2017-18 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[phillychuck]

Klentak's problem is he still has a lot of unresolved questions concerning the players he might trade.

He could trade a AAAA starter type to a team that needs starter depth and is willing to take a risk..but which one? Eflin, Thompson, Leiter, VV, Eshelman, Anderson, and Eickhoff all have warts but might be good. If a team calls and asks for one of them it would sort of make me reluctant to trade the one they want...what do they see?

He can trade a catcher, but Knapp and Alfaro aren't (proven to be) as good as Rupp at his best, and Rupp's not going to bring back a ton. Easy to make the wrong choice here, too. And our minor league catching depth is currently not outstanding.

He can trade Joseph, but the return will be almost nothing.

Now it gets interesting. He can deal one or two of Galvis, Crawford, Hernandez, Franco, and Kingery. I would prefer dealing Galvis and waiting on the others, but everyone's take on this is likely to be different. The return will be different, too. Very easy to give away a pretty solid player (Hernandez or Galvis) for little return if you don't negotiate or evaluate well.

Finally, he can trade young minor league pitching. Once again, you'd have to get a pretty solid return for some of those guys (Kilome, Sixto, etc.) and trades like that can really blow up in your face. And the team you're trading with would have to embrace the risk, too.

I don't envy Klentak this off-season.

One more thing--the ideal trade for the Phils would be to package assets together to acquire a pretty solid # 2 starter, but compression trades are very hard to make from the position of the team putting in the multiple assets--they're usually initialized by the team trading away the "star" (like we did with Hamels, Schilling, Rolen, etc.). I guess he needs to keep his ear glued to his cell phone...and hope the Marlins rumors are real.

[philsphan67]

I think andyb has it right. The Phils have payroll flexibility and they should be willing to buy expensive players (maybe not the perfect fit) while not giving up possible future stars. A team that wants to dump a higher salaried guy will take a Joseph, Rupp and lower tier minor leaguer. Not all of these trades will help, but they won't hurt either. The Phils have shown the last few years they are willing to eat contracts and DFA players who don't help their team. The Phils are still wading in the water to find out when their stars are ready and when they are ready to add a big name IMO.

[zambonir]

If it's important to improve the rotation for 2018 with someone who is also going to be good in 2020, I'm just as comfortable trading away the next Gio Gonzalez (whether he's in single A or pitched in the majors this year) or J.A. Happ as I am giving someone a five-year $125 million contract. If it's for a good player, who is 27 or 28 instead of 30.

It's possible neither extreme will be necessary (or desirable).

[Austinfan]

MacPhail is also signalling agents that they're not going to be the "bigger fool" and throw money at pitchers.
And his comments on 30+ pitchers is right on target, you're paying for their last three years but getting their next five years.

Doesn't mean he won't pay, just that agents know they're not going to overspend.
Which tells me they'll wait out the first round of "greater fools" (a diminishing number as the last two FA sessions demonstrate, even with fewer QOs).
Then go shopping when the prices make sense.

Same with trading for a contract, Buchholtz wasn't a bad idea except he was Buchholtz, that is, with a bad track record of getting injured.

I can see them spending $60-80M on 1-2 year deals like last year, maybe a 3 year deal for the right pitcher, but no 5 year deals (Darvish is not an elite pitcher).
This year is different because they won't be interested in players like Kendrick or Saunders, only pitchers and bench players.

[California_Dreamin]

I believe there is a very interesting dichotomy going on right now within the Phils hierarchy and it will be fascinating to watch it all unfold.

To wit...it seems obvious to me that Middleton is pretty much what we hoped he would be, a guy who wants desperately [I want back that blank blank trophy was what he said after the 2009 WS] to win and is prepared to spend lavishly in order to do so.

McPhail, true to his roots and experience, wants the slow and steady progress, and seems almost unwilling to spend his way to any shotcuts. It is worth noting that McPhail has never worked in an organization that has as much financial resources to spend as do the Phillies and this may simply not be a comfort zone for him yet. Instead, he talks of spending on fields, fan experience and the like, things he probably had to think about often when he was running organizations that A] had little chance of winning but B] still wanted to attract decent attendance numbers.

