Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[andyb]

Tommy McCollum joins the Phillies' Top 30 Prospect list following the trade of Erik Miller.

Scouting report, tool grades and more: https://t.co/4yRKkUCeRJ pic.twitter.com/ZN8G6bXuTj

— MLB Pipeline ( @MLBPipeline ) January 9, 2023

[phillychuck]

How is McCollum going to find time to play baseball with his NBA commitments?

[Austinfan]

LA craziness again:

no. 10 Morales $720K [off 40]
no. 21 Cabrera $10K
no. 25 Estanista $10K
no. 27 Segura $80K

Other top LA arms in the system:
Castillo $1.6M
Vargas $525
Betancourt $500K
Segovia $50K
Martinez $10K
Castellano $10K?
Armenta $10K

[andyb]

Why is that Latin American craziness? It is actually a well below average crop of arms from Latin America compared to most other organizations. You keep posting about bonuses but fail to identify a strategy that might produce some top prospects. This is a story much more about scouting and developmental failure than anything else.

[Austinfan]

They do a good job of finding cheap arms, but a horrid job of identifying players worthy of big contracts.
Some luck, Castillo blew out his arm, but maybe will bounce back.

But some bad scouting, I think they have scouts who focus more on what a 16 year looks like than what he projects to at 20. So they overpay early bloomers who have lower ceilings.

[andyb]

They do a good job of finding cheap arms

But do they? In a below average system the best cheap arm is ranked 21st. Every team signs a bunch of low cost arms and a few of them work out. The point is that we have a below average set of arms that we are developing.

I know you love the low bonuses. It is just not a strategy that is producing much.

[julio]

Yeah. I wouldn't have called that "LA craziness." More like "AF craziness."

[andyb]

MLB.com starting their positional rankings and RHP is a big one for the Phillies. Painter now number 1 and Abel 9th. They were ranked 24 and 54 on the late season top 100. Assume Painter could be top 5 now. Abel in the 30s perhaps.

Top Pitching Prospects | Right-Handed

[kmc1019]

Baseball America's Top 100 out........

Celebrations:
#5 (and top pitcher) Painter
#40 Abel

Pain:
#36 Mead
#42 O'Hoppe

Very few 2022 draftees on the list yet, Crawford not listed

[andyb]

I usually thought there were always 15-20 new draftees on the first next season prospect lists. I wonder now though if the lack of much short season play has made it more difficult to rank the guys that might have been towards the end of the top 100 like Crawford. 200 plate appearances in the past might have pushed him over the top. Without that, there are others with more of a track record.

It is logical that up to about 20 of these prospects should be top 100 since top prospects tend to make the majors relatively quickly, especially if they are college draftees.

[Philsmania]

If the Phillies hadn't traded Mead for Sanchez, would Mead still have developed with the crack development staff the Phillies had at the time as opposed to the Rays' state-of-the-art operation? Yes, the Phillies have overhauled things but would it have been too late for him?

[gmwannabe]

can you imagine having 4 in the top 100. Glory Be! it would have been something. Mead mike make it to the show this year.
gm

[kmc1019]

GM - that's how long the Phillies system has been awful. Every team should naturally have 3-4 prospects in the Top 100 every year just based on random distribution. Our expectations have been beaten down to be irrationally low.

[xogfog]

I have to say, I might be most excited about seeing Painter in spring training.

[gmwannabe]

kmc, I will be as well. the same excitement that I had when I heard that Hamels was going to pitch against the Yankees that year in spring training. they televised it on TV and he struck out the side (Jeter, Rodgriguez and someone else I think). tremendous change up. what a showing.
gm

[andyb]

Part of me is thinking that Painter will be really important to our playoff chances and wondering if we should start him a month late if he is ready for the majors so we don't run into his innings limit (120-130?) too much.

I assume they will take a similar approach to last year if he makes the major league team by giving him a few weeks off midseason and then ramping him up again for a few starts.

[Austinfan]

I'm not sure he'll have a innings limit, they plan to carefully monitor him and note any signs of fatigue.

Given he pitched 100 inning last year, is working out to build strength and stamina, they may just throw him as much as he can without showing fatigue, such as dropping his arm angle, etc. The smart thing is focusing on "tells" instead of velocity, since often pitchers subconsciously start to throw harder when velocity drop (which is why command often goes before velocity when a pitcher has a tired arm).

[zambonir]

There will be much to consider but first he actually has to do it in spring training. As much as it seems like the Phillies are eager to hand him the job if he's just slightly less than very good it's also very easy to justify starting him in AAA, if a bit tricky in terms of not wanting him to burn innings there.

And yes he will probably have an innings limit - but also no way to know what that is until he hits it, which by definition means they have to have one in mind. If he blows past it and looks fine doing it, great.

[andyb]

Pretty sure they have implied in interviews that Painter will have an innings limit, though as Z said, it will not really be known to Painter and somewhat flexible. Guessing they will also treat major league innings a bit different than minor league innings. Possibly they could use him as a 6th starter to keep the entire rotation pitching on 5 days rest, being skipped a few times when there is an off day and the 6th starter is not needed.

[allentown]

I don't think they'll let him throw 180 IP, Probably a limit of 140-150 IP.