Where I disagree with Winkelman:
Williams 4/7 - I might even put him lower, mental toughness is a big part of success, so is discipline, I'm not sure he's ever going to be ML hitter, the raw tools are there, but at some point you have to ask if a player has the baseball IQ to focus, make adjustments and develop as a player.
Randolph 8/10 - I have a downward arrow, if he can't develop power he's a fourth OF even if he hits .300/.360/400 - i.e. LF without speed, great defense and no power have a limited ML future. Doesn't need great power, but has to be in the .150-.175 ISO range to be a legitimate top ten prospect.
Gowdy 10/20 - yes, he's polished for his age, but right now he's all projection, he's yet to pitch a full season, and basically not that different right now from say Falter or Elniery Garcia. That is, IF he fills out and adds velocity, IF he can last through a 26 start season, IF he can continue to refine his pitches. I don't like too many IFs on a top prospect. One problem with velocity numbers for starters below A ball is they often drop off with a normal workload - which is why Lakewood is such a key stop for young pitchers.
Kingery 11/24 - I'm not sold on him yet, he's 23 in AA, which is not young, he's undersized with limited pop, which means he's got to post a high OBP (like Hernandez) to be effective.
at age 22 Hernandez put up a .304/.345/.406/.751 at Reading, Kingery put up .293/.360/.411/.771 at Clearwater
at age 23 Hernandez improved with a .309/.375/.402/.777 in AAA ball, we'll see if Kingery can make a jump this year.
If he can match the same progress (a year older), his fielding gives him an edge, but another IF.
Gamboa 16/54 - don't care about the bonus, light weight LA IFs who can't hit are a dime a dozen in this organization, I don't expect him to tear it up until he gets some strength, but so far he's shown little. So to me he's a suspect until he shows a credible hit tool that can be projected going forward.
Ortiz 17/11 - this is where I ranked a player higher, because Ortiz answered the biggest questions, he's not a slug, he's not a whiff artist like Pujols, he held his own at age 17 and the power is unreal. That's the difference between him and Gamboa, the upside is much, much higher, and he's shown flashes of actually being able to reach it.
Stobbe 20/32 - had a solid debut in GCL, I think if he could stay at SS he'd be top 20, but as a 3B there's more uncertainty how good the hit tool and fielding will become. More a matter of my conservative approach to most rookie level players.
Dominguez 24/58 - yes, he flashes good but not great stuff, but he's 22 at Clearwater, and has a injury history and has never pitched a full load. To me, he's still a suspect until he takes a regular turn in the rotation, if he was 20, he'd be much higher, but at this stage in a career you want to see production as much as potential.
Tocci 25/43 - yes, he's still young, but he has a LOT of experience, it looks like he's maxed out after years of weight work, and there is still no pop (.078 ISO last year). If he had great speed on the basepaths and could put up a good OBP, he might be a potential leadoff hitter, but Coppola is the 90 lb weakling with that profile, not Tocci. So his future is probably a defensive replacement at best.
Anderson 26/12 - he was rising with his star when he blew out his elbow, he looks to be 100% back, he has both stuff and pichability.
Pullin 28/38 - while he's a feel good story, unless the power translates to Lehigh this year, he's got a limited future, the half-season at Reading, while not a ballpark artifact, isn't enough to overcome a mediocre career. As a LF with average speed, he needs to mash to have a chance. If he repeats last season's performance over 500 PA or so, then he jumps way up.
Romero 30/50 - 6'0 pitcher with decent but not great stuff, 19 at Williamsport and held his own, but marginal starter stuff and not a lot of projection. Remains to be seen what they saw to draft him so high (4th rd), they seem to have a lot of LA pitchers with similar profiles around the same age.
Arano 31/18 - At 21 dooinated A+ and didn't miss a beat at Reading in a late season cameo. Velocity jumped in relief, may not add velocity but 93-97 is good enough out of the pen if you have secondary pitches. Good setup men have more value than 5th starters.
Pujols 35/49 - At some point potential becomes a dirty word. A high K rate, low contact rate is not a good combination. And that's in the low minors. The LA Hewitt.
Canelo 36/48 - Time changes everything. After a year and a 1/2 at Cleareater, with no improvement, his hit tool is looking very shaky. Has the glove, but you need to get over .700 OPS in the minors, because you're likely to slip in the Show, .624 in A+ ball doesn't cut it, even if you're 21.
Morales 38/64 - Strictly based on his lack of good command, the stuff is there, but he could be the next Kilome or Cordero. Just me being skeptical until he throws stateside.
Gusman 39/ - How do you rank a very skinny 17 year old off a decent DSL season?
Gonzalez 40/65 same
Rodriquez 41/19 - How many LH RP throw 95? One year does not make a career, but he shot up the system once he went to the bullpen. If he shows any improvement in the slider, he's going to be with the big club this year.
Viza, 42/29 - Here's the young guy who does fill out and adds velocity, struggled a bit in Reading after he was promoted, but that's pretty normal. To me, he has more upside than say Romero.
Young 43/- - He's the stuff that baseball dreams are made of, but I'm too conservative to get excited until he starts say 15 games at Williamsport and shows progress.
Llovera 44/69 - Problem is a 20 year old in the GCL should dominate. He has the good arm, but at 21 needs to be tested in Lakewood before you know if he's for real.
Luis 45/67 - tools without performance is a problem, he's 21 this year and hasn't hit yet, while Tromp took a couple years, he's still suspect, Luis is a bigger suspect.
Stephen 46/63 - a guy who's a question to start in rookie ball is the definition of suspect, that is, he's projected as a LF without speed or power, a poor man's Randolph.
Taveras 48/79 - he looked good in Lakewood at age 22, but that's the problem, he's maxed out and doesn't have great stuff, hard to see him as a prospect until he keeps performing at a higher level.
Edgar Garcia 49/39 - he's a little on the small side, but showed solid stuff out of the pen at age 19 and wasn't intimidated by Lakewood. I have him higher because he has a good shot of making it, even if only in a 6-7th inning role.
Guys I had in the top 50:
- Rivero – has the RP FB, added a slider, fast riser with a *, dominated Clearwater, held his own in Reading at 21
- Therrien - did nothing for four seasons, then broke out with 95 FB, plus curve, impressed in 2016 with continued progress
- Joaquin - 93-95, secondary pitches are meh, more control than command, but a live arm. Struggled at Reading, then dominated at Clearwater.
- Gilbert – average stuff for a LH SP, but great control
- Stassi - didn’t match his Reading numbers, but solid Int League season >806 OPS), LH bat, plus fielder, winter performance gives him a shot
- Fanti – question whether he’d add velocity, but totally dominant in the GCL
- Coppola – speed, hits, gets on base, decent arm, fast, prototype leadoff CF
- Watson – recovered the lost velocity, now he has to show he can pitch
- Singer – one of Cinderella’s coachmen, will he turn into a rat or continue the magic
- Numata – showed a lot of improvement 2nd year in Clearwater, converted IF looks like he’s getting comfortable, but age is an issue
What does stand out is how deep the system has become, a guy like Watson, who was a top pick and seems to be bouncing back from arm troubles, can't make a top 50 list?
