1st Series Complete - Instruction manual needed?

[Austinfan]

Much ado about nothing.

First start of the season, with a decimated pitching staff, 5-0 lead, so he babies Nola, knowing he may ride him the rest of the month until Arrieta and Hunter return. If your bullpen can't hold a 5-0 lead for 3 2/3 innings, you have bigger problems.

Same way moving players around may seem funny in April, but key in August when injuries mount up and Kingery is comfortable where ever you stick him b/c he has a few games under his belt.

I think Kapler is right not wanting to stick with 8 starters and limit his bench players to 150 PA, when he has talented backups who deserve a chance to show they should start - get rid of any sense of entitlement - and if it makes players insecure, well, if you're not mentally tough we can find you a new address.

[fish]

It's going to be tough for Kapler to regain credibility, but I keep telling myself that Jeff Luhnow spent a year bumbling the Astros as GM before getting on track.

[saycheese]

I think the comparisons to Kelly are more about the fact that he is going about things much differently than has been the norm in baseball. Sports science is one thing (From Coconut oil on), using Analytics I am all for that, but you if can't perform the most basic parts of the game you won't succeed. A pitcher no matter what needs to throw some pitches in the bullpen to get his arm ready. You can't make that move. As a little league manager, I never did that. His use of the bullpen is questionable but its surely not the first time a manager has been questioned for that. The issue I have is more the trying to play guys out of position. Playing Kingery at 3rd or SS, I get his bat in the lineup but playing defense is important. Kingery is a 2nd baseman, not a utility infielder. I fear he is going to stunt some of these players development. I would much rather have Hoskins playing 1st base a position he is comfortable with and honing his hitting skill, then spending his time trying to figure out left field. (I know the Santana signing was Klentaks decision but...) I would much rather the same for Kingery etc. I think this team is going to step back this year (I know its hard to step back from where they are) because from top to bottom I don't think they are being managed correctly. I hope by mid season I am completely wrong on this but I fear I am not.

[zambonir]

I really disagree about the utility thing. Ben Zobrist played 6 seasons where he put up between 5 and 8 WAR. And Kingery might be that talented. In the end, he will probably end up being the 2B, but even that is not certain, if he turns out to be a CF or a 3B instead, well, it worked for Herrera and Justin Turner (though Turner was a SS). If your players are good enough (on both offense and defense) it's not going to matter. I'm more concerned that guys like Franco and Herrera are going to be unhappy about playing less. If that's the case the GM needs to address his roster, that's not on Kapler.

So long as they have one extra OF and one extra IF you can't say this season is only about winning. They are still developing and auditioning. The versatility thing may be a philosophy to some extent, but it's also out of necessity. If they sign Machado and/or trade Hernandez I'm sure they'll be back to four traditional IF starters next year. But maybe not. In the end, if you get more runs and more outs from having five good IFs who move around instead of four good IFs and a Florimon, why not? It remains to be seen if that's the case but it has worked for other teams, so a common-sense argument that it's better to only play one position isn't necessarily true.

Everything else so far, of course, is bad.

[Austinfan]

My only question with Kingery is his arm, and so far he hasn't looked deficient at 3B or SS.
He was an OF before he was moved to 2B and should have no problem playing any OF spot.

Even if they trade Hernandez, they have a bunch of 2B prospects in the system who'd be blocked by Kingery - but if Kingery can move around, it would be easier to fit them onto the ML roster when ready.

Hoskins is a better athlete than advertised, while he may need time to adjust to LF, he's not the Bull out there.

If Franco and Herrera are unhappy, tell them to hit better, Franco has a lot to prove and bad Herrera (the wild swinger) isn't that good of a hitter.

[andyb]

Hoskins is a better athlete than advertised, while he may need time to adjust to LF, he's not the Bull out there

Not sure anyone is "advertising" he is a bad athlete. We have a small sample size of defensive stats on him in the OF and they were below average. And we know he has below average speed. There really is not much evidence that he is much better than the Bull.

There was always a defensive price to move Hoskins to the OF. The offense might justify it. One cannot ignore it however and make it go away.

