The New New Unending Flyers thread

[zambonir]

4-0-1 since the game before the break when Kuzmenko arrived. Even the blown lead was still a point.

[Austinfan]

The last two seasons, when the Flyers get average or above goaltending, they play at a PO level.
They are a top ten team 5x5 according to advanced metrics, top 2 since the Cates line was put together 11/25.

Does that mean they've arrived? No.
1) PP needs to improve to at least average, right now it's the worst in the NHL
2) need a couple more top 6/top 4 players, at this point quality needed more than quantity
3) need to fix the center issue.
4) need to find out if Ersson/Fedotov are improving, or just flashing.

Kuz is interesting, really skilled offensively, an adventure on defense, Torts will push him to be better, do they extend him (he'll be 30 next year) as a stopgap while their draft picks grow up? Could help stabilize the PP

Pelletier hasn't shown enough to separate him from Lycksell, Abols, Richard et al. Do they extend a RFA offer?
Barkey goes pro next year, Bump?

Briere seems to be in no rush, good. Still 2-3 years away, biggest mistake most teams make is cut a rebuild off too soon b/c of ownership pressure (got to win to fill seats). Nobody has to be moved, and they don't need middle round or later picks just to dump veterans.

[zambonir]

(got to win to fill seats)

Flyers tickets, while not hard to come by, have basically retained their value. Whereas $3 will get you into the Sixers game tomorrow.

The core Flyers fan base being so loyal has always been part of the problem really. It ceased to be a tough ticket; the games stopped being always sold out, and I'm sure the group and season accounts declined, but not in the same way you see with the Phillies or Sixers when they're in the trough. They never got desperate until this time around.

It will be interesting... I don't think the FO will be impatient or mortgage the future. If they could find a way to get a younger or at least decent and controllable player at this deadline they'd probably do it but actually being able to pull that off (in terms of a center or true Top 6) still tricky.

[Austinfan]

While this draft may not be that strong, it's depth is in two areas, centers and goalies.
Right now Flyers picking #8, #20, #25, #39, #40, #47, #51, #72
That's going to provide Briere a lot of options to fill out the pipeline.

Since these players will be 2-3 years away, he might go for short-term fixes like extending Kuz and/or adding a veteran over-30 center on 3 year deal. The same way Risto is a placeholder for Bonk, Seeler for Andrae/McDonald, etc

[VoteForKalas]

I think the issue though is we need top level elite talent more than depth. I hope he packages some of those to move up aggressively and get at least one elite talent.

[zambonir]

You can draft well at 8 and 20 though, just like you can draft poorly at 3 or 12. One positive, while Flahr is a holdover from the Fletcher regime, he has drafted pretty well (the Gauthier situation and this past draft's choice aside).

I would still rather see this season end with more chances at the lottery than just missing the playoffs again. But I think they'd rather package a couple of those picks - and probably a player or two - for a known quantity (the elusive controllable young center) than an unsure three-years-away #12 pick in this draft.

[Austinfan]

Problem is always the factors you can't control, who is available and at what cost.

Best thing you can do is accumulate assets, be patient, and wait until opportunity knocks.

[bigegypt0417]

I don't see anyone advocating for rushing to use assets carelessly.

The flyer have done a very good job of accumulating draft picks...i would imagine at some point they would use some of those to acquire a young, talented player or two.

[zambonir]

Also the assets are still assets whether they are picks or players you picked with them.

For sure I'd rather have one Top 5 pick than 8 and 20 (or even better, 8 and 25) but those picks are rarely traded.

There's probably a better argument for turning that 25 into a couple of more second or high-third round picks, and/or floating it to next year. But one way or another I agree a couple of this year's picks will end up being traded for a player, whether it's before the draft or in the long run.

[bigegypt0417]

For sure I'd rather have one Top 5 pick than 8 and 20 (or even better, 8 and 25) but those picks are rarely traded.

Even with a little bit better play as of late, they are in the 8th spot and 6 points from 5th.

and now 7 picks in the first 51...

[Docs]

There's probably a better argument for turning that 25 into a couple of more second or high-third round picks,

I strongly disagree. First round picks have much better upside. Historically third round picks don't make the NHL, and if they do, their upside is 4th line. There are maybe 40 quality prospects in a deep draft, you do not want to trade out of the top 40 unless you are getting more top 40 picks.

[zambonir]

These are both a little old, but originally developed by the current Hurricanes GM (including for Broad Street Hockey though that link is dead).

Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey

Near the top of the draft, the trade value of a pick has exceeded the projected GSVA of the players actually selected. The gap is most significant at the first overall pick and steadily decreases until the values converge at approximately the 35th pick. In other words, the data suggests that a team is likely to produce surplus player value if it trades down out of the first round–even if it makes just an “average” trade as indicated by the market.

This dynamic flips thereafter. Particularly in the second and third rounds, the trade market apparently undervalues these draft picks, at least as indicated by drafted player GSVA.

Which pick is most undervalued by the market? The 64th overall. In this range–the late second round and into the third round–a team may be able to generate surplus value even by making just a “fair” trade moving up.

https://theleafsnation.com/news/is-it-worth-it-to-trade-up-in-the-nhl-draft

the value of a late first-round
pick from a contending team is actually closer in value to any
third-round selection than it is to a top-five pick. Thinking of this
from a glass-half-full perspective for a team trying to rebuild, this
suggests that adding multiple second- or third-round selections is
likely an easier way to improve the roster of a team than holding out
for that tough-to-obtain first-round choice when the market is far more
thin.

[Docs]

Sorry but I disagree with this analysis. Look at hockey encyclopedia and look how many games played players have per round. Third round is a long shot to have an NHL career. Sure there might be less of a difference, but late first round picks still play in the NHL while third Rounders are more likely to be AHL players. There is a difference between the upside, because top five picks are likely first pair defenders or top line all star forwards, while late firsts are second or third line forwards or second pair defenders. Its about building an NHL roster, not winning an AHL championship.

[zambonir]

Well, I'm more interested in statistical analysis by a current NHL GM than just pointing at the list of players in the hockey encyclopedia, especially as the influx of European and college players has changed things in recent decades. I just don't think it's at all clear-cut either way.

Of course if we're just going by anecdote, just for the Flyers alone we could point to any number of 20something picks who turned out be good choices. But also second and third-rounders who did. Even in the recent years you have Bonk, Foerster and Frost in the first group and Bjarnason, Barkey, Kolosov and Andrae in the second group. Jury is still out on all of them.

[bigegypt0417]

I think this argument needs context...you can't really look in to older drafts since the influx of international talent makes the modern draft deeper.

You cultivate second round picks or even third round picks as trade "sweeteners"

in my opinion.

[Docs]

fair enough, i have imported those numbers into a spreadsheet in the past and determined probability by round of being an impactful nhl player. My conclusion is from data analysis not brief perusal of a website & i saw a significant drop off in probability in the third round, and a difference between the top and bottom of the second round. First round probability was high. NHL prospect analysis is more solid than other sports. Of course there are outliers, you have to look at all of the data to see the trends.

you can look back during any eras or timespans, for instance look from 2010-2019 and see what the percent chance someone drafted in each round plays in the NHL. I don't have the time to do again right now, but have looked at this many times over the last two decades, its one of my interests.

hockey reference is the site (not encyclopedia).

and to add to this, the flyers need impactful players, not fringe depth pieces. They have enough fringe depth pieces.

[bigegypt0417]

this is a couple of years old but has some decent info...

Breaking down each NHL team's roster by draft selection - The Win Column

[Austinfan]

It's nice to get high picks, but hard to be that bad. Odds are Flyers pick #8-12, still good odds to land a top 6/top 4 player.

Later in the draft odds decline, but with 8 picks in the first 72 or so, lot's of lottery picks. At that point more picks are less valuauble, since you only have so many players on your draft board

I'd like to see them add 2026/2027 picks.

And I'd trade back for the right deal, say Edmonton's 2025 pick for a 2nd in 2026 and a 1st in 2027.

Laughton and Risto can be traded at the TDL, this summer or next TDL or summer - since you're looking for 2026-2027 picks, there is no rush. A trade before the 2026 draft will get you the same picks you'd be looking for right now.

[Docs]

I would have no problem if they flip assets for future assets, I did not hate that they pushed the last pick of the first round last year into this year‘s first round pick although I was surprised they didn’t get a sweetener.. I would be really unhappy if they traded a first for a few thirds.

I like that all the picks they have gives them options.

[zambonir]

I would be really unhappy if they traded a first for a few thirds.

well sure, when you put it that way! I think you'd be looking at something more like a mid-round 2nd and two thirds. Or you might trade down 10 spots into the 2nd for a fourth if you think your guy is going to be there anyway.

Puckpedia currently values the Flyers two later 1st round picks as being worth the 11th overall plus a 4th round pick. But that only works if someone is willing to do it.

Would you trade two first-rounders to get in the Top 5 if you're already 8th? Maybe.