $15 million over budget. A large market team that wants to win goes that $15 million over budget.

2) you just cannot sell out the future for the present to the extent the Phillies did. If you are going to trade prospects, you needed to spend about $3 million/year to replenish the farm. Most of these years were not hard-cap draft years and they were spend-whatever-you-choose international years.

These two points summarize the difference between the Dodgers' and the PHillies' approaches.

The current Phillies team would have a lot more revenue, had the owners been willing to spend just a little more, when it was needed to win a second WC (well, at least make our best effort to do so),

The gap year-- 2010, when we didn't have Lee, he pitched 212 IP: 13 games to a 2.34 ERA for Seattle and 15 games to a 3.98 ERA for Texas. We ran short of SP and added Oswalt at the cost of more prospects. We then went out and outbid the world to get Lee back for 2012, spending too much, for too long, for a guy going into his age 32 season, although he did give us 3 good years on the deal.