With Kingery he can probably handle the other positions. It does not mean he would be above average at them however. The lack of specialization also might mean he gets less good at 2B, his regular position. We don't really know this until we see it over time. Pretending these costs don't exist however is being willfully blind. There is a pretty good case that they should trade Hernandez because they are not getting the most out of their roster simply because of "flexibility". Kingery might be better just at 2B, and Hernandez might get us something valuable in return.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I think the comparisons to Kelly are more about the fact that he is going about things much differently than has been the norm in baseball.

I agree with this statement - I think the Kelly-Kapler comparisons are on target primarily because of their contrarian approach. Chip Kelly always seemed to suffer from "I'm the smartest guy in the room" syndrome and my initial impression of Gabe Kapler is that he has a tendency towards this persona as well. Kelly never worked well with the Philly press; Kapler better not follow suit or he is doomed in Philadelphia. I have been following the Phillies and Eagles from out of town since I relocated from Pennsylvania to the Washington DC area over 40 years ago. Kapler is being questioned/criticized by the national press right now - I can't imagine what his reception is going to be back in Philadelphia if the events that occurred in Atlanta continue to occur as the season rolls on.

[zambonir]

I just really don't get that vibe off of Kapler. Yeah, he had a bad weekend, including the way he stuck to his talking points. But compared to Kelly he is loose, humble, even a bit of a kiss-ass. The old-media guys obviously preferred Mackanin but I think most of the kids covering the team already prefer Klentak (he's their age, he's into analytics like they are) and Kapler will be fine. So long as he does learn from this. He's already in (I think, perfectly sincere) damage control mode in the interview below.

It seems like the biggest thing is going to be that he has to manage the team he has, not the team he wishes he has or the team with no injuries. If your offense can't get you a lead or your 6th inning relievers can't get you outs, the 5-inning approach won't work as well.

Gabe Kapler devising bullpen-usage plans

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Hoskins is a better athlete than advertised, while he may need time to adjust to LF, he's not the Bull out there

Not sure anyone is "advertising" he is a bad athlete. We have a small sample size of defensive stats on him in the OF and they were below average. And we know he has below average speed. There really is not much evidence that he is much better than the Bull.

There was always a defensive price to move Hoskins to the OF. The offense might justify it. One cannot ignore it however and make it go away.

With Kingery he can probably handle the other positions. It does not mean he would be above average at them however. The lack of specialization also might mean he gets less good at 2B, his regular position. We don't really know this until we see it over time. Pretending these costs don't exist however is being willfully blind. There is a pretty good case that they should trade Hernandez because they are not getting the most out of their roster simply because of "flexibility". Kingery might be better just at 2B, and Hernandez might get us something valuable in return.

While I'm certain no one said he's a "bad athlete", that all scouting reports had him locked in at 1B(with below average speed) suggests it.

[andyb]

While I'm certain no one said he's a "bad athlete", that all scouting reports had him locked in at 1B(with below average speed) suggests it.

But is there evidence that he is any good in the OF? Maybe he ends up as simply below average out there, but it is pretty clear he will never be that good. AF was blithely dismissing this fact and ignoring the defensive cost of putting Hoskins in the OF. And the defensive cost of flexibility when guys like Kingery play out of position.

There is a cost to these moves. There is a benefit offensively theoretically. It is unclear whether the defensive cost is worth it yet.

[Austinfan]

If he's a bad athlete, Hoskins is never going to be adequate in LF, hence the Bull reference.
But if he's an average to above average athlete, Hoskins can learn to play LF, it's not that tough of a position to learn.

Williams is a very good athlete, but I question both his instincts at the plate and in the field.
So it's not like Hoskins is replacing a gold glove OF.

The other side is that Hoskins wasn't that good of a defensive 1B, and 1B is harder to master than LF, more technique, more quick twitch plays. That's why most 1B are good bat/poor field guys, because most are put there because they lack enough speed for LF, not because they have 1B fielding skills.

[andyb]

But if he's an average to above average athlete, Hoskins can learn to play LF, it's not that tough of a position to learn.

In terms of the tools needed to play LF though he is not above average. He is below average in speed. His arm is nothing special. We also have limited evidence in terms of last year's defensive stats that he is below average out there. Everything else is just spinning reality. He is below average out there. There is a cost to putting him out there. It is unclear whether the offense justifies the cost yet.

