1st Series Complete - Instruction manual needed?

[zambonir]

Well, I think we also have to consider that the LF Hoskins replaced was Nick Williams. Not a great outfielder so far (despite ostensibly being able to play all three positions),and we'll see about the hitting. Short-term if Hoskins + Santana puts up more WAR than what Williams + Hoskins would have, they upgraded the team (especially if Williams is still an upgrade as 4th OF). Long-term, who the heck knows what the OF will be next year, or what Santana's role might be by 2020.

[andyb]

Well, I think we also have to consider that the LF Hoskins replaced was Nick Williams.

But not really. That is not how you evaluate the move since you spent $60 million on Santana. Hoskins would be a perfectly fine 1B. If Hoskins is a 3 WAR player in LF rather than a 4 WAR player at 1B, the proper comparison is what you might get if you spent $20 million on a real outfielder like Lorenzo Cain.

Even if you evaluate against Williams, Williams clearly has the tools to be a decent OF. He will likely improve with experience. Without defensive tools there are just limits to how good Hoskins can be out there.

Ignoring that moving Hoskins to LF costs you some defense is just ignoring reality. Playing Kingery at SS will also likely cost us defense.

[zambonir]

Well, it's not like the front office hasn't thought of this stuff. They've either got defensive metrics that don't agree or they've crunched the numbers and believe the upside is worth it. Doesn't meant they are right. It's certainly true they could have just signed an OF instead of Santana. Or a 3B.

[LoneStarPhan]

I have to say that I was very surprised when they moved early to sign a first baseman.

I hope it works out.

[zambonir]

Still some good post-mortems being written.

This story notes just how unusually ineffective Nola has been the third time through, while also being unusually effective the second time through. Which makes the optics hard to process.

Kapler's conundrum: How to handle Aaron Nola and the times...

(Since that was written of course, he let Lively hang around. I can't imagine Nola won't throw 90 pitches today, assuming he's doing well.)

And this is a good read. It is not really a defense of Kapler, more of a meditation. What if his methods ultimately work, but we don't enjoy watching a game where that is true?

What if Gabe Kapler is right?

[LoneStarPhan]

Winning can change many minds about watching a Kapler managed team.

[zambonir]

Winning might be too much to ask - tonight's result might suffice on most nights, if the hitting comes around. No question the four-hour, seven-pitcher game is more fun if you win than if you lose but...

[andyb]

Those articles, especially the Good Fight one are not a serious analysis of what they purport to be Kapler's strategy.

Strategy 1 - Rest regulars more, have positional flexibility

Assumes players play better with more rest. Though we are talking LOTS of rest for players like Franco and some outfielders. So do players play better starting 110 games versus a normal load of 140-150? Versus 135? We do not know that. It also assumes we are always getting better platoon advantages. This is probably less true since many teams are pulling starters after going through the order twice. Heck, we should prepare opposite-handed 2-inning relievers to diminish the other side's platoon advantage.

Also assumes that the lesser defense (Kingery at SS, Hoskins in LF, etc.) is a lower cost than the platoon/rest advantage. This is also largely unproven.

Strategy 2 - Starting pitching twice through the order. Lots of bullpen usage in short outings. Assume you cycle a dozen relievers through your bullpen to prevent overuse with options and 10-day DL moves.

This assumes that more innings from lesser pitchers are better than additional innings from your best pitchers (i.e. your starters) when they are tired. This also assumes that the long term effects of all that bullpen usage will not hurt the pitchers. I know this is why teams train and develop dozens of relievers these days to throw hard in short outings. If they burn themselves out within the 6 controllable lower paid years the teams don't care because they are easily and inexpensively replaced.

The game is evolving. There are probably not great answers to lots of these questions yet. I just would not blindly think that Kapler's strategic assumptions are correct. The whole pitching thing could easily fall apart simply because the lessons Kapler learned with the Dodgers better and deeper staff may not apply here.

Kapler deserves a full, long chance. Hopefully he is appropriately humbled by his first series and knows he has lots to learn before he throws out things that have worked for a long time. Hopefully he can also buy the players into this. So far the results there (like with Herrera on opening day - why embarrass the guy who has been your best player for a couple years? Why?) have been mixed.

[allentown]

I do find it odd that Kapler went longer with Lively than he did with his near-ace Nola: quite a few more pitches, an extra third IP, more hits surrendered, and most especially in terms of runs actually scored against them. Lively pitched very well, Nola p itched extremely well. I really hope Kapler changes his approach to Nola. If not, I doubt Nola will want to re-sign in Philly.

[el-pietro]

Its possible that it is related to what he came out and said and that he was working with the off day in mind. The only thing is there is an off day two days after last nights game and there was an off day two days after the Nola game so that doesn't fully explain it. Maybe he learned that he needs to balance his method with reality a bit. You can't follow the plan to perfection because you don't know whats going to happen tomorrow. The Velasquez game may have burned him somewhat and left his pen more exposed than he had expected so early.

