Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[zambonir]

Agreed, I don't think Law is making a prediction, that's just opinion and he doesn't have to worry about the logistics or politics of actually doing it. But he's also either being passive-aggressive or literally doesn't realize MIller will probably play more 3B than anything in AAA this year.

But, the part where he believes the bat will by ready by July 1 is really the most germane thing.

[Austinfan]

Hah. I'm not the only one who likes Nori.

[andyb]

I'm not the only one who likes Nori.

You are the only one that overrates him. I like him. He just has a lot to prove before he can be penciled in for any sort of role. We have a huge dropoff in talent in the back half of our top 10. Nori would rank 11-15 in many organizations.

[andyb]

the part where he believes the bat will by ready by July 1 is really the most germane thing

He had that comment in the previous top 100 article. He is definitely the type of polished bat with pretty good control of the strike zone that might only need 50 or so games in AAA. This is also a pet peeve of Law that he would move Turner off of SS immediately and that sort of move of a veteran rarely happens in midseason. Millionaire clubhouses are tricky things to manage.

That really leaves the Miller 2026 scenarios as being an injury replacement whereever that might occur. They might even stick him in LF if that platoon does not work or Marsh needs to play more CF or RF. I suppose they could bring him up as a supersub in the second half too (as in a Kemp that can actually play defense), though getting him 4-5 starts a week in that role might be challenging.

[zambonir]

If Bohm is having a terrific season and that keeps Miller in AAA or on the bench, hardly a tragedy. But if Bohm is having a terrific season you could also trade him.

And if he's only having an average season and Miller is forcing the issue, you trade Bohm for whatever (or as part of your overall series of deadline moves for the inevitable pitching depth or OF help). Harder to fit Miller into the OF unless Adolis is a bust.

IMO it will be more interesting to see if they bring him up immediately in the event of an injury to any of the IFs (including Harper, since Kemp and Bohm can both play 1B) versus going with a Moore or Cairo.

[phillychuck]

Hah. I'm not the only one who likes Nori.

I’m also on the Nori train. But I suspect a lot of my enthusiasm is wishful thinking or selective perception.

[Austinfan]

Nah. It's simple, if he's a plus fielding CF, .700 OPS is a 3 WAR player.
That is, Nori doesn't have to be a great hitter to have real value.
He doesn't have the upside of Crawford (if he levels his swing, fills out and is a .150 ISO guy/.800 OPS CF).
But he's moved up rapidly, he'll start in Reading at 22.
They're fixing his swing mechanics, basically teaching him to use his hips to generate power instead of standing there and just hitting with his wrists and arms.
He makes contact, has good plate discipline, add some pop and you have a .700+ hitter.

He's basically insurance (along with Rojas) for Crawford.
If Crawford becomes a star in CF, Nori will probably be traded, if Crawford struggles with fielding, Nori might be the future CF with Crawford moving to LF.

[andyb]

Nori is a decent prospect but let's not go too far. We don't know if he is capable of even a 700 OPS. His fielding is more good than great (probably closer to Marsh than Rojas). And he has 16 games above low A so probably will start back at Clearwater this year. We just don't know if he has any power and the whole strike zone judgement will be tested at higher levels.

He is a good prospect, but really not more than that at this time. And he is more of a high floor prospect than having any sort of ceiling. I hope he does well this year and in the future. It is just hard to pencil him in for any role now in the future.

[zambonir]

Still, it's nice to see this from someone like Law rather than AF or a Phillies employee.

He’s a 60 runner and plus defender in center field, and if he’s even hitting 10 homers a year with enough hard contact to keep his average up, he’s going to be a very good regular, probably the kind of leadoff hitter the Phillies have lacked for years.

[andyb]

Down On The Farm likes Crawford.

Shortstops, Sluggers, and Speedsters: The Key NL East Prospects to Watch in 2026

[andyb]

One more I missed a couple of weeks ago:

Philadelphia Phillies Top 34 Prospects

[allentown]

They list FV for Crawford as only 45+. The strangest part is listing a 2026 ETA for Gage.

[andyb]

There was talk of Wood being fast tracked in relief last year so a 2026 OTA is not outlandish. Of course if they develop him purely as a starter they will likely need more time. Right now his pitch arsenal is much more 2-pitch reliever than starter.

[phillychuck]

Down On The Farm likes Crawford.

I love these guys, but how can you write about the Phils’ system and not at least mention Painter?

[zambonir]

They don't seem to focus on pitchers. There's even a joke about it in the article. Just not their expertise? Philosophical choice (i.e. TNSAAPP)? Otherwise, is it an oversight, or a deliberate statement that they don't rate him?

[andyb]

It is not really meant to be a comprehensive list. And I think their writing sweet spot is when their system rates prospects higher than the other less analytical prospect lists. It is definitely more interesting reading where people have a unique perspective even if I have no clue how accurate they are historically.

[BostonRoss]

I still view Painter with a lot of caution. Even seeing him pitch and being amazed at his stuff (though he had command issues that day), I there have been an awful lot of top prospects who never amounted to much, often due to injuries, which Painter has already had. Here are some "can't miss" pitching prospects I remember: Mark Appel, Kyle Drabek, Todd Van Poppel, Mark Prior, Rick Ankiel, ...

[zambonir]

Any pitcher can get hurt any time. But I wouldn't say Prior was a miss. He broke, but had a career first. Appel was pretty much a bust before he even got to AA. I think Painter is more regarded for his stuff than Drabek was, though maybe not by much. He got through the hard part before the injury. Now comes the hardest part.

In 2011 Drabek was the BP #11 prospect for Toronto. Dom Brown was #4. Harper/Trout 1-2. Jeremy Hellickson 9.

[BostonRoss]

We don't know yet if Painter will break. I'd be thrilled if Painter became Strasburg though he eventually broke, too.

Of course, sometimes a top pitching prospect does fulfill his promise. Skenes, so far...

[allentown]

And, there were physical (and makeup) issues about Hamels when we chose him in the first round.