Klentak has clearly put his face on the bullseye by firing Peter Mac and the pressure will now be on him to make the correct choice in managers because as McPhail reminded him, "you only have so many managers to hire before it falls back onto you." For his part, Klentak seems very comfortable in his own skin and has continued to preach a consistent message throughout his reign as Phillie GM.

It seems natural to me that there will be some pulling and tugging going forward within the three branches of Phillie government...Middleton wanting to win NOW, McPhail believing the tortoise always beats the hare in a long race, and Klentak somewhat in between both views.

If these three can somehow find a way to get along its quite possible that the Phils will have a stable and solid managerial organization for quite some time. If not? I simply cannot see Middleton allowing mediocrity to abound in Philadelphia much past 2018, maybe 2019.

Remember, it was Gillick who largely chose McPhail, not Middleton. Thus Middleton will have no compulsion to keep McPhail if he feels their views on success are different. I still recall Jimmy Rollins calling Middleton the George Steinbrenner of the NL, and while I took that to be a large compliment, and it was, I also took it to mean that Middleton would not settle for losing for too long.

2018-2019 are likely to be quite defining moments in Phillie baseball history. Right now, the team could still go either up or down, depending of what happens this off season. I suspect its the former but can make a good case for the latter, if McPhail truly means he doesn't want to spend.

Regardless, we are definitely phans of a relevant baseball team again, after 4 years in the wilderness. For this, I am very grateful and excited.

[Austinfan]

I don't see a real problem, the problem comes when the owner DOESN'T WANT to spend.
Middleton has enough business sense to listen when he's told he'd just be throwing his money away.
But this gives Klentak a lot of flexibility, the money is there if the opportunity presents itself, but I think Middleton is smart enough to know "you can't hurry love."

If you could front load deals, I think MacPhail wouldn't mind spending Middleton's money, but that's not the way it works in ML baseball.
I suspect MacPhail would rather gamble on extensions on his own players over the next 2-3 years, locking up a young core.
Problem is it'll be hard to raise the payroll that way until 2021-22, but five to six year FA contracts will cut into flexibility when they really need it down the road.
So one way to make Middleton feel better is to spend his money on items that don't count against the cap, like more scouts, teams, facilities, etc.

[bigegypt0417]

I believe there is a very interesting dichotomy going on right now within the Phils hierarchy and it will be fascinating to watch it all unfold.

To wit...it seems obvious to me that Middleton is pretty much what we hoped he would be, a guy who wants desperately [I want back that blank blank trophy was what he said after the 2009 WS] to win and is prepared to spend lavishly in order to do so.

McPhail, true to his roots and experience, wants the slow and steady progress, and seems almost unwilling to spend his way to any shotcuts. It is worth noting that McPhail has never worked in an organization that has as much financial resources to spend as do the Phillies and this may simply not be a comfort zone for him yet. Instead, he talks of spending on fields, fan experience and the like, things he probably had to think about often when he was running organizations that A] had little chance of winning but B] still wanted to attract decent attendance numbers.

If this front office and ownership is smart they are going to save their pennies for next years crop of free agents. I know a lot can change in a year but this really isn't the year to go crazy. Now if we're hearing the same message a year from now I think we have a problem.

[bkeich]

Problem with that BigEg is it is more or less exactly what was said last year. I fear we are in a cycle.

[zambonir]

I'm sure MacPhail, Klentak and MIddleton walked out of that meeting with the same intention Klentak has had all along...to make every effort to sign one of next year's top guys to an insane contract. Once you are at $300 million for Manny Machado does it matter if you go to $350? (Assuming the Phillies would have to outbid a better team). At the same time, MacPhail also acknowledged that every team is gearing up for that free agent class.

I guess it may have been said last year to some extent but 2019 has always been the target, both for the free agents and the winning. The goal of finishing this season with zero payroll obligations was freely stated and fully met. They're still going to add payroll but that doesn't have to mean adding 2021 obligations.

Had Franco not cratered he'd probably be the next contract extension, and Nola will have one soon too. If Williams and Altherr hadn't worked out, they'd have to sign JD Martinez or something. But now they don't.

[allentown]

I agree. Potential big FAs have a habit of re-signing with their own team or being traded and extended with their new team. It is like the grass on the other side of the fence: upcoming FA markets always look better than the current year, because they haven't been winnowed down.

