The Ended Flyers Thread

[Austinfan]

The Caps needed cap relief, Flyers needed an experienced RHD who could be a mentor to their young defensemen.

I loved Gudas, but he was limited athletically, and wasn't the mentor type, tough, very efficient but you couldn't leave him on an island against a top forward - just go back to the Pens playoff series.

Niskanen is on the decline, even he admits that, but is still a top 4 who has played the tough minutes in five straight playoff series against the opponents' best scorers. He'll be a great on ice coach for a D-corp with lots of young and talent.

[xogfog]

They need to trade for Trouba, maybe they could put a package around Ghost, and their 1st and 3rd round picks (they have 2). That would make the pairings Provarov/Trouba, Sanheim/Myers, Hagg/Niskanen.

[Austinfan]

NO. Trouba just isn't that good, he wants to be paid like a #1 defenseman, whereas he's a middle of the road 1st pair guy - has never received a single Norris vote, his metrics say he's good but not great offensively and average defensively, and his PP scoring has less value for a Flyers team with Ghost, one of the best PP QBs in the league, and Sanheim, a budding offensive star.

Trouba as a one year rental is worth no more than the 2020 1st rd pick (top ten protected), just look at the Harmonic and Hamilton trades, both players were cost controlled (Harmonic with 3 cheap years and Hamilton with 4 RFA years left).

No different than baseball, with guaranteed contracts and a hard salary cap, you can't afford to overpay for talent and remain competitive.

[xogfog]

The Flyers waive MacDonald for the purpose of terminating his contract. The move will cost them $3,833,333 ($1,916,667 a year over the next two years). He was scheduled to make $5,750.000 next season.

[zambonir]

I think it's a perfectly fine gamble on Niskanen, that he has some bounce-back, and improves based on role/usage. I assume the MacDonald move was somewhat related too (in that Niskanen gives them cost certainty for the next two years, whereas replacing Gudas after this year was an unknown, even with all the cheap youth available).

[kmc1019]

If anything, the MacDonald move was long overdue. One of the last of the albatross contracts that previous regimes had saddled the franchise. Not a terrible player, just nowhere near worth the contract.

[xogfog]

I disagree, Trouba is very good, is two years younger than Ghost, is better defensively and a better fit for the Flyers as a right handed shot to pair with Provorov. Would I rather sign Karlsson and keep Ghost, yeah, but that would really challenge the salary cap and I don't think Karlsson would come here anyway.

[Austinfan]

Trouba is very good, but reports are he wants to be paid like a #1 D-man, not a first pair D-man, which would be a sizeable overpay (he's not a top defenseman, and after six years, probably will never be).

Ghost has four cost controlled years left on his deal, is as good defensively and better offensively than Trouba, but his size limits his usage, will always struggle with the physical aspects of the game, so you have to shelter him to some extent. Trouba can play the big minutes.

If the contracts were equivalent, a Ghost for Trouba trade would be a good way to balance the pairs.
But the contracts aren't close to equal.

[xogfog]

If you look at the Niskanen deal, he is getting exactly what MacDonald was scheduled to get, so that's a cap neutral deal, so with the buyout of MacDonald and shedding 70% of Gudas' salary, they actually gain about 2 million in cap space. If you exchange Ghosts $4.5 mil per deal and get Trouba and $7 mil per, you'd be paying about the same for your defense as you did last year.

[flyers19rw]

i think that Trouba has a higher number than $7M in mind

[Florida_Sunshine]

The Flyers retain 30% of Gudas cap hit for 2019, so 30% of $3.35M is $1M for 2019. Niskanen has a cap hit of $5.75M for each of the next 2 years. MacDonald's cap hit for 2019 would have been $5M but if he goes unclaimed we can buy him out at $3,833,333 and spread over 2 years at $1,916,667 for each of the next 2 years. That is $8.7M with the trade and less if we just kept MacDonald and Niskanen or even more if we had Kiskanen and bought out MacDonald.

Help me out please, where is the cap savings here?

[bkeich]

The Flyers retain 30% of Gudas cap hit for 2019, so 30% of $3.35M is $1M for 2019. Niskanen has a cap hit of $5.75M for each of the next 2 years. MacDonald's cap hit for 2019 would have been $5M but if he goes unclaimed we can buy him out at $3,833,333 and spread over 2 years at $1,916,667 for each of the next 2 years. That is $8.7M with the trade and less if we just kept MacDonald and Niskanen or even more if we had Kiskanen and bought out MacDonald.

Help me out please, where is the cap savings here?

All to get a player that is rated lower, is older and is in decline. This may go down as one of the dumbest deals I have seen lately, we got seriously "took".

[Florida_Sunshine]

No, I think Niskanen can help our defense. I think Gudas made too many mistakes and committed dumb penalties.

I think this is just one small part of the bigger picture.

[xogfog]

Just for next season, Niskanen will make 750,000 more than MacDonald was on the books for, but they also shed 2.3 mil of Gudas' salary, but with what the MacDonald buyout cost, it breaks out about even, so you basically traded Gudas and MacDonald for Niskanen, who is a vast improvement over Gudas. I think others are seeing Gudas though orange and black tinted glasses.

[zambonir]

Yeah I don't think it's a cap savings but I do think it allowed them to plan a little more for '20-21. Already not too early to start making decisions for the expansion draft not that this directly affects that but the overall defensive mix will be a consideration going into next season.

[xogfog]

Also consider, Gudas is a UFA next year, Niskanen is signed for the next 2. That lines up more with the defense prospects in the pipeline arrival time.

[xogfog]

Well, Karlsson re-ups with the Sharks for 8 years, so if the Flyers want a top line, right handed defenseman, they will need to trade for one.

[xogfog]

And there goes Trouba, the Rangers stole him for practically nothing, pick 20 and and undrafted second year defenseman (Neal Pionk). Based on that return, I have to think the Flyers were not in the picture.

[bigegypt0417]

I think you're underselling Pionk. He's a pretty good D-man who is still very young and cheap.

I think he's the centerpiece of that trade.

[Squire]

My understanding is that Trouba expressly indicated that he pretty much only wanted to go to the NYR. Which means he would have been a rental for the Flyers and gave the NYR alot of leverage in their offer to WPG.