Reserve System/ Player Salaries (non-Phillies discussion)

[Austinfan]

Simply go to the NFL system, where teams that lose FAs get picks, but teams that sign them only lose potential compensation for FAs they lose (that is, you only get compensated if you have a net loss).

[jimbomill]

If the Phillies really thought they were in grave danger of losing one of these guys or are falling behind Atlanta, DC or NY they'd do something about it

I think that's key.
Agents are probably using that "grave danger" approach to the Phillies brass in hopes of upping the offer.
I am not sure if the system is broken because the headliners haven't signed. They can sit back confidently knowing they'll be drawing a handsome paycheck come the start of the season, so why not play range-chicken with the various teams to see who ups their offer? For those players, there is no stress. They are using the system as designed.

[andyb]

You mean asking for no QO. Which Pollock probably should have just taken

Pollack is a year younger and has been worth 5.5 WAR the last 2 years as opposed to 5.2% for McCutchen. Even while only playing 80% of the time. He also can play CF so he has more future defensive value.

Maybe he should have taken 1 year and $18 million under the current rules. Those rules are wrong though because you are saying he should take $18 million instead of $50 million even though he is younger and slightly better.

Why are there QOs in the first place? They depress free agent value. They don't really help the poorer teams because they can afford to offer the QO less often. Just give teams a pick when they lose a free agent. I just see zero reason why we should make Pollack take less money than McCutchen because he was good enough to merit the QO and McCutchen wasn't. What is the benefit to baseball other than depressing free agent value?

[andyb]

That is better than the baseball system (though I still don't like how the NFL system gets gamed by some teams like the Patriots). With the NFL they all have the same hard cap. There really should be no compensation at all because they all have the same ability to sign other free agents when you lose your own.

Baseball is a little different because of the revenue imbalance. Give the comp picks if teams sign a free agent for more than $50 million. Make it after the 1st round if more than $100 million. After the second round in the $50 to $100 range. No lost picks. Maybe a little more revenue sharing to help the smaller clubs, but that is a different issue.

[allentown]

I don't think the constipation of the FA market is really about the comp picks. A lot of the FAs who are unsigned, notably including Manny, can be signed without surrendering a pick. This is all gamesmanship and how the agents vs the teams' analytical guys calculate value. The solution is to increase the compensation for the younger players: arb a year earlier, guidelines for arb awards set at higher percentage of actual value. A guy with Nola's tenure ought to be getting roughly $1 million/rWAR not the ridiculous value the Phillies analytical formula spat out. That's where the problem lies.

Really, I'm not going to cry if Manny ends up with $250 mill than $350 mill and Harper finds he can't do better than $300 million. Those are both hellaciously big contracts. It's the very productive young guys who are being shafted. The new analytics is also screwing young pitchers who are given a start, then sent back to minors, then brought up again for another start, etc. The minimum for minor leaguers on 40-man and at each level also needs to rise. That's where the real pain and inequity lies.

[zambonir]

Comp picks are one of the things that go into the value calculation. If McCutchen had one his deal might have been different (or maybe if Pollock didn't have one he'd be a Phillie, though it seems our front office was pretty enamored with McCutchen's leadership and Santana-like offensive profile.)

And of course comp picks are only meant to hurt free agency. I don't think they really end up helping small market teams. They only punish the players and the signing teams. You could just as easily give those picks to the teams that lose FAs w/o signing teams giving up anything. But why should big-market teams even get them? The very existence of QOs and comp picks means there isn't really "unrestricted" free agency.

[allentown]

I suspect the Phillies would have signed him anyway. We surrendered two draft picks last season. We are hot after Harper, so in reality Pollack would cost a 3, if we succeed in the Harper chase.

[zambonir]

Well, the Phillies were never going to sign both Pollock and Harper (though it's moot now). Up to this point they chose McCutchen over Pollock. And may yet choose Manny over Harper.

But again, why should a luxury tax team, the Nats, even get compensation for losing Harper, and why should his movement be restricted at all? But 'dem's da rules.

[zambonir]

Good link from Matt Gelb today

Where Have All The Big Spenders Gone?

