2017 Phillies Top Prospect Lists

[andyb]

You contradict yourself. You say we've spent most of our money on position players, which is true. That makes our scouting success in finding pitchers all the more remarkable. The pitchers have largely been done on the cheap

No contradiction at all. What WAR have we actually realized from pitchers of late. It is guys like Ramos or Seve Gonzalez. We have not had a great pitching success lately. Maybe a Kilome or Sanchez make it but they are not there yet and I stand by the assertion that we got lucky with each. In terms of actual WAR guys like Galvis and Franco have actually delivered fair value for our investment. We have made much more progress with position players than pitchers in the last decade. Who cares about bang for the buck. In terms of producing actual major league value we have been much more on the position player side of late.

[Austinfan]

We invested nothing in Franco, Galvis and Hernandez, the LA guys we spent money on up to now have been meh at best, maybe Ortiz turns out to be a player, but he should be, given the size of the bonus. We've signed a lot of IFs, but no so far has stood out, except the ones we traded.

It's obvious we're doing much better with pitchers, one or two would be luck, but at some point you have to think they've found something they can exploit.

[bigegypt0417]

Moniak at #30

[allentown]

I think that this is probably correct, but it remains unproven. I think -- I think it's more than wanting to believe, that Sal and his scouts have found a method for successfully identifying LA teenagers who can become successful MLB pitchers, but it is possible that we are only identifying guys who can thrive in the lower minors. Thus far, we've just developed non-closer relievers who've played a bit in MLB. A guy like Neris is likely more than that, but in reality that remains to be seen. We were excited in the past about a lot of guys such as Elizardo Ramirez and Sev Gonzales who were simply very good pitchers in the lower minor leagues. A healthy skepticism is still called for, IMHO, wrt what seems to be a wealth of pitching talent below Reading -- really primarily below CLW.

[BtownFan]

You say we've spent most of our money on position players, which is true. That makes our scouting success in finding pitchers all the more remarkable....

That the Phils lack success in finding everyday Latino players with an ability to get on base (but swing well and field well) reminds me of the old Caribbean adage that you can't walk off the island.

[Austinfan]

You have to look at stuff.

Sev has decent stuff, but not top stuff, but I think the Phillies will regret letting him walk for nothing (unless they somehow land a real prospect).
I think they got frustrated with the lack of progress of his secondary pitches, but he'll be 24 this year, had a K per inning in the majors, and his velocity jumped in the pen.
As a starter he had marginal velocity (90-91) but never could find a set of secondary pitches that worked for him, in the pen he only needs one.
Ramirez at best projected as a backend starter.

Guys like Kilome, Medina and Sanchez have elite stuff. If they were in the US draft at age 18 they'd be 1st or 2nd round picks.
Some other guys like Dominquez have good stuff but more shaky development histories.

What I think they've figured out is how to identify LA pitchers who might add velocity as they fill out, and then went out and bought a lot of these low cost "lottery tickets."

[allentown]

I think the problem is more that we've drafted position players at the extremes: either the unathletic, slow, poor defenders who we hope will develop power like Encarnacion and Ortiz (and we've dumped an incredibly large percentage of our budget here, so it represents a huge bet. This is where Sol is weak. You have to hit on your largest bets, because that is serious money that could be spent elsewhere), or fleet, athletic, great fielding, even plus hit skill guys who are so incredifly weak and thin that they have to change their whole body structure to succeed. We've not signed the well-rounded, hit and field and have some size guys, who cost more. The Ortiz money certainly would have bought one of these guys, so would have the Encarnacion money, but these commitments in LA are made a year or even two ahead of turning 16, and the PHillies just weren't spending that sort of money, so the agents probably didn't even include them and we got Encarnacion and Ortiz, because that was what was left in the big $ category (no idea if that is actually true, but I find it a more optimistic assessment than Sal went out with a pocket full of money and actually decided that Encarnacion and Ortiz were the primo talents. As with LGJ and Hewitt, when you whiff on the guys you totally fall in love with as an organization, it means a deficiency in talent among the guys who have to do the final sign-off. There are misses in the best organization, but LGJ and Hewitt weren't close -- they just were obviously awful picks.)

[bigegypt0417]

Crawford #5

[xogfog]

MLB Top 100

Alfaro 72
Moniak 19
Crawford 7

[allentown]

Oops -- meant to say signed LA position players at the extremes.

[Philsmania]

MLB Top 100

Alfaro 72
Moniak 19
Crawford 7

That list isn't too good for us. Only Moniak goes up. Thompson graduates. Williams falls all the way off.

[allentown]

Williams is a huge question mark. I think any evaluator who saw Williams play in several games the last month of the season would promptly remove him from their top 100 list.