Alternatively, maybe he was really afraid of putting Nola out against Freeman and in an ideal world he would have left Nola out to finish the inning but not against Freeman. I mean if he had been at 68 pitches with two outs and no one on he might have let Nola go up against Freeman, or if it had been the same situation but against any other batter he would have been relatively happy for Nola to continue into the third go around the order.

The approach against Freeman for the rest of the series would appear to back this up to an extent. How many walks did they issue him? They were clearly pitching around him as much as they could.

Maybe its a bit of all of that and a few other things combined. Lets see what he does with Nola in this afternoons game, if anyone can actually watch it.

Edit: Regarding Off days. While there is no game on Friday, the Phillies do have 25 games in 28 days from yesterday to the end of the month, and 27 in 30 days. The off days seem to be really oddly spread at the moment. If the Snow game had been played then the start to the season would look like this
3 Games
4 Games
5 Games
10 Games
9 Games
10 Games
9 Games
10 games
6 games
9 games
10 games
2 games
6 games
3 games
All Star Break

Possibly designed to ease teams into the season, I don't know if other teams have similar schedules - The Mets have played 4, Braves/Nats have played 5 , the Marlins 6 already.
But giving teams streaks of 9 and 10 games and then streaks of 2, 3 and 5 seems odd. I understand travel comes into it but they seem to have ignored that for the Phillies in May when they play in CBP on the 27th and play in LA on the 28th.
Surely there is a smarter way to lay out fixtures to give teams more consistent rest.

[zambonir]

Strategy 1 - Rest regulars more, have positional flexibility

Assumes players play better with more rest. Though we are talking LOTS of rest for players like Franco and some outfielders. So do players play better starting 110 games versus a normal load of 140-150? Versus 135? We do not know that. It also assumes we are always getting better platoon advantages. This is probably less true since many teams are pulling starters after going through the order twice. Heck, we should prepare opposite-handed 2-inning relievers to diminish the other side's platoon advantage.

Also assumes that the lesser defense (Kingery at SS, Hoskins in LF, etc.) is a lower cost than the platoon/rest advantage. This is also largely unproven.

Strategy 2 - Starting pitching twice through the order. Lots of bullpen usage in short outings. Assume you cycle a dozen relievers through your bullpen to prevent overuse with options and 10-day DL moves.

This assumes that more innings from lesser pitchers are better than additional innings from your best pitchers (i.e. your starters) when they are tired. This also assumes that the long term effects of all that bullpen usage will not hurt the pitchers. I know this is why teams train and develop dozens of relievers these days to throw hard in short outings. If they burn themselves out within the 6 controllable lower paid years the teams don't care because they are easily and inexpensively replaced.

The game is evolving. There are probably not great answers to lots of these questions yet. I just would not blindly think that Kapler's strategic assumptions are correct.

I'm not blindly thinking that but I'm assuming we don't know as much as MLB analytics staffs do. The days when fans and bloggers were better informed than front offices are gone. Whatever they are deciding, it is based on more information that we can get online, info that all 30 teams have, and also info that may be proprietary to one team. So when you say we don't know something or something is unproven I have to assume that while we don't, they do. Or there is, at worst, a strong theoretical basis for it.

If they are just trying stuff that they don't know is gonna work to see if it does, well, there may be a long-term benefit to that as well but it's probably not a good way to win games this year, or more reilable than the old way or the "gut" until there's enough data to prove it.

The SSS is not doing Kapler any favors right now, any more than it is the hitters. He's made two moves with high-probability outcomes (Milner and last night's shift) that have delivered the low probability event.

[andyb]

On off days the opening of the season is a bit different because opening day is often scheduled as a 2-day block with an off day to allow for a sellout in bad weather season. The Braves did not do this though the subsequent Sunday off day was because all teams were scheduling 3 games in 4 days. For the Phillies home opener they are doing that so that is why the season start is always a bit different than the rest of the season.

As for after opening day, it sure looks like the new schedule is designed to never go more than 10 days without an off day.

[donaldorc]

After the disasterous opening series in Atlanta, even if they lost two to the Mets, it seems that Kapler learned his lesson. His over-managing has turned to normal managing, including the home opener today.

[Austinfan]

I think it's a matter of feel, which takes time.
Most pitchers do struggle the 3rd time through lineups, but that's going to vary game to game.

The proper balance is probably to let your pitcher go a 3rd time if he's pitching well that day (but not if he's struggling) but pull him at the first sign of trouble rather than let the game get out of hand.

There will be days when a pitcher "guts" through a lineup twice when one of his secondary pitches isn't working, but without that pitch is dog meat if he goes through a 3rd time, other days when everything is working he can mix it up enough to keep a team off-balance.

And a pitcher like Pivetta, who looks like he's going to be a horse like Halladay, should be able to get through most lineups the third time around if he develops his secondary pitches b/c he has no falloff with his FB velocity.

[allentown]

Nola had a lot of successful 6- and 7-inning starts last season, which is why I thought it so strange for him to be pulled when he was.