2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[California_Dreamin]

Duquette, in the Baltimore Sun, indicated that a Machado move will be made by the end of the month so this thing is not going to drag out. I also wonder if the O's are using the White Sox and Card offers public in order to possibly move the Phils to increase their offer.

The Sox have indicated they are more inclined to let their youngsters grow than move them and the Cards don't seem to have the prospects the O's would want.

While I go understand both allentown's [time to try and add a top talent now] and andyb's [waiting might be better] views I think the Phils are uniquely positioned to make a huge leap forward with a Machado acquisition and I wonder if privately the Phils think the same thing.

The Marlins are now a Triple A team, the Braves are in a bit of a chaotic state, the Mets look worse and only the Nats look appreciably better than the Phils right now in the East.

My inclination is to go for it...and hope that Machado likes it in Philly and sets up a permanent home there. Just don't see the Phils getting him in 2018 free agency when he is being wooed by teams that Machado will be more familiar with [Yankees, Red Sox.]

[zambonir]

I think you are overlooking the history the Phillies' brass has with Machado. MacPhail drafted him and I think almost half the front office overlapped with him (would have to run the exact dates to know for sure, but Proefrock, Jordan, Rice, Klentak all might have). They also just added Ben Werthan who worked closely with the Orioles major league players (though he won't be doing that for the Phillies). That's not gonna get them 72 hours if he isn't giving it to anyone, but they should have just as good a shot if he hits free agency.

The shortstop thing has still gotta be an issue too. Should the Phillies go all in on a short-term Machado trade and move J.P. to 3B this season? Still smarter, IMO, to let Crawford get his footing, see how Franco pans out, and make that call next year. w/o giving up any talent.

[Austinfan]

Machado isn't a difference maker, no FA is, he'd help, but if you only won 66 games last year, 5-6 WAR just gets you to 72.
So it makes zero sense to give up major assets without an extension in hand.
One year of Machado has almost zero value to this franchise.

[andyb]

But if the Phillies were a 71.5 win team last year with pythagorean analysis of their record and their young talent could improve the team by 5-10 games by simply getting better (which is what one expects young players to do), a 5-win free agent puts them over .500. One player CAN make a difference.

Not that I am interested in a 1-year deal. Nobody is suggesting that so why even discuss it. I want to sign Machado for a 10-year deal and I am willing to pay prospects now if he would do that.

[allentown]

but if you only won 66 games last year, 5-6 WAR just gets you to 72.

The optimistic starting point is that the Phillies were close to a .500 team in the second half of the season, playing mainly with the kids.

[EDmuch]

AF and Klentak clearly have the same dim view of the Phils' future over the next 2-3 years. But by cracky, don't do a thing to improve short term, continue delaying making any major moves and leave it to the improved analytics department and by 2028 this team will be a juggernaut. Of course more than a few of us on this board will be dead by then.

[julio]

Not that I am interested in a 1-year deal. Nobody is suggesting that so why even discuss it. I want to sign Machado for a 10-year deal and I am willing to pay prospects now if he would do that.

If you're not interested in a one-year rental for Machado, there's no point in continuing to discuss trading for him. Duquette has made it clear that he will NOT make Machado available to discuss an extension prior to a trade. This from Roch Kubatko at MASN:

Roch Kubatko (masnRoch)

Now, I can't speak to why Duquette would take this position, since it will reduce his possible return for Machado... but when you think about it, Duquette isn't exactly regarded as a good GM, is he?

[Austinfan]

Last year's finish was a ray of hope, but probably fool's gold as well, Hoskins was playing over his head.
They could build on that, regress, get injured, surprise.

To me, the best reason for optimism is the depth of young starting pitching, you only need a couple to surprise, say Pivetta and Eflin which allows pitchers like Eickhoff and Lively to be pushed back to #4 and #5, where they're more than adequate.
The best reason for pessimism is that we haven't seen a full season out of Williams, Altherr, Kingery, Crawford, Hoskins, Alfaro, they could blossom, tank or not physically hold up.

I doubt you can negotiate an extension, both Harper and Machado are looking at 10 year, $350-400M contracts, at that point choosing where they want to go is more important than money - once you're filthy rich money has less value. So why would they lock themselves in this year when they can wait a season.

Best thing for Klentak is to stay the course right now, for all we know, maybe they discovered a flaw in Franco's swing (article about his low angle they're trying to correct, slow hitters shouldn't hit GBs) and he becomes a 35 HR 3B with a .800 OPS. Or not. But I doubt anything they do this year will make a difference next year when it comes to free agents, nor the Baltimore connections. So proceed as if the rebuild is still in progress, and if next year a mega free agent actually wants to sign here, so be it. But don't plan as if you can make that happen. Because like Ontani, those decisions wil probably depend on factors out of your control.

What you can control are the draft, LA signings, player development and trades.

[andyb]

Duquette has made it clear that he will NOT make Machado available to discuss an extension prior to a trade.

I just don't believe that for a second. If the Orioles could get a higher prospect return in a deal to a team where he would sign him to an extension they would do it in a second. And the agents talk about this all the time so Duquette is just doing the standard GM-speak to prompt teams to give him offers.

[zambonir]

Well, Duquette could give the window (which MLB then has to approve) but if Machado's agent isn't willing to actually talk, what's the point? It's in the Orioles' interest to grant the window and there's no real reason for Machado to care - unless he really doesn't want to go where the O's might send him. But in reality, any team willing to pony up for the one-year is probably a contender.