[Austinfan]

Phillies have a lot of guys with high ceilings, but right have a lot of uncertainty, Ortiz, Sanchez, Kilome, Cozens, Tirado, etc.
They could jump into the top 100 or out of the picture by September.
Even Alfaro isn't a sure thing, great tools but has yet to put it together at the plate.
Example, Ortiz at age 18 goes to Lakewood and hits 30+ HRs and in the .280 area, he's in the top fifty next year because he has filthy power, but right now no one knows if he can hit.

However, outside of the top 20 or so, and they're not sure things, I'd say there isn't much difference between the next 80 and the 100 behind them.

[California_Dreamin]

When the Giles trade was originally announced one of the players included was left handed hitting outfielder Derek Fisher, a power hitting center fielder.

A few days later, ostensibly due to concerns about VV's elbow issues, the trade was re-configured and Mark Appel was added and Fisher was subtracted. There were also rumors that the Phils found some issues with Fisher's knee but they were unconfirmed and he never had any leg problems this year with the Astros.

What he did have was a solid season, one that elevated him to the #83 best prospect in baseball and while I completely agree that continued discussions about DeLeon are useless since he was NEVER even rumored to be coming to Philadelphia, Fisher was and I wonder if the Phils will rue not completely the original deal as announced.

While I was very happy when Appel was added, I admit that it bothered me a bit that the Phils made the deal without getting even one hitter back [they got 5 pitchers] and I always like bringing in hitters, especially in today's game.

I have to admit that I will be sneaking peaks at Derek Fisher this year, much as I have with players like Singleton and Santana when they were coming up through the Stros system.

[andyb]

Law top list is a little different:

Philadelphia Phillies: Top prospects report

1. Crawford
2. Moniak
3. Alfaro
4. Hoskins
5. Cozens
6. Kingery
7. Appel
8. Quinn
9. Garcia
10. Kilome
11. Gowdy
12. Williams
13. Medina
14. Randolph
15. Sanchez
16. Arano
17. Brito
18. Tirado
19. Ortiz
20. Pinto
21. Pivetta
22. Lively

Clearly he still likes Appel's stuff and does not like Sanchez (mainly his secondary pitches) and Randolph (lack of power, defense). To his credit he seems to do an original, non-crowd sourced list. I do think Appel is underrated in many of these lists but he would not be in my top 10 (more 15-20 for me). Sanchez is an interesting case because he is a GCL pitcher who is very far away from the major leagues and lacks a whole lot of projection. While 15 seems low, I could see why some would place him behind guys like Kilome, Gowdy, and Garcia (who may be seriously underrated as a prospect).

[California_Dreamin]

Clearly he likes Appel so much that he has him listed twice..#3 and #7! My guess is that #3 is really Alfaro.

[andyb]

Clearly he likes Appel so much that he has him listed twice..#3 and #7! My guess is that #3 is really Alfaro.

Small typo...

[California_Dreamin]

And frankly, I am tired of hearing Law say how the Phils minor league system stalled in 2016, this is simply so much bunk. They had the #1 or #2 best record in minor league baseball, and did it with prospects. Almost every club came out on a daily basis with a pitcher we considered a prospect and while its true that Williams stalled, I can name 10 that came out of nowhere.

And another thing...Law makes it sound as if the Phils draft was a complete waste of time, again baloney. He seems to think Stobbe is Juan Bell for goodness sake and the Phils actually had 7-8 signees that showed solid potential for eventual major league growth.

I know that many swear by Law and I acknowledge he has his resume. But I still believes that the Phils refused to pay his check for lunch several years ago and he has had it in for them ever since and simply cannot let it go.

It is simply untrue that the Phillies system stalled, its baloney. I would take a year like last season ANY time. And I am tired of hearing that the only reason that Hoskins and Cozens hit so many home runs was because of the park they played in. An awful lot of players went through Reading and didn't produce power numbers like theirs and I prefer to allow the guys to play than constantly find reasons to question their skills.

I admit I take Law with less than a grain of salt...and I like salt.

[California_Dreamin]

andyb...one question....IF the Phils had kept Derek Fisher in the Astro deal, where do you believe he would rank on the Phillies prospect list?

[andyb]

andyb...one question....IF the Phils had kept Derek Fisher in the Astro deal, where do you believe he would rank on the Phillies prospect list?

I know he made the end of some top 100 lists, but to me he looks a lot like Cozens. He made it to AAA (but at almost a year older), but they have some similarities. Both are 20/20 guys. Cozens has more power. Fisher draws more walks. Both seem OK defensively but nothing special. I guess the top 100 ranking is one level closer proximity-wise. For the Phillies that puts him in the 4-6 range noting that many still like Williams above both Cozens and Hoskins.