The Ended Flyers Thread

[kmc1019]

I think there's a logical fallacy in assuming that any of the young forwards will necessarily match Giroux's and Voracek's offensive output. Hart may be the top goaltending prospect in the game, but none of the forward prospects profile as 100 point scorers, which is what you'd be dealing away in Giroux.

I'd pursue an offseason strategy of keeping top 6 forwards intact, inserting Hart as goalie next year, allowing young defense to mature, and -if possible - clearing out the mediocrity and bad contracts on the 3rd and 4th lines and trying to upgrade talent there.

[LegoDoom]

Did I miss news about Simmonds (which is very possible)? He's been invisible and not getting a lot of ice time.

I am starting to get excited about Nolan Patrick. He's looked much better the last few months and even better recently.

Regarding the offseason... I still think you can build around G, Voracek, Couturier, TK, and Patrick. I think Simmonds is the obvious player to be dealt unless they think they can contend next year. Getting Filppula off the books will help. Maybe MacDonald can be dealt after two good years and only two years left on his deal? I still can't believe how bad his contract was.

Giroux, Voracek, Couturier, Ghost, TK, Provorov, and Patrick are all set for a while. A bunch of money comes off the books in 2 years, which is when I think they could add another big player or two to pair with the young guys and make a run while the top line is still productive.

Trading Giroux and Voracek would remind me of when Carter and Richards were dealt. I liked both of those trades, so I would potentially be fine with it (even though I like Giroux and Voracek much more than I ever liked Richards... I was a Carter fan). I guess it really depends on what the return would be.

[bigegypt0417]

Did I miss news about Simmonds (which is very possible)? He's been invisible and not getting a lot of ice time.

I am starting to get excited about Nolan Patrick. He's looked much better the last few months and even better recently.

Regarding the offseason... I still think you can build around G, Voracek, Couturier, TK, and Patrick. I think Simmonds is the obvious player to be dealt unless they think they can contend next year. Getting Filppula off the books will help. Maybe MacDonald can be dealt after two good years and only two years left on his deal? I still can't believe how bad his contract was.

Giroux, Voracek, Couturier, Ghost, TK, Provorov, and Patrick are all set for a while. A bunch of money comes off the books in 2 years, which is when I think they could add another big player or two to pair with the young guys and make a run while the top line is still productive.

Trading Giroux and Voracek would remind me of when Carter and Richards were dealt. I liked both of those trades, so I would potentially be fine with it (even though I like Giroux and Voracek much more than I ever liked Richards... I was a Carter fan). I guess it really depends on what the return would be.

Flyers also have 2 first round picks this year, currently 16 and 19. I wonder if they package them up to move?

[Austinfan]

Right now those picks are #14 and #19, but if St Louis wins the lottery and ends up in the top ten that pick is deferred to next year (and a 3rd in 2020), but odds are long (about 5%).

Flyers need to clear out salary, not to add a big money "name" free agent but to lock up their top young players on RFA contracts the next few years - thus ensuring the core of this team stays together.

They have some very talented players who will be arriving the next few years, Frost, Allison, Laczynski (Ohio State), Ratcliffe, Hart, and so on. Strome is tearing it up in the playoffs. In two years this team will be loaded for bear, not just the NHL team, but also their AHL affiliate - at that point Hextall can play "let's make a deal."

PS: Once Patrick gets to work out this summer (missed two summers due to surgery) he's going to be an absolute stud next year, size, speed, hands, shot, and very high Hockey IQ - the complete package. Just needs to get stronger to handle the traffic.

[LegoDoom]

Flyers need to clear out salary, not to add a big money "name" free agent but to lock up their top young players on RFA contracts the next few years - thus ensuring the core of this team stays together.

This seems very wrong to me. The team has a ton of cap room in 2 years and maybe even enough next year to add a high priced player.

Voracek, Giroux, Couturier, and Ghost are already signed long-term. Patrick, TK, and Provorov will easily be extended. Who else are you talking about? It seems like a non-issue to me.

They will clear out salary based off of the methods I previously stated. Provorov and TK needs to be extended after 2019... sure.

I think the current 2019-2020 salary allocation is about half of the cap ceiling. There is no way Provorov and TK will get near that. So who else are you giving the money to?

[LegoDoom]

And the two 1st round picks this year will at least fill out some of the roster. One or two top line free agents and the team will be 3 lines deep, which is what they really need (besides a goalie).

I am all for building through the draft, but with hitting on Provorov and TK and then getting Patrick to add to Giroux, Voracek, Couturier, and Ghost (all on long term deals)... exactly what is your plan? Stand pat with a line short of a contending team?

