2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[tom81]

I'd rather have the young controllable position players, Herrera and Hoskins, than a young controllable pitcher. Less chance of an injury for the position player. Herrera is controllable to 2022 and Hoskins to 2023. We better be competitive in that time frame. just buy the pitcher or trade lesser players.

[zambonir]

The answer is obviously still to trade no one, as most people agree. Trading Herrera weakens the team in the short-term.Hoskins is probably not as valuable as we think because most teams are probably downgrading him in that same way, and he's a RH-hitting 1B in a market that doesn't lack for 1B. None of them need to be traded now before they end up being worthless; the value of finding out what all four of them are (and are worth) exceeds that risk for now).

[allentown]

None of them need to be traded now before they end up being worthless; the value of finding out what all four of them are (and are worth) exceeds that risk for now).

Exactly.

[EDmuch]

In reading all of baseball news that I can get to, one thing I have noted is that there is no longer any discussion or rumors about Cesar Hernandez being available in a trade. Between Neil Walker as a UFA and Josh Harrision as a tread target,, there hasn't been a mention of Cesar in over a month. I am wondering whether the Phils have simply decided to remove him from the market at this time and write him in as their lead off hitter unless some team comes begging for him in a trade.

[andyb]

I think the Phillies are hedging their bets with Cesar a bit. They probably do not really want to trade him in the division (i.e. to the Mets who have the need). And they probably want Kingery to play 2 months in AAA to delay free agency and super two status. And finally they probably are prepared to play either Kingery or Hernandez at 3B in June if Franco falters.

Add those factors up and it probably makes sense to wait. Some 2B also might get hurt so the market for 2B could be better mid-season than the thin market out there now.

[zambonir]

Well, there's no chatter about anyone or anything, in a way. But I think they never liked the offers for him, and they aren't getting better. Once they traded Freddy and acquired Santana it didn't really make sense to move him now. Break in one middle IF at a time. I suppose it will come up again if Kingery hits .400 in ST. but the service time delay is such SOP.

[baseballoldie]

If you were in the front office, there is no way you trade a player that has done things no other baseball player has ever done before. Hoskins is not going anywhere.

[Austinfan]

They also want Kingery to work on his plate discipline, if he's going to replace Hernandez, they'll want him to leadoff or bat 2nd, and to do so he needs an OBP > .350, So I think it's less delaying free agency (they have money to extend their own early) than not rushing him. He can spend a couple months learning to work a count and come up before the trade deadline.

[andyb]

If you were in the front office, there is no way you trade a player that has done things no other baseball player has ever done before. Hoskins is not going anywhere.

There were a half dozen players last year who did similar things that Hoskins did. And Hoskins was much more pedestrian in September/October (897 OPS) once the league got a better report on him.

I like Hoskins as a player. But in my mind nobody is untouchable. We are also playing Hoskins in the OF where he is less valuable. The only way I would trade Hoskins is if we got a lot in return. A whole lot. If Hoskins ends up 80% of the player he was last year, which would still be a good player, but can be traded for the value of 99% the player he was last year, why wouldn't we consider that.

This is independent of the impetus that says we have to trade an OF. I am actually fine going with 4 in case there is an injury. Of course if Quinn is healthy early in the year we would have five decent young OF. At that point we probably should trade somebody if we still have starting pitching holes.

[bkeich]

The other caveat with Kingery is he is not on the 40 man and does not need to be. They probably don't want to start the clock on him early and lose one of the 15 protected minor league player slots.

I think this means that Hernandez is not really someone they want to move at the moment. Once Galvis was traded the surplus the middle infielder issue was solved for this season.

[baseballoldie]

C'mon man - get real. You don't trade a player that hit 18 hrs in his first 170 MLB at bats. No ballplayer has ever done that before. He had a .396 obp, .618 slg and generated a 2.0 WAR in 50 games. Your comment about him being much more pedestrian in Sept/Oct (897 ops) is a weak attempt to support your position - I'd take a .897 OPS all day long - that would rank 25th in ALL of baseball in 2017! I hardly think that is pedestrian and makes me think you need to re-evaluate your definition of pedestrian. There is not a baseball person alive that would trade a player like Hoskins at this point in his career - instead they see what they have by playing him a full season. Its the only way to find out what you have and given his numbers in his first taste of the big leagues, you can't help but be excited about what he might do in a full season.

