The New New Unending Flyers thread

[bigegypt0417]

I don't think AF is totallly wrong. To put it in Phillies terms again, this is like the year they signed Santana and a few veteran relievers. Next year is when they go after a Harper. But if a guy (i.e. Arrieta) turns out to be available in favorable terms you get him.

Agreed. I think where AF falls most of the time is that there is a magical timeline that has to be followed and that building an entire team through drafts is possible...history tells you that is not the case.

You take the chances to make your team better where they arise. If marner is willing to come here and you can agree to terms, you just escalate your timeline and realize he does make you and those he plays with better.

[andyb]

A hard cap does make rebuilds quicker though. The good teams never really get great as they have to trade off salary or lose free agents. If I were the Flyers I'd probably think about trading some of their draft picks (anything but the top choice) for mid-career players with term on expensive contracts. Second and third round picks can often get you those players from teams needing to move salary. The Caps for instance got solid players like Chychrun and Mangiapane that way last offseason.

A big free agent is risky of course. They just need to bet on the right one. An advantage of a younger roster is more players on their entry level and second contracts which tend to be relatively low. Use the cap room now to improve the team. They'll still draft a bunch of players but counting on second round picks for anything other than bottom lines or pairings is risky.

[Austinfan]

Even with the cap going up, it's still a cap, so you should look at % of cap.
At $113M, $13M is 12% of the cap.

Flyers are going to have to pay Michkov $10+M a year on an extension in 2-3 years if he develops the way I think he will.

Hockey is more of a "team" game than baseball, that is, teams can exploit weaknesses (especially on the road when the opposing HC gets to choose matchups). So you want stars but you also don't want "holes," Edmonton's awful penalty kill cost them the game last night.

Evolving Hockey (and a couple other sites) calculate goals above replacement (GAR) which can be converted to WAR, but I'm not sure WAR is as meaningful in hockey as baseball.
GAR is primarily dominated by offense (especially forwards) but defense, ST (both PP and PK) and penalties (drawn and taken) are included.
Since it's "above replacement," simply scoring on a PP may not create positive GAR, you have to score more than a replacement player would.
And unlike baseball, where plays are discrete, scoring and allowing goals are interdependent with linemates, D-men and goalies. Which makes this measure more subject to regression error.

I use a check on GAR, 2/3 actual GAR, 1/3 expected GAR because if you're forward looking actual GAR in general (there are a few outliers) should regress to expected GAR over time.

Marner 18.6 average GAR last 3 seasons, 18.8 actual/expected.

McDavid 29.6/29.6 is the highest, Mackinnon 26.4/26.0, Draisaitl 21.6/25.5, Matthews 22.6/23.7
Pastrnak 23.4/23.7, Kucherov 21.3/20.3, Kaprizov 20.6/22.0, Hyman 22.2/21.3, Robertson 18.8/21.2
[Hyman shows value of linemates, playing with McDavid he's far exceeded anything before in his career]
Q Hughes 20.7/21.1

GAR seems to undervalue D-men, probably b/c a lot of their value doesn't show up in counting stats.

Tippett 10.3/9.5 (Flyer fans grossly underestimate his value)
Foerster 8.1/9.5
Hathaway 7.6./8.0
Michkov 6.6/6.9 [really bad defense pulls his value down)
Brink 6.9/3.4
Pelletier 4.3/5.0
Konecky 2.8/3.0 (he was 8.6/8.8 the season before, he suffered from both overuse and lack of a stable line last season until paired with Couts and Michkov at the end of the season, he struggles on defense and needs a reliable center)

Couts 9.1/7.8
Cates 7.8/8.4
Poehling 4.2/4.1 - that would 73rd among centers, like baseball, a few at the top then a long tail to replacement
[Frost 4.6/4.0]

Some players are harder to value
Sanheim 2.2/3.3 over 3 years, but last season, one of 16 D-men to play 20+ minutes at ES
Of that group his 7.7/9.9 (GAR/xGAR) would rank about 8th.
66 D-men played 18-20 ES minutes, York was around 46th of this group

Seeler (10.3/8.8), Risto (8.8/7.8) and Drysdale in the 15-18 minute group.
Though down the stretch they were playing Drysdale more than 18 minutes a night.

D-men are a bit like SPs, how do you weigh a 150 IP who is better over those innings against a 180+ IP pitcher?

[bigegypt0417]

Hockey is more of a "team" game than baseball, that is, teams can exploit weaknesses (especially on the road when the opposing HC gets to choose matchups). So you want stars but you also don't want "holes," Edmonton's awful penalty kill cost them the game last night.

I feel like this makes zero sense..you can have the best starting pitching in baseball and if the RP's are bad and your team can't hit then you'll be terrible.

there is no way to explain that all team sports are equally TEAM sports.