[zambonir]

As flawed as this team was, and as up-and-down as the season was, The Flyers could have been one of the top four teams in the East, and might have made it (assuming this series is really over) to the second (or even third) round if not for seeding luck. They should be trying to win the division next year, even if it's with a rookie goalie (though I doubt that's going to be Hart). If they aren't then yeah, the Giroux/Voracek era should probably be over, and maybe the Hakstol era will be too (I'm not necessarily in favor of that but can he/the team/the fans really wait for his fifth or sixth season to truly "arrive"?).

[Austinfan]

Big name contracts (like Tavares) tend to be 6-8 years long, talk is of a 5 year deal for 33 year old Paul Stasny.
Flyers will have to pay $12-14M to extend both TK and Provorov.
Then you have to extend Patrick and Lindblom and Sanheim.

The money adds up, and it's better spent building up a core of young players who can grow together.

[LegoDoom]

Big name contracts (like Tavares) tend to be 6-8 years long, talk is of a 5 year deal for 33 year old Paul Stasny.
Flyers will have to pay $12-14M to extend both TK and Provorov.
Then you have to extend Patrick and Lindblom and Sanheim.

The money adds up, and it's better spent building up a core of young players who can grow together.

Ghost just signed a 6 year deal, so I am not sure what your concern is with regards to 6 year deals. Is it the age? I am not advocating signing a 33 year old for 6 years.

I also don't think that TK commands a $6M AAV contract. I'm not even sure that Provorov commands one. He's an incredible player, but Ghost just signed a 6/$27M deal. Patrick and Lindblom is a year after that when the Flyers have even more money to spend and Lindblom doesn't seem like he'll demand a big contract.

The team will have a ton of money in a few years and have the top guys signed for a while. I am all for keeping Provorov, TK, and Patrick, but no one else is all that critical and there's a good chance they can be replaced by future draft picks.

I like TK, but I'm not even sure he's a top 6 forward. I am much more hesitant to say that about Lindblom. Let's see how things shake out in the next two years, but to write off signing a top-6 forward in order to keep 3rd liners doesn't seem right. Especially since the team lacks a 2nd line and has multiple 1st round picks coming up.

[Austinfan]

I'm talking about big money deals for free agents.

The second line is just fine, Patrick is going to be a monster, Lindblom is a solid LW and Voracek, despite his mindfarts, is a top playmaker. It's the bottom six that needs to be shored up.

Provorov will get paid more than Ghost, he's a premier young defenseman.
Konency was on a PPG pace since he joined the first line.
Patrick, if he breaks out next year, will be looking at big money, same with Sanheim.

[bigegypt0417]

Flyers need to clear out salary, not to add a big money "name" free agent but to lock up their top young players on RFA contracts the next few years - thus ensuring the core of this team stays together.

This seems very wrong to me. The team has a ton of cap room in 2 years and maybe even enough next year to add a high priced player.

There is no sport and no scenario where AF will not tell us that signing talented, big money players is a bad idea. He wants to see a team built in a way no one has ever built a team.

[LegoDoom]

The second line is just fine, Patrick is going to be a monster, Lindblom is a solid LW and Voracek, despite his mindfarts, is a top playmaker. It's the bottom six that needs to be shored up.

The second line is average or a bit above. And Simmonds seems like he won't be in the long-term plans.

I am surprised that you like Lindblom as he really hasn't put up great production at any level (he's been decent). Don't you normally like production and don't care much about age?

Patrick has shown flashes. Being a monster is more than a stretch.

Hopefully Morgan Frost can be a 2nd liner. My guess is he will be similar to TK.

Provorov will get paid more than Ghost, he's a premier young defenseman.

I love Provorov, but I doubt he gets paid as a top 10 defensemen.

Konency was on a PPG pace since he joined the first line.

That tends to happen when you play with Grioux and Couturier. Heck, have you seen Couturier's stats when he was put on the top line? Do you really think that TK will get a bigger contract than Couturier?

That's why I think your contract numbers are off. And the fact that the guys you are mentioning won't even need contracts for 1-2 years when the team will have a lot of cap space.

Patrick, if he breaks out next year, will be looking at big money, same with Sanheim.

He won't be getting big money until his contract expires.

Aside from the guys mentioned, no one is going to command even decent money in the near future. Maybe Frost or Hart after their initial contracts expire, but that is 4 years away. Is there some superstar in the system that I'm not aware of that would have the team shy away from bringing in a top-6 forward?

Giroux-Couts-TK
FA-Patrick-Voracek
Lindblom-Frost-???