As some have said, too bad you can't front-load a baseball deal. True enough, but you can shorten one. You don't have to give any player 5, 6, 7 years on a deal. They don't care about that. They care about how much money they are guaranteed and the quicker they get that money, the happier their agent and they are. So if it takes $125 mil over 6 years to sign a guy, give him that $125 mill over 4 seasons. Everyone's happy and we have reduced the risk of dead money in years in which our salary budget will be tighter.

In terms of future salary constraints, giving a 6 year deal today is equivalent to a 5-year deal a year from now and a 4-year deal 2 years from now. The longer you wait, the greater the odds of dead FA money hobbling the team in future seasons. Now we have so much cap space and so few players anywhere close to needing to be resigned, that money spent on FAs really is absolutely no issue. It's as if our budge $/salary cap space is effectively infinite.

I also have a very hard time believing a team which sees over-priced and gets sticker shock at the thought of Darvish at perhaps $125-160 mill is actually going to sign a Machado or Trout or Harper for say $350 million, which is like a fair approximation of what it would cost.

Now is the time to add good pitching to make next year's team competitive. Not to do so is to waste the chance of a competitive season. To add pitching by trading any of our good prospects, instead of using $ and lesser prospects, is also to waste the big opportunity which our very low budget affords us.

So yes, I think MacPhail is wrong and short-sighted.

Last time round, the Phillies added major FA talent and expensive/extended in some cases talent from other teams very late in the process -- after we had already won the WC in 2008. The salary cap very quickly became a very serious problem for the team. I have a dim view of waiting until the team reaches say 88 wins and then spending big on FA. At that point our salary cap space window will be about to close.

[EDmuch]

My concern is that 2019 UFA's are not just going to looking at the pot of money they will be offered. All offers will be huge. They will also be looking at the quality of teheteam they will jion. We cannot afford to be a .430 team and expect big name UFA's to join us. Thus the rebuild has to begin this year with some decent pitching.Not the Buchholtz's of the world.

[zambonir]

There's not gonna be any Bucholtzs. If they trade for a pitcher it will be someone good - at an equivalent cost. And while they aren't going to sign one of the five best available FAs I still think they'll sign someone. Maybe it'll be a #4 type on a three-year deal, maybe it will be someone with more upside on a bounce-back one-year deal. But those kinds of signings can work out. We can't look at the three middlebrow pitchers Klentak has already signed and assume he's never going to get another good one from that approach, but he'll also be trying a different one this year.

The idea of frontloading and overpaying is certainly not a bad one but then you also have to really like the player. I don't think Yu Darvish is worth $35 million AAV for three years, which is probably what you'd have to pay to beat a $25 million AAV five-year deal (and the former would still be less guaranteed $). I suppose if Middleton really was Steinbrenner they'd do it.

Some combination of Hernandez or Galvis, and one of Eickhoff/Lively/Pivetta/Velasquez, plus a prospect or two, should be able to get you a good starting pitcher. The goal is to get someone better/younger than Darvish, it's not about being cheap or overly cautious. Then your other guy is more ordinary (and yes, potentially flippable, if more than one of the current group steps up).

[California_Dreamin]

I agree with both allentown and EDmuch...free agents almost never view a mediocre team and believe THEY will be the difference maker, they look at good teams and think they will simply make them better, and enhance their own chances of winning.

I doubt seriously that Manny Machado is reading box scores and saying, "hey, with Williams, Hoskins, Crawford and Alfaro that Phillie team is improving and with me added they will be very good!" He is saying, "man, that Yankee team is already good and with one more addition they can win a few WS championships over the next couple of seasons."

I also believe McPhails slow as molasses approach is incorrect and like I said before, I think its a product of his past, he simply is not used to being in charge of a franchise with near unlimited financial resources and an owner willing to spend them.

I hope Comcast exerts a bit of pressure here, we are now 3-4 years into that huge TV deal and I have to believe that to this point the return has not been what Comcast hoped nor expected.

[julio]

It seems natural to me that there will be some pulling and tugging going forward within the three branches of Phillie government...Middleton wanting to win NOW, McPhail believing the tortoise always beats the hare in a long race, and Klentak somewhat in between both views.