Giving the owners the benefit of the doubt, they may just be coming to their senses after years of rash spending. Lee MacPhail, retiring in a few weeks as the chairman of the Player Relations Committee, sent a five-page, parting-shot letter to each of the owners on Oct. 16. He pointed out, among other things, that close to $50 million is being paid out to players no longer performing, that players on long-term contracts spend more time on the disabled list, and that performance progressively falls off in each year of a multiyear pact. "I just told them what I've been telling them all along, that they were crazy and running themselves into bankruptcy," says MacPhail. It also has not gone unnoticed that the more successful clubs in recent years have not resorted to signing free agents.

[Austinfan]

That's the impact of analytics, practically every team has a kid analyzing those long-term contracts, telling the GM the probability that a player will produce "X" WAR 3 and 4 years from now, reducing the temptation to overspend on long-term deals. So teams are no longer being driven by overconfidence now that they have hard data about expected performance.

[Philsmania]

Good link from Matt Gelb today

Where Have All The Big Spenders Gone?

Giving the owners the benefit of the doubt, they may just be coming to their senses after years of rash spending. Lee MacPhail, retiring in a few weeks as the chairman of the Player Relations Committee, sent a five-page, parting-shot letter to each of the owners on Oct. 16. He pointed out, among other things, that close to $50 million is being paid out to players no longer performing, that players on long-term contracts spend more time on the disabled list, and that performance progressively falls off in each year of a multiyear pact. "I just told them what I've been telling them all along, that they were crazy and running themselves into bankruptcy," says MacPhail. It also has not gone unnoticed that the more successful clubs in recent years have not resorted to signing free agents.

That article was posted back when collusion really was going on. Now, it's the analytics age.

Baseball's grand bargain--keep the reserve clause in effect for a player's first six years (mitigated by the availability of arbitration for the last three of those years) while players were probably overpaid during their veteran years to make up for when they were underpaid when they were younger--is now obsolete and a new paradigm is needed.

[zambonir]

I just thought it was funny that our president's father was quoted, not that it hasn't previously been pointed out that he represents old-guard TPTB.

[allentown]

An old Phillies tradition. That's how Bill Giles became the managing partner who put together the ownership team. The Phillies have consistently been one of the staunchest supporters of any commissioner's efforts to hold the line on salaries or signing bonuses. Throughout the years, soft, or even suggested, caps have always been taken as gospel to be followed 100% by the Phillies organization.

[zambonir]

Seems like these days that's every owner. Even the ones who have exceeded the tax are holding the line, talking about budgets and cost control. Part of analytics but also part of the march to 2021 I suspect.

[baseballoldie]

Three recent hires by MLBPA gives insight to how the players are gearing up:

Bruce Meyer - sports litigation expert - http://www.mlbplayers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=1113083&SPID=181325&DB_OEM_ID=34000&ATCLID=211769538

Xavier James - COO with legal background - http://www.mlbplayers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=1113083&SPID=181325&DB_OEM_ID=34000&ATCLID=211770630

Jerry Crasnick - Senior Advisor, Player, Agent, Media relations - http://www.mlbplayers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=1113083&SPID=181325&DB_OEM_ID=34000&ATCLID=211787698

Could we see a player strike before the next CBA period given the declining share of revenues going to players? We definitely are going to see more public relation communications coming from the players association regarding the current status of player compensation.

[zambonir]

I think it's really cool that Crasnick got that job but will miss his often Philly-centric coverage. Seems like, having not joined The Athletic, there was nowhere else to go (maybe MLB.com, ironically. I think the writers there do a good job of being objective but hoo boy, that is not going to be a good look either if there's a labor dispute. Of course rights-holders (ESPN, Fox) also tend to favor the league.

[zambonir]

Interesting sidenote from Rosenthal. Nola of course, did not do this, so if there were a full-season strike in 2012 he'd lose as much money then as he's making in 2019 and 2020 combined.

Ken Rosenthal (Ken_Rosenthal)

[baseballoldie]

wonder if we will see that pushing of money forward in 19.20 & 21 in Harper and Machado's contracts?

[Florida_Sunshine]

I suspect very likely with MM and Harper but not for everyone. Although all agents may try for it, owners would be foolish to do it to the extent it lowers their ROI too drastically.

[zambonir]

With Harper and Machado their first opt-outs will probably be for 2021 or 2022 (remember, JD Martinez and Arrieta's opt-outs are both Year 2). So they may lose money in 2021 if there is a strike but they could also take free agency in the new CBA if it made sense (though I would think it won't).

It's possible the structure and the opt-outs are the real reason things are still moving slowly, not the total years/value.