[flyers19rw]

With Kingery he can probably handle the other positions. It does not mean he would be above average at them however. The lack of specialization also might mean he gets less good at 2B, his regular position. We don't really know this until we see it over time. Pretending these costs don't exist however is being willfully blind.

And its not just Kingery. There are several young Phillies who, theoretically, can "play" multiple positions. The question is which one is their optimum one? How much production, both in the field and at the plate, do you lose when they are played out of their primary position? Hoskins can "play" LF but by doing so, how does it affect his hitting? How much defense is lost by playing him in that position versus having a more proficient defender in that place? Therefore is it worth using him in LF? The same could be said with using Crawford, Hernandez or Kingery at positions other than SS, 2B and 2B respectively. Herrera is an OF, should he be used in CF or one of the corner positions for optimum usage and so forth.
Lost in this with the theme of the interchangeability of the Dodgers, seen as the masters of position movement last season, was that it has hurt the development of some players. Joc Pederson was (mis)used so much that he has has fallen from ROY performance to being a minor leaguer again and perhaps a lost cause in their system. One has to keep in mind that the Dodgers were protecting holes in their lineup last season both at 1B, 2B and in the OF due to injury with all of their moving players off of their primary spots. They were not deliberately pursuing a lineup of musical chairs.

[tom81]

Hoskins has put up a .4 WAR in the three games so far. I think he is more than making up for any defensive weaknesses. It surely doesn’t have looked to bother his hitting in the SSS of this year and last.

[andyb]

Hoskins has put up a .4 WAR in the three games so far. I think he is more than making up for any defensive weaknesses. It surely doesn’t have looked to bother his hitting in the SSS of this year and last.

Nobody is saying he is not good offensively. To know how valuable he is we will need a larger sample size of course.

The real question though is whether the addition of a 1B (Santana) is better for the team given the drop in defensive value from Hoskins compared to maybe signing an OF like Lorenzo Cain for instance (1360 OPS in 4 games!!!!!!).

Maybe the moves they did will work out. We just don't know how well at the moment though and dismissing the defensive cost is not how one evaluates these moves.

[tom81]

The only way to evaluate this move now is with the limited data that is available now. The rest is conjecture, both mine and anyone else’s.

[bkeich]

The real question though is whether the addition of a 1B (Santana) is better for the team given the drop in defensive value from Hoskins compared to maybe signing an OF like Lorenzo Cain for instance (1360 OPS in 4 games!!!!!!).

So, it is almost impossible to judge defensive 1B in my opinion with the stats that are our there right now. The best I could come up with is that Cleveland had the best contribution of fielding runs saved from a 1B of any team last year (Santana was their 1B almost the entire time). That added up to 0.0 dWAR (Santana's Baseball Reference Info.

Santana is not just a good 1B, he is a very good one, so that has to be included in the discussion of how we judge the signing of him vs. an OF. Additionally, by signing Santana we also have a built in 1B backup in Hoskins, who is young enough to play LF at this point. Keep in mind, we are talking about LF, the 2nd least important defensive position (excluding pitcher). Add in the fact hat Santana is an OBP machine, he can serve as a 3rd catcher (maybe even a backup for a few days if someone gets hurt) and he is EXACTLY how we want players to approach an at bat (a guy who is patient and smart). Honestly, Santana is the guy I want these guys to learn from, who knows, maybe even Franco will notice that this guy has less talent than him but knows how to approach an AB and how to work a count and not try and hit the ball 800 feet.

[tom81]

With the rainout and the off day the bullpen should be fully rested.

[Austinfan]

I think Santana being a Latino veteran played into the consideration when signing him, with Franco, Herrera, Alfaro and a lot of LA prospects coming up the ladder, he can fill a leadership role that's harder for an Anglo player to fill. It's not just the language barrier, these kids have a different life experience than most Americans.

You want a certain balance and chemistry in the clubhouse as well as on the field.

[andyb]

None of that changes the fact that Hoskins is not great in the outfield though. I love Santana like the rest of the board does. I just acknowledge that there is a defensive hit we are taking with Hoskins in the outfield. There are reasons they did it. It is just not clear now whether it was worth it or not.