If these three can somehow find a way to get along...

If they can "somehow" find a way to get along? It's obvious that they're getting along, CD.

It's also obvious, I think, that they have somewhat differing viewpoints - but that they talk to one another, and that they generally come to agreement.

Further, I think you are over-reacting, and that your characterization of MacPhail as "slow as molasses" is almost certainly wrong.

I really don't see a melodrama here; I don't see any reason to try to imagine/create one.

[EDmuch]

Boy, look at the UFA class. There are a whole lot of Buchholtz's out there. In fact about 75-80% of them are Buchholtz's.

[zambonir]

I think you are giving MacPhail too much credit. This is Klentak, with MacPhail's approval and guidance, and he is using the Kansas City/Houston/Chicago model. The teams MacPhail previously ran (as a GM not a President) are ancient history.

Now, you can argue the Phillies, with their budget, don't need to follow those models, and MacPhail may also be keeping them from making their Jon Lester move if he simply doesn't believe in FA pitchers, period. But that belief is hardly crazy.

In any case, the Phillies are exactly on schedule based on those models and their own public statements. The only question/problem is they may not have the same level of talent, or that talent is further behind (at nearly every position: OF, C, SP, SS) than they'd hoped two years ago.

I just don't see this .500 finish and think, yeah, they're there, let's pick up the pace. If they sign a pitcher to a big FA contract and then it turns out they're still missing a starting OF (if Williams or Altherr don't take the next step) if it's going to take two seasons for Kingery and Crawford to find their way, it's not gonna be any easier to land those players who want to win in 2019.

But history also says that a ton of money and a bright future does get you free agents.You just have to have both. It got the Nationals Jayson Werth. It got the Cubs Jon Lester and Heyward. It got the DBacks Greinke.

Seems like kind of a circular argument anyway, if the Phillies have to be good this year in order to attract a FA in 2019, why would a free agent who helps make them good come this year?

[California_Dreamin]

julio...my quote, which you copied was not meant as a question and you will not find a question mark after it. It was meant as a statement and in fact is a true enough statement going forward. Yes, they are getting along swimmingly right now but Rosenthal and then McPhail himself indicated that there was some pushback from ownership about which road to take going forward.

Its worth noting that oft times when one person agrees to walk the path than another suggests, even though said person is not necessarily enamored with that path, trouble occurs at the first sign of poison oak.

My point remains the same...if the three can somehow find a way to get along, though I acknowledge that the word "continue" should have been in there for clarification.

And I still believe it will be a fascinating story to follow going forward as IIRC, it was reported that Middleton had made a visit to the clubhouse late in the season, something he had not done often since he took over the club. What does this mean going forward? Perhaps nothing.

But it could mean he intends to get more involved aka the George Steinbrenner of the NL. Not with the hair trigger temper of Steinbrenner of course but with the same determination to win now, win often and win consistently.

[Philsmania]

Trust The Process!

[California_Dreamin]

zambonir...a Lynn or Cobb are not even in the same universe as a Machado or Harper. A Lynn or Cobb are likely looking for a good financial deal, regardless of the club. So a Phillie offer of 3/50 would look better to them than a 3/40 offer from a playoff team.

But Machado or Harper will be looking at which team can get them to the WS quickest and most often since, as someone else mentioned earlier, if you spend $300 million, why not go $350?

I think its important that the Phils give the appearance in 2018 that they are not that far from being a top playoff level team in 2019 and I think Middleton feels the same way.

[andyb]

This is Klentak, with MacPhail's approval and guidance, and he is using the Kansas City/Houston/Chicago model.

Here is where I think you oversimplify. Those are 3 different models and monetarily the Phillies are somewhere in between the Houston and Chicago models. KC had no money so they are an outlier. And Chicago had the money for Lester where Darvish would be the equivalent this year.

Houston was in between on the investments they made. My guess is Klentak wants something closer to that model, though he also has a bit more revenue to work with in Philly.

Everyone. Yes everyone buys into the build with young talent philosophy. The real difference is whether they assess that they are potentially competitive in 2018 or not. This was close to a .500 team in the second half mainly playing young players that should improve over time. We are not that far away from competing and finding ways to use their money to supplement the young player base is important.