The Girardi watch is on

[flyers19rw]

It's really all on the players. Can they hit the ball? Can they hit the ball hard? Can they run? Can they catch the ball? Can they throw? Unfortunately some of the Phillies can not or have not shown the ability to do these things well on a consistent basis. So what the phans are asking is for the manager to try to put a lineup on the field that can mask these deficiencies as well as possible. That's a tough job. So far Girardi has struggled with it. He is going to need some help from Dombrowski to balance out this lineup. I see some trades and cuts coming over the next six weeks.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't say the Middleton years are any better or worse than the Monty years or the Giles years (and he's been involved in all of them, but especially every decision since 2008, including the bad ones). In all cases there was a bit of luck, and some front office people who were able to outperform the dysfunction for a limited period of time.

I did think replacing MacPhail with Dombrowski meant Middleton would operate in a more detached fashion, and I think he has. But this is still mostly the team - and lord knows, the organization - he built during the last two eras (MacPhail and Gillick Part 2).

The manager never deserves as much blame as fans like to give but when you weren't hired by the current GM, aren't under contract, and haven't really ever led a team to better-than-expected results in your entire career (except maybe with the Marlins) he's not someone you have to hold on to at all costs either.

[Ryles]

Ruben

[zambonir]

Heh, I'd be semi-okay with it. If it works, great, if not, he's interim. It does seem inevitable that he winds up back with the team, and he's not gonna settle for advisor.

I also thought Rollins actually. They just moved his job from being under Middleton to being under the baseball people. But I doubt he wants to work that hard.

[Ryles]

I was thinking about Jimmy also. Not so sure he wants the day-to-day grind with a young family.

[BostonRoss]

It seems extreme to me to talk about firing Girardi after a slow start by the Phillies. It isn't clear to me what he could have done to win more games. The players just aren't playing well enough. It isn't his fault that the starting pitchers have been awful, and he certainly can't make this group be good defensively. Playing Stott more wouldn't have helped (playing him today might have cost them another win).

This team will win only if the pitching comes around.

[zambonir]

I'm not saying it wouldn't be an overreaction - nor that it would likely help - just that such an overreaction would be consistent with the recent organizational history. If you're a lame-duck manager working for a GM that didn't hire him (even if he has the owner on his side) in a playoff-or-bust year you're already on the hot seat. It would be scapegoating pure and simple but I can't imagine the Phillies want the fan anger (and loss of expected attendance boost) that's coming if this team turns out to be Emperor's New Clothes.

To the extent that I might blame him, it has nothing to do with strategy or line-up decisions. But his track record has been one of underachievement and late-season collapses. If they are still playing like this after a full month can you afford to wait out a second one? And would even just squeaking into the playoffs get him an extension at this point?

[BostonRoss]

I agree that it would be a typical thing to do (and many teams fire the manager when there are other problems with the team). Also agree that Girardi has not really distinguished himself as the Phillies manager. I have no attachment to him

I didn't think this team was much better than last year's team anyway. The offense may be a little better (though part of that is due to having a DH, which is an improvement for all NL teams), and hopefully the bullpen is better. But there are several players who are likely to be worse than in 2021 (Wheeler, Harper, Segura). The only way for the Phillies to be much better is to get big improvements in several places, perhaps requiring further acquisitions in-season (players, not manager/coaches).

[zambonir]

Which begs the existential question - what was Dombrowski hired to do, and what are realistic expectations for this team? I'm not sure I like the answer. Was it worth going over the CBT and taking on more veteran salaries with unappealing back ends for what might just end up being a few more seasons of modest contention (84-87 wins) or a lucky playoff run? When they fired Kapler and hired Girardi they claimed the talent was already there. One year later, in firing the GM, they admitted it really wasn't (and more importantly never arrived from the minors). But they've continued to double down on winning now, and while they don't really have a choice short of a total blow-up, do they really think they can get to - let's set a modest goal here - the NLCS in the next 2-3 seasons? Would they actually blow through the next tier this season if they have to, or exceed the CBT a second year?

[allentown]

let's set a modest goal here - the NLCS in the next 2-3 seasons? Would they actually blow through the next tier this season if they have to, or exceed the CBT a second year?