To me Klentak's view is optimistic. The impatience to improve the team now, and the worry that the team won't be good enough to attract FAs in 2018/2019 is pessimistic. It assumes that all the young pitchers are going to flop, that Franco isn't worth saving, that Williams and Altherr are not the corner OFs of the future, and that a core of Kingery, Hoskins, Herrera and Crawford won't be attractive to veterans. Which all might be true! But there's only one way to find out.There are three outcomes with these guys, that they have a future, that they are good enough to have trade value, or they flop. Could they cut bait right now on, say, Franco and Velasquez/Eickhoff (trade them for one #3) and even Williams/Altherr (platoon them and sign a LF) and win 10 more games (15 with Machado)? Possibly, but there would be risk and consequences there too.

But more importantly, we still don't know what's going on! They may yet sign Lance Lynn and Carlos Santana and trade for Marcus Stroman! Probably not all of those things but since we are only responding to rumors and fantasy and talk, they're all just as on the table as not.

[allentown]

Now, I can't speak to why Duquette would take this position

The obvious answer is that he knows that Machado's answer to all comers will be 'no extension' and he prefers that teams hold out a ray of hope and offer more as a result. Even a glimmer of hope for an extension is better than hearing an absolute no from Machado, especially said in a way which indicates he is holding out for more in the off-season than is generally expected.

[zambonir]

And also if teams are absolutely sure there's no chance of an extension they still have to raise their bid, if they want him right now. For what teams might be willing to give up for just one year they also might give up in July.

[julio]

And also if teams are absolutely sure there's no chance of an extension they still have to raise their bid, if they want him right now. For what teams might be willing to give up for just one year they also might give up in July.

Which of course doesn't really apply to the Phillies, because there's just no point in bringing Machado in for a single season, unless you can do it at essentially no cost in prospects/future value.

[andyb]

I think the desire of Machado to move back to SS is as much of a barrier as an extension. There is incentive for Machado to want to sign an extension now. He can put $400 million in the bank and not worry about blowing out a knee or some other injury this year. I just don't know if he is a kid who would be happy with $40 million (what he has made so far plus his likely arbitration award this year) if everything fell apart. If he is, then waiting makes complete sense for him since he'll have one more year of info about where teams are and he might have been able to prove he can play SS in the mean time (which could raise his price even more if he is successful).

[zambonir]

It depends how much the Phillies value the opportunity to have him in the fold. They could go all in to get him now and hope he liked it enough to sign an extension by July (giving them the option to trade him if not). Or in the off-season.

I doubt that is worth the difference between, say, a Top 10 prospect and a Top 30 prospect, but it's not nothing. As I think I mentioned before the Flyers once traded a first-round draft pick to get a 10-day negotiating window with two free agents, so they could lock them up before any other teams could bid.

[LoneStarPhan]

Reportedly, the O's have received ten legitimate offers for Machado. Looks like a deal will happen in the coming weeks.

Latest On Manny Machado

[Dirk41]

Who do the Yankees have in their system that is better than what the Sox would give up to get him? Are they looking to get someone more Major League ready?? Doesn't make sense to flip him for lesser prospects than you give to get him.

[Lawman]

NYY may figure they can trade lesser prospects to get him on a 1 year deal, and if he walks in FA no big deal. They can go all-in on offense since the starting pitching market - an area they need to address - isn't that stocked. And, if Archer or Cole become available they'll have top-tier prospects left to trade.

[Austinfan]

Here's the reality, if the Yankees want Machado, they'll land him because other than a LA team, who can match what NYC has to offer to a young man with $400 million dollars burning in his pocket? Unless you're Trout and would rather go hunting with your buddy Wentz and hang out in your suite/50 yard 1st row/whatever at the Linc.

Harper, is he actually planning to leave the Nats or is he just looking for leverage in negotiations?

So I just don't get excited over the really big names, b/c Philly just isn't an exciting destination, and money can't swing these big deals, because the players are getting more money than even Lenny Dykstra could blow through.

Sure Machado and Harper are the kind of players Klentak would love to land in FA, but don't hold your breathe.

My approach if I were Klentak, is let the media throw my name around for the next year (the way Boras associated the Phillies with Arrieta) as a smokescreen, and focus on the next tier of FAs who might be available while a handful of teams bid up the price of the two superstars.

Meanwhile, take care of 2018 first, because there are sure to be surprises, and those surprises could shift your strategy in winter 2018.
The key to this team's future isn't going to be a longshot FA signing, but continuing to deepen the talent pool, filling out the ML roster, and providing ammunition for a couple key deals in a year or two.

Hopefully, the organizational changes that Klentak has made will improve the draft, the LA signings and player development.
That's the real story, the steps that hopefully will move this organization from 1970 to 2020 in a few years.

[zambonir]

Here's the reality, if the Yankees want Machado, they'll land him because other than a LA team, who can match what NYC has to offer to a young man with $400 million dollars burning in his pocket?

Machado is married. He's from Miami and is very close to his parents. Any good team with money and the chance to win has a shot, and in fact a West Coast/Arizona spring training team might have no shot at all.

Do you not actually remember the last 10 years? The Nats have signed a ton of FAs. Before that the Phillies did. And so have the Cubs, Chicago is boring if you want NY/LA glamor. So is Boston really. It doesn't matter. Every player is different.