Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[zambonir]

Only 3 pitchers in the top 10 reinforces my belief that we must go after pitching this off-season.

But why this off-season? Other than Nola of course. Wait another year to sign or trade for another Taijuan Walker, depending on how Abel does and whether they re-sign Wheeler. Painter starts 2025 right where he started 2023 IMO (in the mix but can't count on him). McGarry's headed for the pen either way I reckon.

[andyb]

Not much more but the BA chat is here:

Philadelphia Phillies 2024 MLB Prospects Chat — College Baseball, MLB Draft,...

[Chris23]

Carlos de la Cruz falling as well.

[Squire]

2024 Phillies Top 10 Prospects Podcast — College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects...

Discussion on Andrew Painter, Mick Abel, Justin Crawford, Starlyn Caba among others

[fish]

Interesting (to me) nugget from the Hook Like and Splitter pod interview with Preston Mattingly was his response when asked "Who would win a race between Crawford, Boyd, and Fergus" he responded that they all ran the 30 within 1/10th of a second of each other, and added that Avery Owusu-Asiedu was faster than any of them.

[gmwannabe]

Not sure if I am putting this the correct thread but the Philly Inquirer has an article today about the Phils Dominican Academy. it mentions 7 players to watch. I can't get into seeing it. Anyone have any details?
gm

[xogfog]

The seven are:

Starlyn Caba
Eduardo Tait
Alexis De La Cruz
Nolan Beltran
Aroon Escobar
Wilmer Blanco
Angel Mata

[andyb]

Caba and Tait are sometimes ranked in the top 10 now. Escobar was Acuna's cousin. Think he had a disappointing second season last year. Beltran was always interesting to me as a taller shortstop who was pretty inexperienced coming in (from Colombia I believer).

Tait is the scouting success coming with a $90K bonus.

[andyb]

Fangraphs list out today. Only 26 prospects (they rank everyone over a certain value) so system depth has taken a hit. High ranks for Caba, Rincon, and Tait. Relatively low on Crawford. Another mention of MacFarlane TJ surgery unfortunately.

Philadelphia Phillies Top 26 Prospects

[Austinfan]

But he also had a long list of "maybe," basically saying that the future of this system depends on whether they can develop talent at the lower levels (DR, GCL, Clearwater) which they've not done a good job at in the past. Half of success is hitting on 1st rd picks and that one big money LA signing each year, the other half is finding hidden gems later in the draft and in LA. Phillies have improved in the top of the draft, maybe Caba means they'll stop wasting money in LA, but we probably won't know if they've improved in the "hidden gems" department until September.

Tait is a good sign, but they need to find and develop some cheap pitching for organizational depth. You need to find guys like SD every year or two, not once a decade.

[andyb]

Every list has a bunch of maybes and of course depends on how low level talent develops. Put that aside though and they rate 26 Phillies prospects at 35+ and above. The 2 other lists out had 31 and 36 and it is not uncommon for Fangraphs lists to have more than 40 prospects in an organization. The list concludes saying the organization is comfortably below-average. One of the reasons is the number of prospects we have traded (not huge but there have been more prospects going out than in) and the fact that we have lost draft picks for free agents. None of that makes the system better however.

The write-up on McGarry is really discouraging. It does seem like we are starting to lose many of our draft bets on big arms with control issues (MacFarlane, Baker, Pipkin). I don't necessarily disagree with that strategy. It is just risky even in the best of circumstances.

[Austinfan]

The other reason is the "strength" of a farm system is primarily the players a couple years from the majors. Phillies have been thin there for years, and traded a number of players in that pool. Outside of a few outliers, most players in low A and below add nothing to a system's perceived strength b/c it's too early to evaluate them. Phillies have focused on the bottom of the system the last couple years, shaking up scouting, adding developmental resources. Last year Clearwater had a great season. If progress is being made we should see improvement at Jersey Shore and continued above average play at Clearwater, if prospects develop.

One thing to watch going forward, as teams keep players in the DR longer due to roster limits, the quality of play in the DR should probably approach low A level, and the better DR players may start skipping the FCL and go straight to Clearwater.

[zambonir]

No reason to put "strength" in quotes. Or use "perceived." It's already all there in your own analysis: the Phillies don't have good prospects at the higher levels and it's too soon to tell if they do at the lower levels (or if the new regime is working). Thus, correct to not rank them highly.

[Squire]

Jim Callis Mailbag features comments on Aidan Miller. Needless to say....Jim Callis is a big Aidan Miller Fan.

Inbox: 2 prospects poised for rebound in '24; Leiter's future

[Austinfan]

Yeah, a little redundant. I think this is the year we start to see if the changes instituted by Manning bear fruit. At least they're scouting better, now the next step is being able to develop 2nd and 3rd tier prospects - can they fix mechanics, teach plate discipline, improve fielding, etc. There are limits, you can't turn an average athlete into a star - but that's also where scouting/development overlap, if you scout for upside instead of floor, a good development program will turn some into stars even if most stall out in Jersey Shore (expect a higher % of outright flops if you take a riskier scouting approach).

[phillychuck]

What is the evidence we are scouting better? We have no meaningful MLB results from the "new" scouting administration.

[zambonir]

I want to say that the Almaraz regime was so bad that it is at least clear the Barber regime has cleared that bar, but in reality three of the current starting nine - Stott, Bohm and, indirectly, Marsh (O'Hoppe) - came from those Almaraz drafts and it is indeed too soon to say anything serious is going to come of the 2020-2022 drafts (and they don't look as good on that Fangraphs write-up as they did to us even just a year ago).

[andyb]

The other reason is the "strength" of a farm system is primarily the players a couple years from the majors

But you are kind of saying their depth is a plus, when the number of good players (i.e. their depth) is also lower than most organizations.

[Austinfan]

No, I'm saying the strength of the system (as evidenced by the success in the DR and at Clearwater) is primarily in the lower levels where prospects are rarely rated highly (unless they're clearly heads and shoulders above their peers or high draft picks/bonus babies) b/c they have a limited track record. Whether these prospects will continue develop as they rise and if Manning's changes will continue this success at the lower levels remains to be seen.

Good example is O'Hoppe, no one took him seriously until his started performing at high A and AA.

[andyb]

No, I'm saying the strength of the system (as evidenced by the success in the DR and at Clearwater) is primarily in the lower levels where prospects are rarely rated highly (unless they're clearly heads and shoulders above their peers or high draft picks/bonus babies) b/c they have a limited track record.

But that is saying absolutely nothing. Is there any reason to believe the Phillies have more of these low level prospects than other organizations? No (and they have fewer ranked 35+ FV prospects than others so it is possible they have less lower level prospects). Is there any reason to think they have more prospects beyond those top 26 than other orgs. Again no. And how often do non-top 30 ish prospects actually make it? Hardly ever if you discount the cup of coffee guys.

So you are basically saying all the national prospect lists are wrong because of course the Phillies have more depth than other organizations in players too far away for the national rankings to notice them. And O'Hoppe was ranked 12th by Baseball America in 2019 after a year in the system so he did NOT come out of nowhere and even after the draft we knew he was an overslot bonus so he was one of the 10-15 guys in the draft to pay attention to.

There is just no reason to think the Phillies have an above average minor league system now or 2-3 years from now. The book is out on Barber still and we really have no idea if they have fixed their development issues. I hope they have. I just don't know that yet.