Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

andyb 2025-01-29 17:59:01 UTC #804

ESPN Top 100 out today also:

Miller 13
Painter 21
Chace 90
No Crawford or Tait.
Caba 66
Klassen 88

andyb 2025-01-30 16:56:47 UTC #805

Keith Law ranks the system 11th surprisingly. Comment is about the depth (which to me really does not look that great beyond our top 5. Hope he is right. Most organizations may be having trouble developing obvious pitching prospects in the low minors.

Philsmania 2025-01-30 18:06:22 UTC #806

That kind of reminds me of what was said of the Phillies farm system during the Klentak years--lots of depth but few stars.

Austinfan 2025-01-30 19:19:11 UTC #807

11th after trading Caba is pretty impressive.

But it comes down to developing that "depth," while Middleton is willing to spend, developing 5th SPs, RPs, bench players can spare you $8M for bad utility players and Walker contracts.

fish 2025-01-31 02:25:16 UTC #808

He said “ I always value depth in these rankings, so this is an unusually high ranking for a farm system that has a lot of high-risk, high-reward guys in the top 20”…which I took to mean the system doesn’t have the depth he’d typically value to rank this high.

phillychuck 2025-01-31 03:26:45 UTC #809

Not as much as we'd like to think...

I thought I posted this, but it must have been elsewhere...the system right now is artificially buoyed by Painter's injury. He is still a prospect, but if he hadn't been hurt he would have graduated. If Painter were not in the system, but on the MLB roster, the system would still be in the bottom half of the league.

andyb 2025-01-31 17:47:54 UTC #810

ESPN has the system 17th.

And throws in a second 100 ranking with Crawford (113) and Tait (188) added to Miller (13), Painter (21), and Chace (90).

allentown 2025-02-02 17:48:06 UTC #811

Seems more realistic than the 11th ranking. I'd say 15th.

andyb 2025-02-04 14:52:20 UTC #812

ESPN top 10. We already knew the first 5 in the top 100. Another fan of Aroon Escobar. I think he and Griffin Burkholder are the low minors guys I am most excited about this season. In the comments Kiley McDaniel mentions Nori in the same breath too though I am less high on him.

andyb 2025-02-06 14:31:14 UTC #813

Keith Law list here:

Austinfan 2025-02-06 15:30:49 UTC #814

Looking back at past years, the Phillies actually have a strong group through 19.
Walton at 20 I don't consider a legitimate prospect anymore.

Rincon explains why Caba was traded, both top fielders, Caba has bat control and plate discipline but really weak, Rincon more questionable when it comes to contact but much stronger.

Top 3 are 1st rd picks (Painter, Miller, Crawford), Nori (8), Abel (9)
Saltiban (6, 3rd), Rincon (10, 3rd), Burkholder (11, 2nd), Rincones (12, 3rd), DeMartini (13, 4th), McFarlane (15, 4th) Graves (16, 7th), Walton (20, 4th)

LA: Tait (4, $70K), Escobar (5, $450K), Cabrera (18, $10K), Pan (19, $350K)
Trades: Chace (7), Johnson (14), Mendez (17)

phillychuck 2025-02-06 15:42:30 UTC #815

Law is much lower on Chace than other writers. Other writers also prefer Burkholder to Nori. I don't think they chose to keep Rincon over Caba, (so Rincon doesn't explain Caba's trade), I think the Marlins specifically wanted Caba, who was a much more highly rated prospect. Law also much higher on Crawford than other lists.

kmc1019 2025-02-06 15:46:11 UTC #816

My favorite nugget from Law (para-phrasing):
Escobar is impressive but was limited by shin splints last year. If he hits like Law thinks he can, Escobar would be a top 50 Prospect in baseball this time next year.

andyb 2025-02-06 16:01:38 UTC #817

They are not in the same league as prospects. Caba was traded because we wanted Luzardo (and maybe because we think Miller will stick at SS). Rincon had nothing to do with the decision.

I posted earlier that Escobar and Burkholder were the 2 bats I am most excited to see this year. Might need to roll out the bubble wrap for each of them to avoid injuries.

Austinfan 2025-02-06 18:48:27 UTC #818

Rincon meant that they were more willing to part with Caba.
With Miller staying at SS in the short-run, they could take their time with Rincon and add more SS prospects.
Whereas there is no catcher in the system close to Tait.
Perez is looking like another $1+M LA bonus bust.

Both SS and CF are premium fielding positions, where even a mediocre bat can make you valuable if you are a plus fielder.
Which explains why Crawford (if he can improve his instincts), Rojas and Nori may have more valuable than most traditional observers grant them.
Same with Rincon (and Caba).

Buckholder is more likely to grow out of CF, which makes his bat more important.

fish 2025-02-07 01:25:02 UTC #819

I think they were willing to deal him because he didn’t project to be a big league regular in the next 3 years and the ceiling for his bat could be several years farther away (same goes for Rincon who could just as likely never get past AA as he could reach the big leagues)

phillychuck 2025-02-07 02:55:31 UTC #820

I have heard he's more likely than Nori to stick in CF.

Austinfan 2025-02-07 06:30:45 UTC #821

Not what I have in my notes:

"Defensively, pre-draft reports had him as a plus plus runner who could stick in center field. If he manages to do that, he could be an elite prospect, but his overall frame looks like he will lose at least a grade of speed. It is easy to see him shifting from ok center fielder to a plus corner defender"

6'2 195 at 18, so probably end up 210 lbs or so when he fills out that frame.
Odds are he loses a step and has average range in CF, whereas Nori as an older draft pick is more likely to maintain his current speed.
The tradeoff is he could add power as he fills out, be a plus fielding corner OF with plus power.

Squire 2025-02-07 12:06:04 UTC #822

I'm just hoping one or both of them hit the heck out of the ball this year.

andyb 2025-02-07 17:32:24 UTC #823

A little follow up article from Gelb on the prospect rankings looking forward to 2027. Interestingly he has Miller at SS and Turner going to RF with 3B TBD. I think Turner has the arm for 3B so that would be my first choice, though outside Crawford I get that it is hard to project who the OF will be in 2027 (before either Burkholder or Nori would likely be ready). Going with both Crawford and Rojas in the OF would seemingly give up too much offense also.

And if anyone with a BA account can summarize, it looks like we have a next 10 beyond their top 30 here.