That is an inadequate goal, and I'm confident that Middleton will view it as such. DD sold Middleton on exceeding the lux cap this season, something which has been utter anathema to ownership since forever (the cap wasn't always here, but whether suggested draft bonuses or commissioner intent on international #, the Phillies had NEVER exceeded even voluntary $ guidelines on anything. Doing so this season was a HUGE change. Something they refused to do for $6 million in internal annual budget over-run, not even one of commissioners suggested caps, to pair Lee, and Halladay with a breaking out Hamels.) So, what did DD say to Middleton to get him to break with all of Phillies $ fealty to the commissioner? It certainly wasn't a projection that with the extra $ the team could increase its win total to 85-86. I'm guessing the minimum acceptable, and what was at least semi-promised, was reaching the playoffs and winning one series this year coupled with reaching NLCS in 2-3 years. The problem is, the uphill is going to become steeper to reach NLCS. It will be harder 2 years from now and even harder 3 years from now as our big $ players age. Best shot is probably next season and it will require both another over-cap salary budget and rushing at least one impactful rookie to the majors. McGarry?

[zambonir]

I think DD got snookered by Boras, to be honest. He just loves Castellanos, and thought he'd be a clubhouse chemistry-changer as well as a big bat (which he well might be, but they still didn't need this many DHs). And the market became team-favorable, when there wasn't much else left (like pitching. SS, yes, but clearly they weren't willing to add to that logjam).

Maybe he'll be able to change the mix on the trade market, and it's not like they won't have money to spend with Didi and Segura gone. Bohm, Stott and an early arrival in CF would be big. But there's also no real rotation help on the way with Gibson and Eflin gone this year and Nola next year. Presumably if they are in it they will try to get a controllable arm this deadline, as they did last year.

But being on this path also pretty much guarantees they will trade a lot of prospects over the next two years (that's all Dombrowski has left at the moment) if they are actually in it.

[allentown]

But there's also no real rotation help on the way with Gibson and Eflin gone this year and Nola next year

I expect Eflin and Nola to be re-signed. At present, we have only almost 5 okay starters, in a game in which we are certain to need 6 and will probably need 7. We're spending, so unless they are bad this year, Eflin and Nola return. Gibson likely gone and I'm guessing replaced by McGarry. Abel and Baker still a ways away.

[zambonir]

Nola will return next year. Eflin may want to test the market (or at least will need a reason not to, assuming he performs this year). I think Nola's gone after next year but it doesn't really matter, either way the Phillies will need to fill that spot with an expensive free agent, whether it's Nola himself or someone new.

[flyers19rw]

It looks to me like the Phillies will fill any future holes is the rotation either with a trade of one of the too many DH types or by signing a FA arm with the money freed up by letting Didi and Segura go.
The biggest rotation issue to me is not who is going to be in it for the future but the drop off in efficiency with Nola and the possibility that Wheeler threw out his arm last season. It might make sense to see what Nola could bring back in a deal right now rather than hang with him and see a further decline.

[zambonir]

I don't think Nola is declining, he is just - a #3-4 starter rather than a 1-2. And Eflin is likely no better than that as well. Ditto Suarez. So next year's team likely needs a top guy who may also slot ahead of Wheeler as he ages. If they are contending and buying at the deadline hopefully it happens then. Adding a Kyle Gibson won't be enough for this team's expectations (in fact you literally might be hoping to upgrade on the actual Kyle Gibson).

Wheeler will probably be okay, just not as good as last year. (I mean, sure, he's a pitcher, he could also end up having surgery).

[andyb]

I'd still say Nola has the stuff of a #2-#3 starter. His command has slipped to average unfortunately. The K rate though indicates the stuff is still there and we really have not seen declines in velocity or movement.

He never was a number 1. He just pitched like it for one year when his command was off the charts. It still did not make him what most people in baseball consider a number 1.

No idea how he really feels about playing in Philly, but he might extend on a somewhat friendly deal. He seems pretty happy from his various interviews.

[BostonRoss]

I think Dombrowski was brought in to win quickly, but I disagree with the way he is going about it (or maybe he had different ideas than what he ended up doing, but couldn't execute). I would have tried to improve the rotation and the defense. Maybe Correa didn't want to come here, but I would have made him the #1 priority. Maybe consider a trade for Chapman involving Bohm. For all we know he did try to do things like this but couldn't make it happen. But with Harper, Bohm, and Hoskins on the team, I wouldn't have been signing a DH. Maybe one of Schwarber and Castellanos, but not both,

[andyb]

I think DD probably mentally dismissed Bohm as an important part of the team when he was building it for this season. He did not anticipate the bat coming back as it now might be doing. If Bohm was going to be a consistent 800+ OPS bat they probably don't get Castellanos and might even experiment with Bohm in LF slowly (though with Schwarber they would not have to do that).

A Hoskins trade in the next offseason probably makes sense if Bohm is hitting well and can't play 3B adequately.

[Taudawg]

I thought this thread was about Joe Girardi being on the hot seat

[zambonir]

Well it's a little early for the hot stove!