That would be a decent team. Maybe replace the FA with Simmonds for this next year or if the team signs a FA in the offseason, then replace the ??? with Simmonds.

[LegoDoom]

Why is Gudas still on the team?

Jamie Apody on Twitter

[Austinfan]

Patrick will be a monster, he's finally getting healthy, he had surgery two summers in a row and hasn't had a real offseason workout regime, but in the last two months his skating has improved by leaps and bounds. Let him add strength to go with his instincts, shot, great eye to hand coordination and he'll be an elite center.

Lindblom at age 20 was one of the top 3 forwards in the SHL, a men's league which is third best in the world after the NHL and KHL. He's just a tad bit off with his timing, but all advanced stats point to how well he plays the game, he forechecks, goes to the net and is defensively responsible.

Couts was underpaid b/c he was used as a defensive specialist until Hakstol started increasing his role. The last three years one trend, anyone who plays with him plays better.

Konency is helped by playing with G & Couts, but he's an explosive player with great acceleration and an improving shot, plus he's a "brat" like Marchand but not as dirty, feisty, tough player who'll be more effective as he gets experience and adds a few more lbs.

Frost is nothing like TK, Frost has great speed but he's not an explosive skater like TK, he's extremely smart (Hextall raves about his hockey IQ), has improved his shot, first rate playmaker. He's coming off a post-draft season where he was one of the top 2-3 players in junior hockey, 112 points in 67 games after a slow start wiith a ridiculous +70.

NAK will be up next year in the bottom six. Speedy forechecker with some offensive skills
Vorobyev will be up at some point next year, physical playmaking center, full season in the AHL after spot duty in the KHL for two years, still learning, but great ice vision (great passer from behind the net).
Phil Myers was dinged up a bit, but when healthy was a top defenseman in the AHL and one of the top prospects in all of hockey.
Morin was injured most of this year but should be on the team next year.
Isaac Ratcliffe (41 goals in 67 games post-draft) is a couple years away but great size (6'6) speed combo in a power forward.
Wade Allison was tearing up college (22g 15-15) before he blew out his knee.
Matthew Strome (aka the "Water Bear") had a solid post-draft junior year and has stepped in up in the playoffs, size, hands, smarts, only question is his skating.
Tanner Laczynski was a top scorer in college as a sophomore for Ohio State, waiting to see if he goes pro.
Carter Hart is the best goalie not in the NHL, .947 save % in the regular season, .944 in the WHL playoffs.

And they have a bunch of other solid prospects who'll be in the AHL or SHL next year, Friedman, Rubtsov, Laberge, Twarynski, Bunnaman in the AHL, Kase, Lycksell, Hogberg and Bernhardt in the SHL, plus another group in juniors and college.

So they're in the middle of a great rebuild, in another year or two Hextall will be positioned to make the trade to put them over the top, but right now it's just a matter of growing your own.

[LegoDoom]

That is a long list of players who won't even get much ice time in the NHL.

I did forget to list Ratcliffe, though. I hope he finds a spot on the team in the next few years.

I wasn't really talking about defencemen, but I hope Myers and Sanheim can develop. Morin has never really been healthy, but has always seemed like a bottom pairing type of guy to me.

Keep in mind by the time your list of players develops and the team rebuilds, Giroux and Voracek will be on the decline. So the team would need to replace them. Finding a 90+ and an 80+ scorer in that list of players who aren't currently in the NHL seems doubtful. If that is your plan, then the team should be looking to move Giroux, Voracek, or Couturier (his production compared to his contract would probably yield the biggest return).

The team doesn't really need a "great rebuild". They could contend while rebuilding. It would take one FA in order to strengthen the top 2 lines and build a legit 3rd line.

And even a veteran on a 5 year contract wouldn't really hamper the development of the prospects you are mentioning that will need a contract for 3-4 years.

[Austinfan]

This team should be competitive by 2019-20 (not just make the playoffs, but do some damage).
At that point G is 32 and V is 30, they should still be solid 2nd line guys.
As they've shown they're not good enough to carry a team, so the future depends on the kids in any case.

Most of these players I listed should arrive by then, and the rest a year later.
Right now they have #14 and #19, and a Simmonds trade is a high probability event

Possible 2019-20 roster
Lindblom (23) - Patrick (21) - TK (23)
Giroux (32) - Couts (27) - Voracek (30)
Ratcliffe (21)/Laughton (25) - Frost (21) - Laczynski (22)/Allison (23)
Twarnyski (22)/Rubtsov (22)/Strome (21) - Vorobyev (23) - NAK (23)/Sushko (21)/Laberge (22)
Point is they're not putting all their eggs in one basket for the bottom six, lot's of options

Provorov (23) - Ghost (26)
Sanheim (23) - Myers (23)
Morin (24) - Friedman (24) / Gudas (29)

Hart (22) - Sandstrom (23) - Ustimenko (21)

What I expect is in the summer of 2019 and/or 2020 Hextall will do a 3 for 1 (solid prospect, 1st rd, 2nd rd pick) for a young veteran to shore up the top nine on offense or top four on defense.