[Docs]

AF - with all due respect, you are presenting all of these made up statistics to show how good the Flyers are, let’s simplify things with a meaningful statistic, points. The Flyers had the fourth fewest points in the league, they are not a good team and they need to get better. This was not an off year, they have been bad for a while. Better players will help make the team better. I’m not sold on adding the best wing at 13m a year but i do believe they need two better forwards to play with michkov and i don’t believe that his future line mates are on the current roster. They definitely need better goal tending. They definitely need better first pairing defenders. They will not get there with this roster and current set of draft picks.

[LegoDoom]

Of course AF is not totally wrong, but he definitely has his favorites (and there is nothing wrong with that). The problem is he is trying to validate his favorites.

[Docs]

A big free agent is risky of course. They just need to bet on the right one. An advantage of a younger roster is more players on their entry level and second contracts which tend to be relatively low

That’s why starting a big contract now makes sense, because you want it to expire when those cheaper younger contracts are up. If they sign people to a long deal when their draft picks are already on the roster they won’t be able to afford to resign them (which is torontos current problem). Cap management is multi dimensional

[Florida_Sunshine]

I agree with what Andy, AF and Zambonir have posted above. Rather than force a signing of expensive free agent now, lets give it another year, maybe two, to see how things look before we do that. There are a lot of good pieces on this team, some may develop into solid valuable first and second liners, we just don't know yet. Let the team use their prospects and draft picks to acquire other pieces. Keep an eye out for pieces we need. Use our assets to acquire missing pieces.

[LegoDoom]

I agree with what Andy, AF and Zambonir have posted above. Rather than force a signing of expensive free agent now, lets give it another year, maybe two, to see how things look before we do that. There are a lot of good pieces on this team, some may develop into solid valuable first and second liners, we just don't know yet. Let the team use their prospects and draft picks to acquire other pieces. Keep an eye out for pieces we need. Use our assets to acquire missing pieces.

I understand your point, but you have to be ahead of the curve. Who are the Flyers waiting on? Trading potential talent is much better than failed talent.

I'm not even saying that the Flyers should sign Marner, but AFs point that Marner is the product of the line he is on is ridiculous.

[Florida_Sunshine]

LegoDoom,

I think your point is consistent with what I posted and was supporting with Andy, AF, and Zambonir. I think we really need to see where we are as a team after the draft. I don't think anyone here really doesn't expect to see movement by Briere. It may not happen, but I am sure the Flyers will try.

Side note: Who do you want with #6? Still Ecklund?

[andyb]

I think we really need to see where we are as a team after the draft.

I think they should make trades with a bunch of their draft picks. They just can't develop all of them at once and it is really the best currency they have to trade for mid-career veterans who are usually a better bet than free agents. If they can trade up also (getting a second pick higher in the first round) they should explore that. Use your draft picks for more quality since they have so much quantity.

[LegoDoom]

Side note: Who do you want with #6? Still Ecklund?

I'm still on Eklund as I think he has a great upside, but there will be a lot of solid prospects that I wouldn't hate. I could get on board with a C at #6 as long as they take some gambles in the late 1st and 2nd. The problem with that is that I like Ryabkin a lot later in the first, so taking the best wing early with a huge upside and then Ryabkin (with also a huge upside) is more of my style.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Andyb,

I want to make sure you read my post to LegoDoom.

Let the team use their prospects and draft picks to acquire other pieces. Keep an eye out for pieces we need. Use our assets to acquire missing pieces.

Nothing may happen but reading the tea leaves from Briere, isn't that what he is saying?

[andyb]

Only thing was timing. They have to make some of these moves before or during the draft. Agree with your logic though. They have draft assets and they should trade some (not all and not their top pick certainly) for pieces.

[Austinfan]

The Flyers were 4th worst strictly b/c of their goaltenders, according to Natural Stat Trick, they allowed 54 more goals than expected. The next worst was Nashville with 33.
2023-24: Flyers +23, Ottawa +36 was the worst
2022-23: Flyers +14, CBJ +42, San Jose +39
2021-22: Flyers +28, Detroit +45, Arizona +40
2020-21: Flyers +55, SJ +34, Buf +33 - in 56 Games!
2019-20: Flyers +11, Detroit +44 in 69 games
2018-19: Flyers +48, Ottawa +54
All situations, Flyers had 6 more expected net goals - that's good enough for 90-92 points.
ES: xGF% 51.87%, HDCF% 52.85%

Thoughts:
1) Flyers are a solid team at even strength, despite trading Frost, Farabee and Laughton, then flipping Kuz. By the end of the season they were fielding three solid lines. The defense was solid until Risto got hurt, then the pairs got jumbled (York was moved to Drysdale, Seeler to Sanheim and Andrae/Zamula struggled.

