Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[andyb]

The grand finale.

Phillies 2023 Top Prospects – Painter 1

[allentown]

The grand finale.

Well, the finale of the top 50. I always enjoy reading his ranking and summaries, because he is a true amateur baseball expert and the person who focuses more upon all levels of the Phillies organization than anyone else I am able to read.

In terms of not the finale: I have read a fair amount about at least 20 of the guys on his top 50 and have seen some in person. The real finale which he has promised is a look at a broader swath of our players at the academy. I really have zip info on these guys and eagerly await that posting.

[andyb]

Forgot about the other player addendum. I definitely have a cursory knowledge of anyone down in the DSL where we are really looking at their age and stats and bonus for clues on who is a prospect. The future Jayden Estanista and Enrique Segura type prospects are really hard to guess without scouting reports and a little knowledge about their tools.

[RTaylor]

Painter's situation brings to mind Rick Wise, who debuted in 1964 at 18. It took a few years for Wise to develop, but he was certainly one of the Phils' most consequential prospects!

[allentown]

And he gave us Carlton.

[phillychuck]

When Cole Hamels was a prospect, he dominated the minors like no one before or since, even Painter. We were just starting the board back then (I think) and I remember each time he pitched being blown away by his boxscore lines and, honestly, the futility of minor league hitters trying to hit him. He went several full seasons without giving up a single HR. It was hard following him as a prospect when he was in the minors because he just was unable to pitch so often, and when he did, they kept shifting him around from level to level, until he rocketed all the way to MLB in 2006.

[andyb]

Cole's stats were a little better. He did not get to AA at age 19 though. Dominant in Low and High A at 19 and then mostly injured at age 20 and 21. Then dominant at age 22 and quickly to the majors.

The age 19 season Painter had was unique and pretty rare. It is hard to pick between the two of course and 19 year old Cole could probably have handled AA just fine if they had promoted him.

Someone should find an old Hamels minor league thread but I am guessing they were on the original board or at least the original software for this board. That would be fun to read because I think I do remember some day games when we were all following along (and I have no idea if we got inning updates on any timely basis like we do now).

[julio]

https://www.philliesphans.com/t/phillies-sign-cole-hamels/6059

https://www.philliesphans.com/t/hamels-is-head-and-shoulders-above-class-a-batters/12449

https://www.philliesphans.com/t/hamels-update/26565

https://www.philliesphans.com/t/cole-hamels-and-his-place-among-the-greats/32530

[allentown]

When Cole Hamels was a prospect, he dominated the minors like no one before or since, even Painter

Actually, I think that age 19 Painter has exceeded age 19 Hamels. The big difference is in walk rates. The next difference is in the levels pitched at. Painter reached AA. Cole did not. Cole didn't reach AA until he was 21. During their time in Reading, Painter and Hamels actually had exactly the same HR rate. Hamels gave up fewer hits, but with a bit less Ks and an absolute ton more BBs. Their ERAs were very close and Painter was two years younger. As andyb says, Hamels age 20 and 21 seasons were almost total wastes due to injury. This is why the Phillies need to be careful with Painter's innings and pitch counts this season. Painter threw almost exactly the same number of innings at age 19 as Hamels did at 19. Didn't work for Hamels as he managed only 51 IP COMBINED over the next two seasons. Painter has been more of a strikeout pitcher than Hamels was and his K rates are his K/BB ratio is unreal, especially at AA.

Phillychuck is just forgetting Hamels' HRs at AA. Painter did give up 2 HRs in high-A this past season, but 2 HRs in 37 IP is hardly a big deal.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Hamels did miss half the 2005 season because he broke his pitching hand in a barfight, so it wasn't like it was all pitching injuries.

[Austinfan]

Plus Painter is a big boy, with proper training and conditioning, he should be able to handle a bigger load than Hamels at the same age.

The key is him using his legs and proper mechanics and not succumbing to the temptation to overthrow and try and blow the ball by hitters, putting excessive strain on his arm. I think the biggest danger for young fireballers is that when they get to the Show, the adrenalin kicks in and instead of focusing on proper mechanics they get enthralled by the radar gun (hot damn, I just hit 100 and blew that guy away!).

The two things working in Painter's favor is he seems to be a "pitcher", not a thrower, even at a young age, and the Phillies utilizing video to analyze pitcher mechanics, which will give them an early warning if he starts to overthrow.

[zambonir]

Yeah I didn't recall Hamels as being a guy with injury issues, just a guy who got into a fight. Luckily he not only turned out to be a steady person but he was never going to be the biggest knucklehead of that generation's rotation regardless.

[allentown]

Yeah I didn't recall Hamels as being a guy with injury issues,

Hamels pitched only 16 innings in 2004. Also, the only reason the Phillies were able to draft him with a non-primo first-round pick is that he sustained a 'mystery' arm fracture in H.S. As to the 2005 injury" in some regards an injury is an injury as it detracts from development time. Any way you slice it, Hamels pitched few innings in 2004/2005 and I think we all (I know I should would be) will be extremely disappointed if Painter is only able to go that many innings in 2023/2024 combined. We know that Hamels had a plus career, but going into age 20 season, Painter better than Hamels. Given Hamels two lost seasons, Painter with a chance to have a longer career.

Both Hamels and Painter good enough that the greatest threat to a plus career was injury.

[andyb]

Yeah. Hamels dropped in the draft because of breaking his arm in HS and all the uncertainly around that. Then he missed most of a year because of the bar fight.

But the fact remains that delayed him 2 years from where Painter is today. If Painter can actually pitch well in the majors this year it would put him ahead of Hamels.

[Philsmania]

It's easy to forget that Hamels's health was a question mark when he first came up. He didn't really have a fully healthy season until 2010. He had DL stints in 2006 and 2007 and even in 2008 and 2009, minor injuries prevented him from starting on Opening Day as they had originally planned (hence, Myers got the OD nod both of those seasons).

[zambonir]

Yeah I just don't think of him as a guy who had major baseball injuries/surgeries. But sure, the IPs are the IPs.

[andyb]

Breaking his arm in HS was definitely a major baseball injury. Unclear if he did it while pitching if I recall. Obviously it was totally different than the older pitchers who broke it during a game (Dave Dravecky though cancer treatment I think was a contributing cause). Young arms heal, but that injury probably dropped him from the top 5-10 in the draft to later in the round where the Phillies got him.

Then we doubled down and took Joe Savery in 2007 who also dropped in the draft because of injury questions. Sometimes gambles don't work out.

[andyb]

ESPN NL Team Lists. 30 players rated 35+ or better. Top 7 listed and then 2 tiers. Kiley is a fan of Jordan Viars more than others. Sneaks NPG into the 40 group also.

How bright is your team's future? Ranking the top MLB prospects for all 15 NL...

[zambonir]

right that's what I mean, I didn't recall whether it happened in the act of throwing a baseball (or training). but a broken arm still seems less concerning than elbow/shoulder.

no such thing as a healthy pitcher right? just calculated risks. Painter is obviously well beyond our most recent two best pitching hopes (Sixto and Howard) in terms of development and performance but Law is not wrong to bring up the worst case scenario like he did.

[andyb]

I think it was banging into a car playing touch football. Like all 16-year-olds do, though the ones with million dollar arm are supposed to refrain from.

It still dropped his draft status though. I am fine with Law downgrading all young pitchers in rankings because of risk. It is his philosophy and he explains it. He is probably looking at career value projections rather than peak value when he does it. Different people have different ranking philosophies. I am just happy we have moved on from drafting Cal State Fullerton pitchers who walk nobody but hit 88-90 on a good day.