[LegoDoom]

So, your future plan is to have your 2nd line making ~$21M a year, but you don't want to add in a top-6 guy next year?

And your top line, while talented, isn't enough to do "some damage" in the playoffs. None of us have enough info on Patrick (or Lindblom) to say one way or the other how good of a player he can be.

I was never advocating putting all their eggs in one basket. I was actually doing the opposite. Bringing in a top-6 forward and hoping the current prospects would fill out the rest of the roster. If the majority of the prospects hit, then it's a good spot to be in as they have multiple player at different ages with different contracts to move.

And you're wrong... Giroux and Voracek have been carrying the team. Couturier, too, but he's been underutilized. This is a 1 line team with 2 good defencemen. If you are comparing them to the Penguins, then yeah... Giroux and Voracek aren't as good as Crosby and Malkin. It takes a lot more for a team to be able to win than 2 players, though As was shown when Couturier shut down Malkin the one year. Also, the team has been decent despite a lot of money allocated towards the goalies.

TK is great, but his production has been increased because of the players he's been with. You put him on the 2nd or 3rd line and he scores half as much. It's a lot easier to play with a top passer/scorer in Giroux and a top 2-way player in Couturier. He really just has to skate, wait for a pass, and shoot. He has so much spacing because of who he's playing with.

What does your lineup look like a year later? Or two? If the team can't really contend a year after your 2019-2020 roster, then the top line should be shopped this offseason.

But there is still hockey to be played this year and it looks like we will just disagree. I hope you're right and every prospect will reach their maximum potential.

[Austinfan]

When Voracek was with Filppula, his scoring fell off as well, that's the nature of forwards.
Which is why playmaking centers are so valuable.

There is plenty of information on Patrick, at 17, two years before the draft, he dominated junior hockey.
Then he had his injury, the doctor botched the surgery, he struggled through his pre-draft season, and was still on a 100+ point pace before he was shut down.
Second surgery last summer meant he was never able to train for the season.
Despite that, he was still the #2 pick in the draft, had he been healthy, a good chance he'd have been #1.

As he gets closer to 100%, the skills that got him drafted so high are apparent.
I have complete confidence that he's going to be a special player, the best player we've had since Lindros.

As far as the prospects "reaching their maximum potential," just like any sport, some will, some won't.
As we've seen with the Phillies pitching, there's safety in numbers.
Flyers have enough numbers that they should be able to fill out a roster with quality players in a couple years.

The problem is the top free agent forward is Tavares, and while a good scorer, he's a mediocre defender. He'll get overpaid for scoring (and this year on a team that plays a style that inflates scoring), but it doesn't make sense for the Flyers to pay him $10-12M a year for 6-8 years when they have Couts, Patrick and Frost.

Ironically, the player Tavares most resembles to me is Voracek, both had great seasons at age 24 but have never quite played that well again, both are prolific scorers but not top two way forwards. And both depend on the PP to pad their scoring stats.

[LegoDoom]

There is plenty of information on Patrick, at 17, two years before the draft, he dominated junior hockey.

I really don't want to get into a further discussion, but you are the person that told me that I shouldn't look at stats from 17/18/19 year old NBA prospects?

If so, why are you bringing up these stats? If not, I apologize.

[zambonir]

While I'm glad Hextall has been relatively patient (not entirely his fault they didn't go full rebuild sooner) and Mr. Snider isn't the one calling the shots, I have a hard time believing that a sixth-year GM and a 4th-year coach are going to spin their wheels for one or two more seasons. Doesn't have to mean signing a big/old free agent to the highest/longest possible contract, any more than it did for the Phillies (not that the market factors are the same). One way or another there will be moves, and trading either a draft pick or more than one of the core guys might be the way.

Depending what they do they can also have it both ways a little bit. The goal should be to have a 100+ point team w/ room to add talent at the deadline, plus the tantalizing possiblity of a young goalie carrying them in the second half. But if things go truly bad (worse than this year) they'll be sellers at the deadline with a new coach in 2019.

(Assuming they don't have a new one soon. Not because they should win this series but because the body of work isn't that great, and he and Hextall don't always seem to be on the same page.)