Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[andyb]

Either way I don't think Crawford was far from that ESPN top 100. He probably belongs there but some analysts still question the power projection. The difference between being ranked 70 and 110 is probably not that great and they just added a dozen first round picks to their rankings most likely.

Miller is starting to get better results at Jersey Shore and remember that park suppresses power which is a big part of his game (in the same way Reading often presents way too positive power results). A hitter advancing from High A to AA and showing more power in their stats is a pretty common thing for the Phillies since the parks are at the 2 extremes.

[owaistabish]

DSL Hitters Review

8/16/24 : Reviewing the DSL - Part Two of Two - Position Players

[fish]

Victor Cardozo emerging in the dsl was really important for the system to go along with Ferribus as another crop of two guys to bring stateside with high ceiling prospect potemtial. No one is really showing welll from the 2024 signing class so at least this gives that bunch another year to cook.

[andyb]

Arias was playing pretty well (783 OPS, 2 HR in 14 games) before he got hurt. So he'll be another potential top prospect in FCL next year. Ferribus is a bit of a wild card but he really looked like he had a good athletic foundation to go with the hit tool in the limited time we saw him. Must have been a bad ankle sprain for him.

[fish]

Well from what I saw last night, McDaniel was spot on. Went out to the Reading game last night. What a disappointment. Crawford didn't get the ball out of the infield and and struck out twice. Tall, Really skinny player. Kind of like Domonic Brown but skinnier. But, Crawford had 4 hits earlier in the week so who knows. Beautiful night a the ball park but not so good for the phils. SS Schwenke looked real good, defensively though.
gm

For whatever it's worth, Justin's minor league stats are nearly identical to his father's- he's just a year behind where Carl was at the same age.

Carl:

Justin:

[Austinfan]

Outside of the top guys, it usually takes a year or two, we're talking 17 year old kids.

[andyb]

It is definitely a good comparison between the two. The one question I guess one might have is that power is more prevalent in today's game than compared to when Carl played. The 8 HR guy in the minors often became a 20 HR guy in the majors when that was harder to do. Now it does not move the needle quite as much, though the higher OBP from Justin does suggest his hit tool might be better.

One can definitely say that Justin's early track record is as good or better than Carl's. Of course Carl got much better as he aged so we can't count on genes providing the same boost. Justin also likely had advantages growing up as the son of a major leaguer that let him develop things like his hit tool much earlier than his Dad did. Carl was just much less polished as a prospect at similar age and experience levels.

As I said it really does not matter that some analysts put him in the top 100 and some don't. Whether he is in likely depends on whether one believes in the power potential and the physical development that his dad showed.

[bkox]

here is a composite farm system ranking based on 5 different post deadline/draft publications pic.twitter.com/PKDTKJ6LTq

— BrooksGate ( @Brooks_Gate ) August 19, 2024

[LoneStarPhan]

Consensus is that the Phillies farm system is average. I guess that is better than it has been most years of late.

[nycphils]

Been a long time since our system was average

[kmc1019]

Recent acquisition RHP Moises Chase recognized as one of "10 Sleeper Pitching Prospects":

10 Unheralded Young Pitching Prospects With Plus Stuff, Performance In 2024

Snippet:

"Age: 21
Stuff+: 116

The Phillies acquired Chace, a young righty with solid performance, at the deadline for Gregory Soto. Chace is fresh off his Double-A debut and owns a 3.43 ERA with 95 strikeouts to 34 walks over 65.2 innings pitched. After the Orioles limited Chace to three to four innings per start, the Phillies have taken the reins off, allowing him to go five innings the last two times out.

Chace has a plus four-seam fastball, sitting 94-95 mph and touching 97 mph at peak. .... Acquiring a higher upside piece for a spare part may end up being a shrewd move by the Phillies."

[Austinfan]

What's impressive is this improvement has occurred the last few years without top ten picks, a lower than average LA bonus allotment, and losing a couple picks to FA signings.

Suggests that the changes they made to scouting and development are bearing fruit
Goal should be a top ten program on a regular basis, any higher improbable given the restrictions placed on winning teams with high payrolls.

[allentown]

Definitely encouraging signs. I still want more emphasis on signing pitchers.

[Austinfan]

MILB current top 30:
(2) Painter
(6) Abel
(13) Cabrera - $10K
(15) Johonson - trade
(16) McFarlane
(19) Mercado - trade
(20) Pan
(21) McGarry
(22) McGowan
(26) Chace - trade
(27) Graves
(29) Ottenbreit
Others
Pipkin
Castellano
Steward
Estanista
Eddington

I think they've shifted to stockpiling upside arms at low cost then trading for pitching prospects - (Sanchez for Mead).
One reason may be development time, if a pitcher requires extended time, he's unlikely to be claimed out of A ball, but a high profile pitcher is a Rule 5 candidate.

So two tier system? Spend resources on elite arms you're willing to protect, stockpile 3rd tier prospects who you will have time to fix mechanics, develop secondary pitches and build organizational pitching depth.

[zambonir]

Sanchez for Mead was a whole different regime. The shift under Barber and Dombrowski/Fuld started in 2022 (Abel 2020 when Klentak was still GM, Painter/McGarry/McGowan/Ottenbriett 2021).

[Austinfan]

I think what Mead/Sanchez demonstrated was that position player prospects can garner close to ML ready pitching prospects. Whereas million dollar LA 17 year olds or 18 year old HS pitchers are high variance gambles. They not only have to develop, they have to stay healthy.

I've noticed they take a lot of shots on pitchers 24-26 who are post TJ surgery. Low cost, lower risk of injury (2nd TJ happens but not as often as 1st), possibility of 2 year after injury bounceback.

[allentown]

Whereas million dollar LA 17 year olds or 18 year old HS pitchers are high variance gambles. They not only have to develop, they have to stay healthy.

I think our first round and $million LA position player gambles have also been high variance gambles. What argument, based upon actual Phillies drafti/international data do you have that suggest H.S. and younger position players have been safer significant-$ signings for us than equal age and price pitching signees?

[andyb]

While there have been some improvements to our scouting and development systems, the biggest reason we moved up 5-10 spots in the rankings this year was really Painter getting hurt and not graduating from the rankings (while retaining high value).

Take Painter away and our system ranks in the low 20s most likely.

[andyb]

I guess we have tended to go for relatively polished high school hitters. Crawford, Miller, and Nori are all high floor guys for HS players. Burkholder is more risky (though enabled by the under slot high floor pick in Nori).

The biggest change in our system rankings is we really have stopped spending much money on pitching. Hitters are less risky in general at whatever age they are acquired. Pitchers get hurt.

I think any big organizational shift has been towards developing more toolsy hitters (so they have defensive value) over spending money on pitching. The consequence is we'll have to spend more free agent dollars on pitchers than on hitters.

It is really hard to say that we are better than 5 years ago or there is some grand strategy that has improved our rankings. We probably are a little smarter analytically because Klentak was flailing there for a bit. When rankings depend so much on the speed of graduation then small things might look like trends but really aren't. Heck, just by drafting more HS number ones we probably improve our system ranking versus college number ones over time simply because the HS players spend 2+ more years in the system on average. Guys like Bohm and Nola who blow through the system only get ranked in the top 100 once or twice.

[andyb]

Matt on pitcher of the year in the system. Kind of agree that it should be Castellano among that group. No great prospects like Painter unfortunately this year. One or two starts at the end could also shift things around.

The Race for the 2024 Paul Owens Pitching Award