2017 Phillies Top Prospect Lists

California_Dreamin 2016-12-28 16:10:47 UTC #61

One of the comments that Sickels made in his Q & A session that is well worth noting was when he was questioned about Altherr's potential.

Sickels said AA would be a high B+/A- prospect with great tools and would be a strong "buy low" guy if the Phils decided to put him on the market. He did say that with every year that AA doesn't play a full season hurts his chances of ever making it big but is still very high on the tools of the Phil's potential RFer.

I always believed that perhaps the worst blow the Phils received in 2016 was the broken wrist suffered by Altherr in spring training last year. Not only was he primed to be one of the team's starting OFers but a likely middle of the order guy.

His injury turned what looked like a fairly stable OF situation into a veritable Who's Who of " starting outfielder of the week" in Philadelphia.

His recovery this spring is in my mind a very under reported story of the Phils 2017 season. At least Sickels seems to thing so also.

julio 2016-12-28 16:14:27 UTC #62

His potential recovery, which perhaps is under-discussed. At this point, there's no spring 2017 recovery to report about. And we really don't know whether there will be a recovery - although I think most of us are really pulling for that!

We still need that left-handed power bat, though, whether Altherr bounces back or not.

phillychuck 2016-12-28 16:20:57 UTC #63

I agree that Altherr's injury really messed with last season's outfield. I thought he, Herrera, and whichever other guy got hot or matched up well would be a good, productive OF. Geodel, Paredes, Lough, Hunter, Asche, and Boujos played way too much.

Note--I still think Asche might make it as a productive player, just not an outfielder.

andyb 2016-12-28 17:04:47 UTC #64

I guess the downside of signing another OF bat like Saunders or Moss would be to hurt Altherr's potential development. It may very well be worth it to give him the first half of the season to sink or swim (though I would also throw out that Saunders or Moss would probably be better than Kendrick or as a platoon half still help the team).

Clearly the goal is not to win this year. But if the goal is also to get higher end young prospects playing time we could argue for lots of playing time being given to Altherr, Crawford, Alfaro, Quinn, and others (Williams) later in the year.

I do think we need a goal of competing in 2018. They still can get close to my other goal of being competitive (i.e. a .500 club) in 2017. They have actually built a pitching rotation that could be pretty good and is deeper than most. The bullpen is much improved. I would love them to unleash a 2-inning late inning monster in Appel in the second half of the season as well. Decent rotation, better bullpen. And young starting 8 that could improve. All are good ingredients though there are tough decisions to also be made on these young players:

Is Altherr for real? What do we do when Crawford comes up as soon as June? If second half Rupp is closer to reality than first half Rupp, should we start the Alfaro era earlier. Will another young OF earn serious playing time (Quinn/Williams?). Is Cesar for real (part of the Crawford question).

I have a feeling that health and competition will sort out the starting pitching questions. The position players, however, might have situations where we should play the younger player like Altherr over veterans like Kendrick who might be a tiny bit better in the present. Same with Crawford/Galvis and Alfaro/Rupp. Getting them over some of the rookie bumps in the road in 2017 may be a key ingredient of contending in 2018.

Carver 2016-12-28 17:20:02 UTC #65

I absolutely love the upside of AA, and yes the wrist injury was a huge blow last year. I write the whole year off as his hitting production once he came back was impacted heavily by the healing process.

His D; his arm; his wheels and his raw power are clearly there. It just comes down to contact and plate approach maturing and he showed enough signs of that to entice. But this is his year to prove he can make those adjustments.

I still think that the Phils should have picked up another quality OF before last season...the parade of incompetence out there was embarrassing. And this year they need a good lefty bat at minimum out there, and could have gone bigger. I don't believe in waiting around for prospects for years...Williams and Cozens are probably not ready to contribute much even this year, and Quinn has yet to be healthy at any point in his career. So put a major league outfield together and let the youngsters force the issue by showing that they are ready.

allentown 2016-12-28 18:10:32 UTC #66

One has to wait a normal time for prospects. Williams and Cozens are both young for their level. Quinn doesn't have that many minor league AB. It is easy to say that prospects must force their way onto the team, but that just doesn't happen with the Phillies. Vets own their positions in this organization and new guys move in when they seize an injury opportunity or they step into a planned gap.

