The numbers don't lie

zambonir 2024-10-10 18:10:20 UTC #21

Cherry-pick implies randomness. I realize monthly samples are still small samples but they still tell something of a story just the same as a team's monthly record. I also believe Bohm's OPS since June 1 for the entire rest of the season around .730 - but that's overly depressed by September even more than August.

The thing is Bohm is super-reliant on BABIP good luck, IMO, not an unfortunate victim of BABIP bad luck. Overall this year, it was .305, and last year it was .296. That is a normal range, but that's also why I think he's ultimately just a 105 OPS+ player, not the 120-130 guy he was in April that played such a huge role in his great season and the team's early success while his BABIP was high.

andyb 2024-10-10 18:45:38 UTC #22

Bohm had a 769 OPS for June through August. Not 730. We know he was not the same after the injury so including the post injury stats makes your point kind of meaningless. I know you caveat on September, but he really was never the same player after the injury.

Bohm had cold and hot streaks like any player. I also never thought his defense was as good as the announcers and some of the stats implied. He is an average player. A little above average offensively and below defensively. He is still cheap for at least one more year. I am fine if they keep him and would be fine if they traded him for something worthwhile. Clearly we don't have lots of obvious trade pieces if you eliminate the high salaried players like Casty.

phillychuck 2024-10-10 21:05:44 UTC #23

In terms of being a game of breaks, what would the result of the series have been if Hoffman had pitched two shutout innings instead of getting blown up? That is, to me, part of "the breaks of the game." I suspect he was hurting and kept it to himself. If he's his normal self, they win the series...if the three balls they hit over 100mph into outs in the same inning are extra-base hits hits, they win that game. If a couple of ground balls bleed through the holes, they may win a game they lost. If Bohm was not recovering from injury and was hitting like he did in May, they win. (and Realmuto also) They are a pretty good team, they lost to a pretty good team, and they didn't get the breaks they needed, both on-field luck and injury/rehab/peak performance luck.

Too bad, let's go get 'em next year.

Philsmania 2024-10-10 21:21:42 UTC #24

phillychuck:

In terms of being a game of breaks, what would the result of the series have been if Hoffman had pitched two shutout innings instead of getting blown up? That is, to me, part of "the breaks of the game." I suspect he was hurting and kept it to himself. If he's his normal self, they win the series...if the three balls they hit over 100mph into outs in the same inning are extra-base hits hits, they win that game. If a couple of ground balls bleed through the holes, they may win a game they lost. If Bohm was not recovering from injury and was hitting like he did in May, they win. (and Realmuto also) They are a pretty good team, they lost to a pretty good team, and they didn't get the breaks they needed, both on-field luck and injury/rehab/peak performance luck.

Too bad, let's go get 'em next year.

Your speculation about Hoffman reminds me of the situation with Madson after 2011. The Phillies were talking extension with him when he was a FA but when things stalled, they pivoted to and signed Papelbon. Madson signed with the Reds but pulled up lame in ST and didn't pitch for the next two seasons and was out of baseball in 2014 before making a comeback in 2015.

andyb 2024-10-10 21:24:19 UTC #25

I do admit I am a bit less certain about Hoffman though. Very possibly recency bias but I always assumed they could bring Hoffman back for a bit of a discount and they would probably let Estevez go because of the price. Now do we really feel good about either of them? Strahm is not a closer, but his price is reasonable even if he regresses a bit. I just always hoped we could get Hoffman for $10-$12 million a year and then make a trade for another midlevel arm.

Squire 2024-10-10 21:29:03 UTC #26

Just a general comment that I'm simply not sure that you can construct a lineup that you are certain (or more certain) won't just apple up in a 3, 5 or 7 game playoff series. I think you can construct a team that gets to the playoffs over 162 games but I'm legit not sure that there is a way to knowingly construct a team that doesn't go ice cold over (now) five out of the last 6 playoff games.

phillychuck 2024-10-10 21:32:04 UTC #27

Absolutely agree with Squire. Way too much SSS effect in the playoffs, that's why they play 150-plus games; it takes that long to sort things out.

Austinfan 2024-10-10 22:30:48 UTC #28

Here's where a disciplined lineup makes a difference.

