The 2024 Philadelphia Phillies Draft Picks, UDFAs, and Signings

[fish]

Another UDFA: RHP Sam Highfill, NC State

Another grad student. He had a good sophomore year and pitched some big games before his junior and senior years were derailed by injuries. Low 90s fastball but lively like Nola but seems to pitch off his 4 seamer. Real good looking change up. Interesting guy to watch if he can stay healthy.

[Austinfan]

No cost gamble that he gets healthy, has a starter's repertoire and can add a little to his FB as he's further away from back issues.

[andyb]

Of course every UDFA is a no (really low) cost gamble. The question is whether they are good enough to hold down one of 165 organizational roster spots. Lots of these UDFAs probably will get a year and a half max to show they are worth it. The cost of holding down a roster spot with marginal tools is very real.

[julio]

Of course every UDFA is a no (really low) cost gamble. The question is whether they are good enough to hold down one of 165 organizational roster spots. Lots of these UDFAs probably will get a year and a half max to show they are worth it. The cost of holding down a roster spot with marginal tools is very real.

The cost of a roster spot used to evaluate a UDFA is theoretically real. Practicably, I won't get concerned about signing UDFAs until we see the Phillies forced to release minor leaguers who are actually prospects - who subsequently sign with other organizations and become above-replacement-level major-leaguers. To my knowledge, we're not at that point yet (and maybe never will be?).

[Austinfan]

I could probably go through their 165 spots and identify 50 players with zero chance of getting to AAA, much less the Show. A lot of contract slots go to older players to fill out rosters to support "real" prospects. Then every draft you replace 20-30 of these players with later picks and UDFAs. And of course LA players who graduate from the DSL.

Outside of the top 30-40 prospects, everyone is a long shot, question is who are the best bets?
Overage players who flashed talent like Kennedy? Pitchers coming off injuries? College starters moving to the pen? Late maturing LA players?

The philosophy seems to be load AAA with AAAA types and promising prospects who were stalled elsewhere.
Take chances on long-shot college pitchers, but not so much college position players.
You see a lot more older pitchers at Clearwater and JS than older hitters. Think b/c it's easier to tweak a pitcher (mechanics, a new grip/new pitch) than teach a marginal hitter - if you can't hit a curve/slider, doubt it can be taught.
Cycle through LA players, b/c of short shelf life (eligibility for Rule 5 at 23-24 years old).

So adding a few UDFA college pitchers, start them in low A and see if you can "fix them," is no different than sticking with a LA player who is struggling in A+ ball.

[allentown]

Cycle through LA players, b/c of short shelf life (eligibility for Rule 5 at 23-24 years old).

So adding a few UDFA college pitchers, start them in low A and see if you can "fix them," is no different than sticking with a LA player who is struggling in A+ ball.

True, but I remain perplexed and not pleased that the Phillies seem to have adopted your preferred method of only signing amateur pitchers on the super-cheap by the couple dozen and winnowing them swiftly. This means we are signing the guys that other teams didn't value, while they have signed quite a few pitchers whom they, and most of baseball, value more than the guys we've brought in for a relatively quick audition. I don't doubt that the team can find middle relievers and a #5 starter that way, but you won't get the next Hamels or Nola. I also realize that H.S. and young LA pitchers are risky signs, but in Phillies' history, no position has been riskier for big $ commitment than CF, whether in the draft or in LA. We do better with pitchers at primo slots, better with IFs, better with catchers, even some success at corner OF. But CF? Hasn't happened, apart from Bourn, whom we traded.

CFs with the first two picks in the draft? I'm still disappointed.

[andyb]

The point is it is not some miraculous "value" strategy the Phillies are doing here like you imply. Every team does it. They only can afford to do it for a handful of players every year because there is no room any more. Most likely 98% of the value in our draft is in the top 10 players we drafted. You seem to pay unwarranted attention and praise to the 2% that rarely matters when the Phillies' strategy there is really no different than anyone else's.

[Squire]

We’re not waiting until a home series to announce signing guys are we?

[julio]

We’re not waiting until a home series to announce signing guys are we?

I'm beginning to wonder, Squire. The club's not home until the end of the week - off to Minnesota now.

I would like to think that, even if the Phillies put off issuing a press release (historically, we might expect that on Tuesday?), the relevant baseball writers (Callis, Mayo, Collazzo) will get ahold of some bonus amounts prior to that. They've been reporting lots of bonuse for other clubs's signees... but the Phils always bring up the rear on things like this.

[zambonir]

I would imagine that's exactly what they are doing. Maybe it leaks out Tuesday but no press conference before Thurs or Fri

[Austinfan]

Your ability to find and develop that 2% is what allows successful clubs to sustain success.
The back of your bullpen, your bench, your 4th to 6th starters, your 7th and 8th best position players.

Fill those spots with 2%ers and you don't pay Merrifield $8M or Walker $18M and that's enough money saved to sign a solid starter.

Finding value at the margin is one of the keys to winning.

[allentown]

While the team should be able to develop its own bench and middle relief, Merrifield was simply an awful signing. They had better guys in AAA this year than Merrifield.

[julio]

We’re not waiting until a home series to announce signing guys are we?

I'm beginning to wonder, Squire. The club's not home until the end of the week - off to Minnesota now.

I went back and checked last year's thread. The first report we had of a Phils' bonus amount (Jim Callis tweet, Jake Eddington was the signee) was on the Monday of the week following the draft - so notwithstanding how much it feels like it's been longer, we're not (yet) behind last year's pace.

[andyb]

Your ability to find and develop that 2% is what allows successful clubs to sustain success.

No. No. No. The ability to be productive with the top picks (i.e. the 98%) is by far more important. Finding a gem in a late round pick or UDFA is merely a bonus and rarely do they amount to even a single WAR.

[jimbomill]

or Walker $18M

Walker WAS supposed to be that solid starter. All clubs get it wrong sometimes - not sure where DD stands in this area of his GM duties.

[Squire]

Per Matt Winkelman on Twitter, the Phillies starting to clear some roster spots. Have released Dakota Kotowski, Eury Ramos and AJ Shaver.

[julio]

First signing news!

Phillies have agreement to sign second-round draft pick OF Griffin Burkholder. Agreement is for $2.5 million, well above $1.35 million slot for 63rd overall pick. Deal is pending a physical. Burkholder had commitment to West Virginia U.

— Jim Salisbury ( @JimSalisbury215 ) July 22, 2024

[allentown]

That seems a very large bonus for Burkholder. Hopefully it comes from Nori under slot.

[Squire]

I am firm believer that we don't take guys without a deal in place. So I'm confident that we're signing the entire class.

[andyb]

That seems a very large bonus for Burkholder. Hopefully it comes from Nori under slot.

The 2 guys were rated near each other so I think that is very likely. We also did not really take anyone else who will require dramatically more than slot, so getting Nori for around $3 million would be about right. They have the extra 5% to play with and not really many options to give that money to.