We didn't go big enough this winter to make adding a LH OF bat any sort of season changer. Give Altherr a chance and don't expect him to excel early in the season. Returns from wrist injuries tend to be slow.

Austinfan 2016-12-28 22:55:18 UTC #67

The reason Sixto is well ahead of someone like Gowdy is at the same age he doesn't need projection - 92-94 with command is more than good enough to be a dominating starter if he's developing solid secondary pitchers. Where size matters with pitchers is if he was overthrowing to generate velocity (which hasn't been reported), and projection - but projection only matters with someone like Kilome who initially didn't have great velocity but grew into his body and his velocity shot up. With Sixto, the compact frame aids command ("less moving parts") and if he already has ML velocity, projection becomes irrelevant.

The wrist injury is concerning with Altherr b/c he only really showed it for one season where he improved his plate discipline - since he's unlikely to be a good contact hitter, discipline and power are his calling cards combined with his speed and defense. .260 with plate discipline - .260/.350/.460/.810 would work fine with plus plus fielding in RF.

allentown 2016-12-28 23:22:39 UTC #68

An .810 OPS would work fine with only average fielding in RF. An .810 OPS is quite good at the MLB level. Highest OPS on the Phillies last season was Tommy Joseph (.813), next highest is Odubel at .781. I'd be thrilled to have a young RF put up an .810 OPS for us this season, with ordinary, MLB average D.

Austinfan 2016-12-28 23:28:09 UTC #69

As Mike Schmidt demonstrated, if you can field, draw walks and hit HRs, batting average and strikeouts are fairly unimportant.

bkeich 2016-12-29 00:11:08 UTC #70

One of the reasons I would like to see them sign Moss is he really provides solid backup for 5 positions. He can backup or start at 1B, LF and RF if there is a need, but by having him on the team you can also slide him into the lineup and cover CF and 2B with the guys that he fills in for (I e. Slide Kendrick to 2B for Hernandez).

Since Moss hits LH he provides real help for Joseph against tough RH pitchers.

I don't know what Moss's asking price is, but honestly I think we can easily offer him a 2 year contract at above market value and reasonable convince him that he could start 130 games even as our 9th position player because of the makeup of the team.

andyb 2016-12-29 01:14:39 UTC #71

Sixto is not well ahead of Gowdy at this point. He is only a small bit ahead as a prospect. At 6'4" and 170 Gowdy has plenty of physical projection left. He is also polished so there is less of what Kilome needed to do, but in terms of physical projection they were not far apart as 18-year-olds.

Shorter pitchers tend not to add velocity as they mature as much as taller pitchers like Gowdy. And Sanchez' velocity is already there. Notice also that he did not have a great K rate in rookie league. Not sure if that is because he pitched to contact or his secondary pitches are undeveloped, but it has hurt the prospect status of Medina already who has some of the same issue.

This is not to knock Sanchez as a prospect at all. He is a very good prospect. But he also has a number of things to get past before you can project him as a solid #3 starter or better. Gowdy has different questions but probably has a higher ceiling if everything comes together. Sanchez slots slightly ahead of him at this point but Gowdy is very good and very underrated. People are making far too much of his pitching only 9 innings. Good or bad, rookie performance does not matter that much. Gowdy flashed really good stuff and a variety of pitches. He should be seen as almost as good a prospect as Sanchez and the 3rd best pitching prospect in the system at the moment.

fish 2016-12-29 04:18:13 UTC #72

I find it interesting that Sixto Sanchez doesn't garner Anderson Espinoza comps. They are basically the same player- performance, body, stuff... Espinoza just has a level higher experience at an age 4 months older than Sanchez. I think this would be an instance of a clear Red Sox prospect biase and while I wouldn't have traded Espinoza for Pomeranz, I think the Sox knew just how much how big of a question mark Espinoza is (just as Sanchez is until he performs at higher levels).