You're gong to run into pitchers who you struggle to hit, but some deep counts and walks can get them out of the game by the 5th or 6th, rather than letting them cruise through the 7th and leaving only their two best RPs to finish the game.

14 pitches an inning, 98 after 7.
16 pitches an inning, 96 after 6.

Just making him throw 2 more pitches an inning gets you a shot at the 7th inning RP.

andyb 2024-10-10 22:39:32 UTC #29

You can post about plate discipline 37 billion times and the main point is we just did not hit the last 4 games. It is a small sample. We got an above average number of walks as a team and had an above average on base percentage. There are many ways to win. Lack of discipline for some players may be part of it, but we just did not hit and had some bad luck.

Sabin 2024-10-10 22:55:15 UTC #30

This was amusing to read. I seem to recall you arguing against my using monthly stats for the very purpose of trying to tell a story in the past.

Sometimes it seems like you just want to be contrarian (to the point of openly contradicting yourself within a post). There's a place for that, of course - the exchange of viewpoints is why we're here - but over a certain degree or frequency from a single source and it can take the air out of the room.

schillingfan 2024-10-13 00:37:53 UTC #31

phillychuck:

In terms of being a game of breaks, what would the result of the series have been if Hoffman had pitched two shutout innings instead of getting blown up? That is, to me, part of "the breaks of the game." I suspect he was hurting and kept it to himself. If he's his normal self, they win the series...if the three balls they hit over 100mph into outs in the same inning are extra-base hits hits, they win that game. If a couple of ground balls bleed through the holes, they may win a game they lost. If Bohm was not recovering from injury and was hitting like he did in May, they win. (and Realmuto also) They are a pretty good team, they lost to a pretty good team, and they didn't get the breaks they needed, both on-field luck and injury/rehab/peak performance luck.

Too bad, let's go get 'em next year.

This is exactly my attitude. Things broke against us. No need to blame anyone. I was in Philly listening to people say crazy things.

Florida_Sunshine 2024-10-13 04:03:07 UTC #32

Those are my exact same feelings. This was a pretty good team. Was picked by many to win the WS.

Every team has flaws. No team is perfect. Our bullpen and hitters left us at the wrong time.

I look forward to next year. And it will be against an improved NL East. I suspect it will be a dogfight between us, the Mets and the Braves.

allentown 2024-10-13 14:36:15 UTC #33

DD doesn't have a plan. Just as DD is likely responsible for our WS appearance, he is also responsible for the hole the team is looking at in the not-too-distant future. We understood, from the moment DD signed both Schwarber and Castellanos to long-term deals, as well as the team signing Harper to a very long deal, that this was a poorly constructed, inflexible team which was looking at a lot of future dead money. We've now spent $80 million on the wholly redundant Castellanos signing and in three years that signing has gotten us only a total of 2.4 rWAR and extreme streakiness.

The Turner deal is far too long. More dead money, more mortgaged future. Another poster on a different thread noted that Turner is likely the third-best defensive SS on the team, but that he is a star and likes to play SS to he will be our SS for several more seasons. This encapsulates the problem with the current Phillies. They are too much a collection of stars, who are used to being catered to by their manager, than they are a team, whose first goal is winning. Turner had a solid 3 WAR season, so I'm not pointing the finger solely at him. Harper's push for a contract extension was inexcusable in my mind, given how many dead years we are already obligated to. So is Castellanos starting every game during a half-season slump, with the manager catering to his desire.

What the Phillies lack is a supporting cast of good, flexible and willing to make adjustments to their game to help the team, supporting cast surrounding their stars. They need to become more of a team. The non-team approach seems to begin with ownership and management.

Jazzhead 2024-10-13 14:37:24 UTC #34

That's a good point, but we shouldn't forget that the strength of this team is starting pitching, which was excellent against the Mets. Hopefully by midseason Painter will be able to contribute.

Estevez was supposed to be the RP with the "closer's mentality". The grand slam he gave up won't be forgotten, but should we fail to resign him because of that?

I think that Marsh should stick as our fourth outfielder (or as a platoon with Rojas in center), and a priority should be the signing of a corner outfielder on no more than a two-year deal. In a perfect world, Hays would step up.