2) They need another line, hopefully good enough to push Poehling down to 4C, though he was solid at 3C. Eventually you want an upgrade at center over Couts and Cates. Wing was probably their strength, and if they draft another center to go with Jett, will be even stronger if Couts moves to LW along with Barkey, Grebenkin, and Bump as depth. If they draft Martone or Eklund, wing will be top level.

3) Defense needs to be reshaped, Seeler and Risto are short-term fixes, Sanheim, Bonk, York, then ??? Andrae, Zamula can play but not with each other, Grans, McDonald, Samson, and eventually Gill are unknowns. Adding another top 4 D-man should be a priority along with center.

4) Goalie needs a long-term solution, Ersson for now, Bjarnason in LHV, Zavragin is a top KHL starter at 19 but contract doesn't expire until 2027. I expect at least one, maybe 2 goalies to be drafted this summer. In the short-run, a veteran to pair with Ersson, but few top goalies are ever available other than the draft.

[Austinfan]

They should when the right opportunity presents itself.

They're rebuilding and won't be competitive (top 8, making the playoffs in NHL like going .500 in baseball) until probably 2027 or 2028. Briere has job security, so he doesn't have to make "win now" deals.

Briere is very patient, which is how he got 1st rd picks for Walker and Laughton, "overpricing" his own players so he wasn't bidding against himself, and throwing in sweeteners (Johanson's contract, 4th rd pick) to make deals work and getting throw-ins (Grebenkin).

I expect him to make moves over the next couple years, he may move around the draft, trade forward into 2026 or trade for a young player who's a good fit. If he doesn't extend Poehling he may move him this summer or the TDL. Seeler's NMC expires this summer, Hathaway has 2 years left on his deal. Risto's injury will make him harder to move, but come the TDL, if he's healthy he'll have a market. And they have an extra 1st and 3rd in 2027, so Briere will have more assets next summer.

But there's no rush, making the playoffs next season should be due to the process working, not forced.
The best reason to bring in a veteran center patch is to send Jett back to the CHL for more seasoning and provide a center for young wings like Barkey, Bump, etc.
Possible trades could be built around players and picks for players who are better long-term fits.

[LegoDoom]

Side note: Who do you want with #6? Still Ecklund?

I'm still on Eklund as I think he has a great upside, but there will be a lot of solid prospects that I wouldn't hate. I could get on board with a C at #6 as long as they take some gambles in the late 1st and 2nd. The problem with that is that I like Ryabkin a lot later in the first, so taking the best wing early with a huge upside and then Ryabkin (with also a huge upside) is more of my style.

I hate to quote myself, but I have previously said that I try to figure out a way to beat a team/player. It's going to be hard to beat Eklund. His downside is his size and position? He plays much bigger than his size. He has a good hockey IQ.

AF can rant on about Tippett, but I'm not sure he understands the game. That's not to say he's not useful... I would always take talented player on my team, but I'm not sure he understands his role.

I think that Tippett was a good value for G, but G is still crushing it in his late 30s and the Flyers likely lost that trade unless Tippett learns how to play hockey.

[Docs]

Except G wasn’t going to sign another contract with the flyers so it was deal him or lose him for nothing in free agency. Plus it was rumored that Colorado had a better deal for the flyers but G preferred Florida and the Flyers did right by him

[Austinfan]

Tippett is what he is, he's improved defensively, he's a better passer, but he's never going to be a high IQ player.
But he's 6'1 210 and one of the fastest players in the NHL, has a plus shot and is a good enough puck carrier to be one of the Flyers best zone entry guys.
He has a non-stop motor, he's physical, and has plenty of stamina.
He's shown he can play both sides, so he provides some flexibility in creating lines.

At $6M with a rising cap, a guy who gives you 20+ goals a year without being a defensive liability is a bargain.
Past two seasons, all situations, he's 82 in goals scored (48). The median 2nd line forward would be #96.
Don't expect him to be a 1st line forward and you'll be happy, he's certainly a solid 2RW - if they're deep enough he has to play on the third line, that is rich people's problems.

[bigegypt0417]

They should when the right opportunity presents itself.

They're rebuilding and won't be competitive (top 8, making the playoffs in NHL like going .500 in baseball) until probably 2027 or 2028. Briere has job security, so he doesn't have to make "win now" deals.

The flyers with a few even smaller moves including a league average goalie would be a playoff team. Regardless of the goalposts you set up this team could be in the post season next year. Adding a few players with a goalie and they are even a better team.

Your bar for this is the only success is 3 years of being bad on the chance you hit gold on a lottery ticket. This group of leaders in the FO and the coaches would not survive 3 more years of being bad..

It's not realistic.