With the Blues winning their first Stanley Cup in 52 seasons, the Flyers move up to #4 on the current championship drought list.
Niskanen is an upgrade, played over 20 minutes a night on the 1st pair in the last five Cap playoff runs. And that was under two different HCs. Lot of trust there.
He admits he's not the same player he was in his prime, but his role won't be to carry the defense, but to be a stabilizing partner and coach on the ice with the young defensemen we're rolling this year, Provorov, Sanheim, Myers, Morin and maybe Friedman. Ghost can't play that role b/c his talent is sui generis, his fundamentals are a bit shaky.
Gudas was fun, but he was also a 3rd pair D-man (15 ES minutes a night last two years), and he's was efficient, but with a very funky style. Did work hard to curb his psychotic streak. Good clubhouse guy but I've never seen him as a mentor type.
Wow, we got a declining (points total and on-ice time, if I read the article correctly) defenseman for almost 6 million dollars a year. This doesn't strike me a money well spent.
"Niskanen was part of the Capitals' run to a Stanley Cup title in 2018, but his productivity dipped last season, as he had his fewest points (25) since 2012-13 while his per-game time on ice was his lowest in five seasons in Washington.... Niskanen is under contract for two more seasons at an average annual value of $5.75 million.
Flyers have a lot of short-term cap room, you can't roll cap room forward in the NHL, so spending some the next two years is basically inconsequential - because cap room for long-term deals (guaranteed like baseball) has to factor in all the RFA contracts they'll have to negotiate the next few years.
So use it or lose it.
I thought this trade could be explained by the Flyers' fixation on adding another righthanded defenseman. But they also subtracted one in the process. Different but comparable players in terms of effectiveness at this point in their careers, both borderline top 4. Flyers swap cheaper, shorter contract for longer, more expensive one. Headscratcher of a move.
From the Caps perspective this is a great trade. Salary cap relief plus a depth defenseman (will be 3rd pairing for the Caps) for an older top 4 guy.
Niskanen had a rough start last year but his second half was quite good. He did not play as many minutes as in the past mainly because Carlson earned more and Kempney was a more reliable partner for Carlson. Niskanen and Orlov also drew the top offensive lines as opponents, so their plus/minus took a hit because of that. Niskanen is a pretty balanced player. Good mobility and size, so he probably ages pretty well. Whether that is a major improvement for the Flyers is harder to say. If they had the cap room to burn though, and a 2-year commitment to Niskanen sets them up to use that room on a longer term commitment in a couple of years then that could help.
Great deal for the Caps. Now awful for the Flyers.
The Caps needed cap relief, Flyers needed an experienced RHD who could be a mentor to their young defensemen.
I loved Gudas, but he was limited athletically, and wasn't the mentor type, tough, very efficient but you couldn't leave him on an island against a top forward - just go back to the Pens playoff series.
Niskanen is on the decline, even he admits that, but is still a top 4 who has played the tough minutes in five straight playoff series against the opponents' best scorers. He'll be a great on ice coach for a D-corp with lots of young and talent.
They need to trade for Trouba, maybe they could put a package around Ghost, and their 1st and 3rd round picks (they have 2). That would make the pairings Provarov/Trouba, Sanheim/Myers, Hagg/Niskanen.
NO. Trouba just isn't that good, he wants to be paid like a #1 defenseman, whereas he's a middle of the road 1st pair guy - has never received a single Norris vote, his metrics say he's good but not great offensively and average defensively, and his PP scoring has less value for a Flyers team with Ghost, one of the best PP QBs in the league, and Sanheim, a budding offensive star.
Trouba as a one year rental is worth no more than the 2020 1st rd pick (top ten protected), just look at the Harmonic and Hamilton trades, both players were cost controlled (Harmonic with 3 cheap years and Hamilton with 4 RFA years left).
No different than baseball, with guaranteed contracts and a hard salary cap, you can't afford to overpay for talent and remain competitive.
The Flyers waive MacDonald for the purpose of terminating his contract. The move will cost them $3,833,333 ($1,916,667 a year over the next two years). He was scheduled to make $5,750.000 next season.
I think it's a perfectly fine gamble on Niskanen, that he has some bounce-back, and improves based on role/usage. I assume the MacDonald move was somewhat related too (in that Niskanen gives them cost certainty for the next two years, whereas replacing Gudas after this year was an unknown, even with all the cheap youth available).
I disagree, Trouba is very good, is two years younger than Ghost, is better defensively and a better fit for the Flyers as a right handed shot to pair with Provorov. Would I rather sign Karlsson and keep Ghost, yeah, but that would really challenge the salary cap and I don't think Karlsson would come here anyway.
Trouba is very good, but reports are he wants to be paid like a #1 D-man, not a first pair D-man, which would be a sizeable overpay (he's not a top defenseman, and after six years, probably will never be).
Ghost has four cost controlled years left on his deal, is as good defensively and better offensively than Trouba, but his size limits his usage, will always struggle with the physical aspects of the game, so you have to shelter him to some extent. Trouba can play the big minutes.
If the contracts were equivalent, a Ghost for Trouba trade would be a good way to balance the pairs.
But the contracts aren't close to equal.
If you look at the Niskanen deal, he is getting exactly what MacDonald was scheduled to get, so that's a cap neutral deal, so with the buyout of MacDonald and shedding 70% of Gudas' salary, they actually gain about 2 million in cap space. If you exchange Ghosts $4.5 mil per deal and get Trouba and $7 mil per, you'd be paying about the same for your defense as you did last year.
The Flyers retain 30% of Gudas cap hit for 2019, so 30% of $3.35M is $1M for 2019. Niskanen has a cap hit of $5.75M for each of the next 2 years. MacDonald's cap hit for 2019 would have been $5M but if he goes unclaimed we can buy him out at $3,833,333 and spread over 2 years at $1,916,667 for each of the next 2 years. That is $8.7M with the trade and less if we just kept MacDonald and Niskanen or even more if we had Kiskanen and bought out MacDonald.
Help me out please, where is the cap savings here?
All to get a player that is rated lower, is older and is in decline. This may go down as one of the dumbest deals I have seen lately, we got seriously "took".
No, I think Niskanen can help our defense. I think Gudas made too many mistakes and committed dumb penalties.
I think this is just one small part of the bigger picture.
Just for next season, Niskanen will make 750,000 more than MacDonald was on the books for, but they also shed 2.3 mil of Gudas' salary, but with what the MacDonald buyout cost, it breaks out about even, so you basically traded Gudas and MacDonald for Niskanen, who is a vast improvement over Gudas. I think others are seeing Gudas though orange and black tinted glasses.