2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[saycheese]

I think he does think outside of the box, Kapler is a great example but my complaints with Klentak is about what he has spent the money on. If they would have taken the dollars they spend on Morton, Hellickson, Buckholtz, Saunders and Kendrick and invested more in the minor league and internal players, or maybe more into one cornerstone type player I think that may have been a better play. For the 100 million we spent the prospects and little on the field value we got from those players seem to be extremely expensive. I do think he can safely accelerate the timeline for this team if he makes the right move this offseason. The action is starting to heat up, It is going to be interesting to see how he does.

[Patchmk88]

Was really hoping we would sign Chatwood.

[andyb]

At this point this is all guesswork but it would make sense the Phillies would be interested.

Since I am only like 10% certain we could get Machado on an open market, I would be completely interested in trading for him as long as he signed a long term deal. So for Machado to sign a 12 year/$400 million deal (with an opt out in 3 or 4 years) what would we have to give up? Sixto, Franco, Haseley to start with I would think or some package equivalent to that. Plus a lower level prospect or two.

[Austinfan]

I would think off last year's finish we're close to a .500 team right now.
Did we lose anyone?
Are we adding more young players?
Can we expect more of our young players to improve than fall off the cliff?

And that is before any moves Klentak makes this winter.

[bigegypt0417]

At this point this is all guesswork but it would make sense the Phillies would be interested.

Since I am only like 10% certain we could get Machado on an open market, I would be completely interested in trading for him as long as he signed a long term deal. So for Machado to sign a 12 year/$400 million deal (with an opt out in 3 or 4 years) what would we have to give up? Sixto, Franco, Haseley to start with I would think or some package equivalent to that. Plus a lower level prospect or two.

There are few teams with the money the Phillies have available...I'd be more than 10% certain he would come here. I would say there are only a handful of teams and we'd be one of those.

[andyb]

I'd be more than 10% certain he would come here. I would say there are only a handful of teams and we'd be one of those

I just have doubts we can get a top free agent until we actually do so. Yankees can also more than match our money.

Main point is that this deal does not make sense as a 1-year deal. It has to come with a long term contract even if that contract is overpriced and has multiple opt outs.

[bigegypt0417]

I'd be more than 10% certain he would come here. I would say there are only a handful of teams and we'd be one of those

I just have doubts we can get a top free agent until we actually do so. Yankees can also more than match our money.

Main point is that this deal does not make sense as a 1-year deal. It has to come with a long term contract even if that contract is overpriced and has multiple opt outs.

We have virtually no money tied to future deals...the Yankees have no longer shown an appetite to go in to the luxury tax. I think one thing that would be to our advantage is coming here would make him the "man"

Seems like with the Yankees he's playing second fiddle to the Judge.

[zambonir]

They have got to be banking on some kind of relationship with Machado from their Orioles days, while also paying the most money.

I think it's a non-issue for now, supposedly Angelos absolutely doesn't want to trade him and the GM and manager also have no reason to want to rebuild. Those things could change at the deadline. But I don't know that I see him agreeing to an extension in either case. I guess if they really did just offer the $400 million he'd have to listen!

[flyers19rw]

Sixto, Franco, Haseley to start with I would think or some package equivalent to that. Plus a lower level prospect or two.

To me, that's too much to give. I like Machado but not so much that I'd pass on signing Moustakas instead. What would have more value-Machado and his contract or Moustakas, along with his contract, and keeping all of the prospects that the Phillies would have to move in order to obtain Machado?

[andyb]

What would have more value-Machado and his contract or Moustakas, along with his contract

I would say Machado. Moustakas is still going to get a mid-level contract and I think he is a guy that could fall off a cliff performance-wise this year. His defense turned negative last year and while that might be a bit of an aberration, it could also be a sign that he becomes average at best on defense. On offense he is clearly good but I think we are seeing his age 26-28 peak. He was sub-Franco for the most part before that. So if his defense is merely average it is actually unclear to me that Moustakas will be much better than Franco in a couple of years.

Machado IS clearly better. Star players are even more valuable because of their scarcity. If the Phillies added Machado they could be competing in 2018 if they did not have to deal current major league pieces. The prospect price sounds a lot, but there is no way the Phillies make any deal like this without dealing at least one of their top couple of prospects (and Sixto is more risky than Crawford and others at this point). We can also deal one of Moniak or Haseley pretty easily. So that is a deal that really does not kill us and we can afford the contract.

[zambonir]

Well yeah the most intriguing thing about adding Machado now would be winning now. You immediately upgrade your weakest offensive spot. Would still be a lot of question marks but if you got him, you would indeed want to sign one of the top four starting pitcher free agents now, and probably a higher-end reliever too.

But getting him for only the money - which you'd have to pay anyway - is better.

Frazier is probably more interesting to me than Moustakas if they wanted to be that aggressive about abandoning Franco, 'cause he could always be traded or eased into a bench role (he's also willing to play 1B) in 2019 and 2020, and you can probably get him for just three years. Moustakas in 2020 might not be pretty, as andy notes, and he'd be signed through 2022. I doubt they want that.

[Squire]

I'd offer Franco, Moniak, Rupp and Thompson for Machado

[Patchmk88]

That ain't getting you Machado.

[Squire]

I don't know..if the Orioles become convinced he's gone as a free agent in a year (P.S. he is) and they want to keep him away from the Yankees then they might find religion

[nycphils]

I’d like to keep Sixto, but everyone else is fair game as far as I’m concerned. Franco, Medina, choice of Eflin/Lively/Pivetta, choice of Quinn/Moniak and choice of Kilome/Seranthony/Brito/Gamboa/Suarez - I’d do that. Depth is great for deals like this.

Medina/Moniak/Kilome would be three BA Top 10 prospects, BTW.

[zambonir]

Franco is a throw-in at best but sure.

Are we talking about deals you'd make for Machado with an extension, or without?

The other subplot here is Machado's desire to play SS. Some have speculated the Orioles may be looking for a 3B so they can move him this season.

The extent of MacPhail's relationship with Angelos and Showalter could also be a factor (as far as the O's being more interested in working with the Phillies than the Yankees).

[bigegypt0417]

I don't know..if the Orioles become convinced he's gone as a free agent in a year (P.S. he is) and they want to keep him away from the Yankees then they might find religion

There are many teams that would give up more...which is what he's worth.

You need to have at least 2 of the top 5 or 6 prospects in your system.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

The Orioles have a weak minor league system and have no 3B prospect close(though they could move Schoop back to third). They may have a much higher opinion of a 25 year old Franco with years of control left.
Franco, Galvis and a young pitcher not named Nola.
or
Hernandez, Galvis and a young pitcher not named Nola.

.........is all I'd give for one year of Machado.

[bigegypt0417]

The Orioles have a weak minor league system and have no 3B prospect close(though they could move Schoop back to third). They may have a much higher opinion of a 25 year old Franco with years of control left.
Franco, Galvis and a young pitcher not named Nola.
or
Hernandez, Galvis and a young pitcher not named Nola.

.........is all I'd give for one year of Machado.

No one is trading for one year of Machado...

[Squire]

Everybody other than the Yankees or the Phillies would be trading for one year of Machado