andyb 2016-12-29 04:57:57 UTC #73

Definitely some similarities. Espinoza was a little younger in his GCL year and had a higher K rate. Probably a little more projection because he is not as thickly built, though of course that could mean Sanchez is built for more innings. Espinoza probably deserves to be ranked higher at this point but that could easily change if Sanchez has a good year. Pitching in Lakewood will help his stats so maybe he'll benefit from some park effect bias (Greenville leans towards offense in the SAL while Lakewood is pitching-friendly).

Slinging_Southpaw 2016-12-29 15:24:18 UTC #74

California_Dreamin:

One of the comments that Sickels made in his Q & A session that is well worth noting was when he was questioned about Altherr's potential.

Sickels said AA would be a high B+/A- prospect with great tools and would be a strong "buy low" guy if the Phils decided to put him on the market. He did say that with every year that AA doesn't play a full season hurts his chances of ever making it big but is still very high on the tools of the Phil's potential RFer.

I always believed that perhaps the worst blow the Phils received in 2016 was the broken wrist suffered by Altherr in spring training last year. Not only was he primed to be one of the team's starting OFers but a likely middle of the order guy.

His injury turned what looked like a fairly stable OF situation into a veritable Who's Who of " starting outfielder of the week" in Philadelphia.

His recovery this spring is in my mind a very under reported story of the Phils 2017 season. At least Sickels seems to thing so also.

CD, welcome back.
I couldn't agree more. There isn't a player on this team that I like more than Aaron Altherr. My worst nightmare is them bringing in a veteran that pushes Altherr into a reserve role. For me, this coming season, he's my Right-Fielder(even though I'd rather see him in CF), no questions asked. I'm not talking about he is my Right-Fielder, but if he gets off to a slow start we start jerking him around, "he is there" this coming season.

zambonir 2016-12-30 01:19:43 UTC #75

I'd be happy with this and it seems likely. But I worry a full season won't be enough for him to bounce back (ie it takes almost a full year to be healthy and then another half-season to regain your timing/power).

Plus it's possible he never does bounce back, and if that's the case we'll never know if it was the injury or if he wasn't going to be a major league starter in the first place. But unless Quinn wins a starting job out of ST Altherr should get four months at least.

phillychuck 2016-12-30 06:33:51 UTC #76

There is a guy I think they could get...in 2015 he was in AA, posted a 149 OPS+ and was named the MVP of the league. Also was named most outstanding defensive 1B. Went to AAA in 2016, had a bad start (.227 at the end of May) but finished with an 816 OPS, 134 OPS+, and named to the all-first-year-player team at the end of the season. Plays a little OF, but much better at 1B. Will be 27 next year.

And it won't cost any prospects. (Stassi)

bkeich 2016-12-30 14:50:01 UTC #77

Problem with Stassi is that he may not be credible in the OF. If he is strictly a 1B then he really doesn't add much flexibility and using one of the bench spots for a 1B only is hard, but not impossible.

Probably would have been smart to get him of playing time last year if they intended to look at this.

Philsmania 2016-12-30 15:30:22 UTC #78

A lot of comparisons were made between Altherr's injury and Mark Texeira's. Texeira stated that it took him a full 18 months to fully recover from it. Could that be why they may not be expecting much from Altherr this season? If it takes Altherr 18 months, that would put him at full strength next (not this coming) spring training.

zambonir 2016-12-30 16:55:15 UTC #79

Yup. Altherr is much younger than Texeira was, so that's good. OTOH there are other players who never came back from that injury (or from other types of wrist injuries).

But if he was an established starter (or made Texeira money) he'd play through that.

xogfog 2016-12-30 17:20:16 UTC #80

Nice article on Thomas Eschelman on BA, free read: