The 2018 Rule 5 Draft

[LoneStarPhan]

If no team would take Bour on waivers and take his existing contract status (arbitration eligible), would he expect to get a better contract by opting for free agency? It would seem unlikely. Maybe the Phillies are holding on to Bour in the hope that he will accept being outrighted. I admit that I don't fully understand all the ramifications of this situation, but I guess there is something in the works.

[julio]

A possible fit may be a trade of Bour back to the fish for Derek Dietrich who they just designated for assignment. Dietrich kind of fits our profile, a decent left handed bat who plays multiple positions and none of them all that well. Bet the fish should do it if we ate some of Bour’s salary.

I suppose the Phillies could simply pay somebody like the Marlins to take Bour. Bour's not technically under contract for 2019 at this point; the Phillies control his rights - have the option of offering him a contract (and entering salary arbitration) or not. But trade those rights, plus a couple of $million, for Derek Dietrich?

If Dietrich has been DFA, he'll be on waivers within a couple of days (unless the Marlins arrange a trade); the Phils could just file a claim on him, if they want him.

[Squire]

The more that I thought about it, it strikes me that hiding a back-up catcher on your 25 roster may be the hardest thing to do so I am ok with not protecting Grullon. I'll be bummed if we lose Pujols though because I really value power.

I don't think Bour has any value at all. The Rays just DFA'd C.J. Cron who hit 30 HRs for them last year as a 1B.

[julio]

If no team would take Bour on waivers and take his existing contract status (arbitration eligible), would he expect to get a better contract by opting for free agency?

You never know what an organization may do at some point if they perceive a need, but I think the implication of Bour's clearing outright waivers (as reported) is that no club is interested in going to arbitration with him. If he is outrighted, and elects free agency, he could (likely) come to some agreement with some club - but I would think for a lesser salary than would be permitted if he's not a free agent. He might just get a minor-league offer with a spring training invitation, for example.

I think Squire's got it, though; one-dimensional 1B who have some power, but bring nothing much else to the table, just don't have much value.

[andyb]

This is so many words on Bour to obscure the fact that he has no role on this team, and likely little trade value at his expected arbitration contract. They will move on from Bour either way and it is unlikely we get anything for him since another team can theoretically do better on his contract. We got Bour as a pinch hitter to use mainly when rosters are expanded. He has no role when rosters are not expanded and like many one-dimensional hitters really needs to go to the DH league. It really does not matter when he is released since they have room on the 40 now. He'll be gone once they sign a free agent or two.

On the rule 5, I think Grullon is the biggest risk. If scouts think his defense is major league ready some team that needs a backup can theoretically draft him. The offensive bar for a backup catcher is pretty low. Was a little surprised by protecting Gamboa but he does have major league tools and his offense will probably pick up in Reading. Leftwich is middle reliever that throws in the 92-94 range typically so really not worried about him being drafted (or if he was lost). Garcia was the reliever with some decent ceiling. Imagine they will position him for a midseason call-up ideally since they really like to use all their relievers on the 40-man roster.

[xogfog]

Gamboa but he does have major league tools and his offense will probably pick up in Reading.

I think this is a major problem with the Phillies organization. Everyone loves the park in Reading, it's a great park, but it is such an unrealistic band box, it distorts offensive output so much that I think everyone, including the front office, gets sucked into thinking that a player is making more progress there than they really are. How many players in the Phillies organization have killed it in Reading and then fizzled out to non-prospect status. I think Reading is really a problem for the Phillies organization. It would probably be untenable to break the affiliation, but maybe then can dumb down the park effects somehow (humidor?). Sure it's exciting to see guys hit 40 homers in Reading, but I'd rather see them hit 25 real homers and have that power translate to AAA and above than get sucked in to thinking Darrin Ruff and Dylan Cozens are the next great power hitters in Phillies history...

[julio]

I think this is a major problem with the Phillies organization. Everyone loves the park in Reading, it's a great park, but it is such an unrealistic band box, it distorts offensive output so much that I think everyone, including the front office, gets sucked into thinking that a player is making more progress there than they really are. How many players in the Phillies organization have killed it in Reading and then fizzled out to non-prospect status. I think Reading is really a problem for the Phillies organization.

How many "Reading wonders" has the front office fallen in love with? As opposed to how many "Reading wonders" the fan base (as evidenced by online comment here and elsewhere) fallen in love with - and dissed the front office for not immediately promoting?

I certainly agree that some fans get deluded by Reading HR stats. But fans don't need to allow themselves to be sucked in. A fan can look at the road stats of Reading hitters, for example. You're suggesting that Reading's park needs to be changed, so that fans won't delude themselves? My guess is that fans who are subject to self-delusion will find a way.

[xogfog]

Well wether or not the statistical distortions of Reading fool the front office in addition to the fan base, another concern is that it might promote bad hitting habits and set them up for future failure in AAA causing regression in their prospect path.

[julio]

Well wether or not the statistical distortions of Reading fool the front office in addition to the fan base, another concern is that it might promote bad hitting habits and set them up for future failure in AAA causing regression in their prospect path.

It might. We should be able to see if that happens, by looking at hitting prospects at Clearwater, and then at Lehigh Valley.

To comment only on Dylan Cozens - he tended to swing hard and often, and strike out too much, at pretty much every level; I mean, he struck out in 25% of his ABs in the Australian League! His K% grew at AA and AAA, but I'm not so sure that's a result of his acquiring bad habits at Reading as confronting better pitching, which exacerbated his historically poor approach. Falling in love with Cozens as a hitter is/was a bad idea...and that's not just hindsight; there was lots of concern expressed at philliesphans, for instance, about his real potential as he advanced levels in the system.

[zambonir]

The Phillies have been the majority owner of Reading since 2008 so the affiliation is certainly not going anywhere (though that also would be true given the long history, the regional convenience and their close partnership with Craig Stein).

And nobody's saying Ryan Howard or Rhys Hoskins was a "Reading wonder," right?

[Austinfan]

Actually, I'd worry about pitchers as much as hitters, I think Lakewood has been kept "dead" to encourage young pitchers to throw inside, whereas Reading punishes pitchers for mistakes. Lakewood also encourages hitters to focus on contact rather than trying to hit dingers.

There is something to be said for below average parks in A ball, but AA should be closer to neutral, and no park should be an outlier. You want players to play the same way at each level, and get rewarded for doing things right, not adjusting to different parks and distorting their swing/pitching mechanics.

[zambonir]

The value the Phillies get out of having consistent, geographically friendly affiliates is more important than anything else I'd think (and I mean the baseball value not the marketing value, though that obviously counts too). The Mets just moved their AAA team from Las Vegas to Buffalo. The Nats are moving theirs from Buffalo to Fresno as a result. The Rangers just lost their Texas AAA team (which used to be the Astros, and was also the Astros' AA team, and now is the Astros again) and are heading to Nashville. Controlling park factors, let alone having them the same at every level, would be a huge luxury.

And they still play half their games on the road. It's up to the baseball operations staff and coaches to manage these things (and factor them in) and have a consistent approach throughout the season, home and road. Ultimately the players who didn't make it probably weren't going to make it regardless. Seems to me a lot of the "Reading wonders" still did pretty well at AAA too. They just weren't big-leaguers.

[andyb]

The Phillies probably don't really care that much that Lakewood is an extreme pitcher's park and Reading is the opposite. They have plenty of road games to also evaluate players and they have enough first hand knowledge of the players to know what is real and what is not. The perception of fans (or us) is really not important to the Phillies.

I only remarked that Gamboa's stats would look better in Reading because so far he has been pushed age-wise to levels he can't dominate coupled with pitchers' parks. I actually don't think he'll get helped much by Reading. He'll hit 10 HRs instead of 5. And a 700 OPS with a high walk rate is probably the best we should expect of him next year.

That would be pretty good for a 21-year-old though and better than what Canelo put up as a 22 and 23 year old there. The Phillies believe in his raw talent enough to protect him even though he also seems to have underperformed a bit this past year. Middle relievers are a dime a dozen. Middle infielders that can play a decent SS are much more valuable.

[tom81]

Dietrich kind of fits our profile, a decent left handed bat who plays multiple positions and none of them all that well.

The phans would love Derek Dietrich! I wasn't aware of this until today but he has the highest career HBP rates since the turn of the last century, if you if you set the minimum at 1,500 PA. His rate is 4.36% which is significantly higher than Chase Utley's 2.98%.

Derek Dietrich: All-Time Leader | FanGraphs Baseball

[julio]

Per Jim Peyton at PhuturePhillies, the Phils appear to have only seven players at risk in the AAA (minor-league) portion of the Rule 5 draft:

Catcher:
Nerluis Martinez

Infielders:
Ali Castillo (recently signed)
Harold Garcia (DNP in 2018, but coached)
Kyle Martin
Emmanuel Marrero
Edwin Rodriguez
Drew Stankiewicz

I don't know anything about Castillo, but I don't expect any of the other six to have a major-league career; at most, a cuppa.

[Squire]

BA Rule 5 Preview now lists 40 names and not one of them is a Phillie. So that's good I guess. Or bad depending on how you look at it.

[Squire]

Apparently the three names being mentioned the most for tomorrow's Rule 5 draft are (former Phillie) Sam McWilliams, SS (Tampa) Richie Martin (Oakland) and RHP Riley Ferrell (Houston)

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Drew Jackson is the newest Phillie!! Impressive tools, can play all over the field.
I like it!! L.A.'s #19 Prospect.

Drew Jackson Minor & Fall Leagues Statistics & History | Baseball-Reference.com

[Squire]

Phillies selected SS Drew Jackson out of the Dodgers system and lost nobody in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Cheers. We did it

[Squire]

Gelb says we’re about to trade the pick. My guess is he means for International allocation money or straight cash money