[julio]

God help Rhys Hoskins if he proves NOT to be the superstar that too many Philadelphia fans have already decided he is. Philly fans' response to disappointment is all too frequently angry and offensive.

I've been following and rooting for Hoskins longer than most here (how many of you watched his Australian Baseball League games with the Blue Sox two winters ago?), and since before the typical Phillies fan knew he existed. Rhys had a great run in 2017 - but the over-the-top reaction of casual fans (I might add, encouraged by the Phillies' PR department) scares me a bit, because Hoskins is probably not as good as he seemed to be this past summer. I'd hate to see the fan base turn on him.

[andyb]

There are just lots of cautionary tales out there. Hoskins has a lot of positives, but we do need to realize he hit in the majors last year well above what his minor league statistics (while good) would suggest. There was also talk of magic baseballs carrying farther last year.

Some cautionary Yankee tales:

Kevin Maas Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

Shane Spencer Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

[baseballoldie]

You mean like they have on Franco? I agree with what you are saying and Hoskins performance in 2017 has certainly generated the hype. We all agree it unlikely he will hit at the same level he did in 2017 and put up an OPS north of 1.000 but you never know which is why we need to see what he will do. He is a good hitter as he has proved throughout his professional career so lets all relax, stop the talk about trading him and lets see what he does.

[zambonir]

As with all these discussions, the reason NOT to trade someone is the same as the reason TO trade someone. If another GM actually values Hoskins the same way BoD does I'd certainly be listening to his offer, and it would be a really really big one. Of course if he is "only" a .900 OPS player then yes, that's okay too.

Also equally easy argue that if the Phillies were so high on Hoskins they wouldn't have acquired a 1B, or, conversely, that they love him so much they are willing to make him a LF (and possibly put up with lesser defense).

Only time will tell. This might be Hoskins' peak value, or he might have many all-star years ahead of him. But even though he has set a much higher initial ceiling, it's been a while since any Phillies youngster (Brown, Franco, Joseph) has stuck. We won't really know until 2020.

[baseballoldie]

And neither of these guys were traded after their first experience in the big leagues. That's my point. You don't trade a player that did what Hoskins did - you keep him and you see what you have.

[EDmuch]

Well if the Yanks offered Judge for Hoskins, you have to at least think about the deal.

[baseballoldie]

PS: I'm more concerned for Carlos Santana - God Help Carlos Santana if he only puts up his 2017 .818 OPS or his career .810 OPS over the next 3 years given the $60 million the Phillies are paying him. I don't think that will be good enough for Phillies phans.

[andyb]

Well if the Yanks offered Judge for Hoskins, you have to at least think about the deal.

I might think about Hoskins for Chris Archer. You have to give up something to get something.

[California_Dreamin]

No, andyb, you are simply wrong about this one. Look, I mostly agree with the things you suggest but suggesting dealing Hoskins for Archer is flat out wrong. Oh, you can make a case baseball stats wise about it but baseball is so much more than simply stats...its about identification with a team and player.

And right now, few if any players have so excited the Philadelphia phanbase, moribund after 5 miserable years, like Hoskins has. This would simply be a terrible PR move, one that would likely even see a backlash against Archer.

You do not move Hoskins, Crawford or Kingery, you just don't...at least right now, until we all fully know what we have in them.

While certainly not of the talent level ilk of Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas [not close] I believe in terms of popularity and identification, this move would be similar. Cincinnati fans, who loved Robinson, made life miserable for Pappas, and I could easily see the same thing happening with Archer.

Is he a good pitcher? Sure. Is he likely to captivate the Philadelphia phans like Hoskins did? Never. And heaven forbid if Hoskins becomes a 30+ home run hitter and Archer continues on his 10-12 wins a year pace.
Klentak would be pillarized.