Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[Austinfan]

Well, he was good enough that someone wanted him. Had 104 PA for Milwaukee.
Got us Mendez and Moore.

[andyb]

But really not that good.

Kemp played 1B and 3B and OF in Arizona. He has been more of a 3B than anything else in the minors and looks to be aging out of any real 2B playing time. As a right-handed platoon guy he has nowhere to play other than a LF platoon with the Phillies and Wilson is way ahead of him before we even speculate on who they acquire for the OF.

Right now he is good AAA depth. Imagine the Phillies would want to see AAA success before he was considered for a regular major league role. There should be one more season before he needs rule 5 protection. Dunn was much more of a AAAA guy who we had decided we were not going to protect on the 40-man roster (because we had Wilson and Clemens among others).

[andyb]

Missed this list a couple of months ago:

Philadelphia Phillies Top 15 Prospects For 2024

[kmc1019]

Superlatives from Baseball America for Andrew Painter in their ranking of Top 25 players from the Arizona Fall League. (Curiously to me, he ranked behind Mariners' SS Colt Emerson, who seems really good but not "Andrew Painter good"):

Top 25 Prospects From The 2024 Arizona Fall League

"....he looked as dominant as ever, cruising through six outings and winning the league’s Pitcher of the Year award. The tall righthander brought his fastball into triple-digits and showed uncommon command of a powerful four-pitch mix. All together, his mix of stuff, strikes and savvy gives Painter the foundation of a pitcher who could one day be one of the very best in the sport."

[Austinfan]

This has to be old, since it doesn't even mention Painter's AFL performance.

The one thing I get from these lists is the quality depth goes far deeper than it has for maybe two decades.

[bkox]

Ranks the Phillies 11th

MLB farm system rankings for every team after winter meetings

[andyb]

Matt with the back end of his 2025 top 50:

Phillies 2025 Top Prospects – Intro and the Back (27-50)

[allentown]

A fairly grim group, although this is way down the prospect order. A guy coming back year two from arm injury may step up, but way too many position players who simply cannot hit.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Hey there are some risky relievers and some teenage DSL arms in there! Otherwise that is about how it felt to write it.

[bkox]

Hey there are some risky relievers and some teenage DSL arms in there! Otherwise that is about how it felt to write it.

Matt you have been doing this for a bunch of years now. Has anyone deep in your rankings (30+) ever made the majors and if so were they anything more than a quick cup of coffee?

[andyb]

I bet somebody like Matt Vierling was at the back end of the ratings if ranked at all after his first couple of seasons. Ranger Suarez was probably unranked after his 3 VSL seasons even though the last one was his famous 1 BB in 80 IP year.

There are lots of back end prospects that make the majors. Stars are rare, but substantial contributors happen more than one would think.

[Matt_Winkelman]

As andyb said there is natural matriculation up the ranks, so I have been going to 50 since 2015 and this will only capture the ranked, not anyone unranked, I have included the 30+ rank+year and their highest ranking+year. I also just sometimes miss.
2015: Rhys Hoskins (#37->#12 2017), Edubray Ramos (#38->#26 2016), Adam Morgan (#45<-#2 2013), Brandon Leibrandt (#48)
2016: Dylan Cozens (#31->#13 2017), Luke Williams (#36), Bailey Falter (#42->#14 2021), Tyler Gilbert (#46)
2017: Victor Arano (#31<-#14 2015), Ben Lively (#32<-#11 2015), Jesmuel Valentin (#33<-#22 2015), Deivi Grullon (#34<-#15 2015), Cole Irvin (#37->#17 2018), Francisco Morales (#38->#3 2020), Joely Rodriguez (#41<-#24 2015), Mauricio Llovera (#44->#16 2019), Edgar Garcia (#49)
2018: Jesmuel Valentin (#32<-#22 2015), Bailey Falter (#34->#14 2021), Dylan Cozens (#35<-#13 2017), Edgar Garcia (#37), J.D. Hammer (#41), Dalton Guthrie (#49->#18 2023)
2019: Matt Vierling (#34->#9 2022), Nick Maton (#35->#11 2021), Edgar Garcia (#36), Cole Irvin (#37<-#17 2018), Bailey Falter (#41->#14 2021), Drew Anderson (#46->#24 2018)
2020: Cole Irvin (#32<-#17 2018), Connor Brogdon (#40->#18 2021)
2021: Cristopher Sanchez (#31<-#16 2020), James McArthur (#32->#21 2022), Ramon Rosso (#37), Ben Brown* (#40), Luke Williams (#54), Mauricio Llovera (#55<-#16 2019)
2022: Ben Brown* (#46), JoJo Romero (#47<#7 2019)
2023: James McArthur (#41<-#21 2022)
2024: Michael Mercado (#31)

*Ben Brown would have been top 10 at 2022 midseason if I used actual numbers

Ranger Suarez for example went unranked in 2017, #25 by midseason, #18 in 2018, #14 in 2019

[bkox]

appreciate that Matt!

[andyb]

Next part of Matt's rankings is 17-26. A bold Brad Pacheco ranking here.

Phillies 2025 Top Prospects – The Middle #17-26

[Matt_Winkelman]

Something that I sort of danced around because they aren't real games and I have to do the tracking by hand and there are no stats is that we have DSL and a couple FCL instruct games. So I have like 4 Angel Liranzo unofficial games and 2-3 Pacheco games, some extra Burkholder PAs, another half dozen Ferrebus games, as well as some other guys where we have very limited actual games.

[andyb]

It is great that Pacheco's stuff looked good in those games. Guessing the midlevel ranking is more about the mush in the middle of the rankings than anything else of course. I imagine we are getting a better feel for DSL competition these days with the revised roster rules making most organizations leave midlevel international prospects down there for an extra year or two. Competition level is much closer to FCL/GCL these days than it was previously.

[Matt_Winkelman]

It is the mush in the middle, I would feel more comfortable with him closer to 30. For pitching I am looking a little less at the competition, though it is worrying if they aren't missing bats in the DSL, I am looking more at what the stuff looks like. So in Pacheco I see a guy where the fastball shape passes the eye test and he sits 91-95 with some future possible velocity growth. The delivery looks fine and while I don't always love a big breaking curve as the only breaking ball, it does fit the fastball movement well. The changeup is extremely raw, but I did see ones that show there is something there. Overall, he was more advanced than the other DSL arms and was probably equivalent to a mid-late draft day 2 high school pitcher.

[andyb]

Getting closer to the top. Wondering a little who is 5th (unless we are still ranking Caba since this might have been written before the trade). Painter, Miller, Crawford, Tait, ???

Phillies 2025 Top Prospects – The Actual Middle of the System #6-16

[Matt_Winkelman]

Caba would have been 3, but he and Boyd were not written yet at time of trade. The name you are missing is actually ranked 3rd on this list.

[Squire]

Updated BA Top 100

Andrew Painter is 9
Aidan Miller is 36
Eduardo Tait is 93
Justin Crawford is 96

FYI Caba is 72