Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[Austinfan]

I think Aldegheri and Cabrera just got promoted to Reading. So Phillies like them.

[andyb]

I think Aldegheri and Cabrera just got promoted to Reading. So Phillies like them.

That is kind of a non sequitur. The promoted Abel to AAA at a much younger age than those too so I guess they like Abel better.

[phillychuck]

I believe they did like Abel better...maybe not now, though. it's great to have a few guys who at least have potential.

[zambonir]

Well it's not like the Phillies make Baseball America's list.

I think these lists are as subject to recency bias and of-the-moment trendiness as anything else. Shiny new things are more interesting and of course there's no denying that Abel's stock is down. And as serious-minded as BA is, I'm sure they also don't mind starting discussions just like this one. But which part seems more like an overreaction, listing the other two guys that high or listing Abel that low. Either way it seems he was going to be behind them.

[Austinfan]

At the time. They're not giving up on Abel, he still has his velocity, but you have to be able to command your FB to set up your secondary pitches.

[andyb]

I think these lists are as subject to recency bias and of-the-moment trendiness as anything else. Shiny new things are more interesting and of course there's no denying that Abel's stock is down.

Exactly. Aldegheri and Cabrera have had nice seasons but they also don't have Abel's raw stuff and his results are affected by the level they are at and the things the Phillies are having them work on.

I agree PC it is great to see 2 young pitchers take a step forward. I have liked Aldegheri's mix of stuff for a long time though his ceiling is still more Cole Irvin than Ranger Suarez at this point. And Cabrera has gradually gained velocity as he has gotten older and he is learning how to spin everything. Two good success stories. Probably not close to top 100 prospects but also pitchers who fit in the back end of many team's top 10 (maybe top 15 in the better organizations).

Tait to me is the younger prospect that appears special and not only because of his age. The power is legit. Maybe Sal Perez type power as a catcher when he is older and he appears to have an idea of the strike zone and plenty of time to refine that. Couple that with the raw tools to be a catcher and one can see a real big league catcher in 3 years or so.

[Austinfan]

Bergolla is the prospect who is overlooked, he's gradually adding strength, had great plate discipline and is good at making contact. As he physically matures, like Marchan, he should develop gap power.

[fish]

At the time. They're not giving up on Abel, he still has his velocity, but you have to be able to command your FB to set up your secondary pitches.

Something was going on with him earlier in the year- while he could still hit 96-97, his average FB velo was under 95. That's really only come back in the last month, albeit with no more success than he had before. Maybe he needs a reset with a trip to the bullpen to just air it out an inning or two at a time to get back on track before putting him back in the rotation.

[zambonir]

Question is, which one of these pitchers is this year's Ben Brown? At this point it could be Abel (i.e. he's no longer untouchable. But you'd be selling low).

[andyb]

Both Aldegheri and Cabrera clearly meet the trade bait criteria as they are guys performing very well at the moment and rising in the prospect rankings. Prospects should be traded (if they are traded at all) when their value is highest and both of those players might be valued higher now than their tools might merit.

[allentown]

Something was going on with him earlier in the year- while he could still hit 96-97, his average FB velo was under 95.

Phillies changed his motion and forced him to focus on FB, rather than more effective swing-and-miss offerings. This may help his long-term development but the results to date have not been pretty. Short-term pain for long-term gain or ruined a top prospect. It will take a while to learn the answer to that one.

[andyb]

Keith Law updated rankings:

Top 60 MLB prospects: Jackson Holliday, Marcelo Mayer lead Keith Law's updated...

Miller (20), Painter (29) and Crawford (35) in the top 60.

[zambonir]

does this spare us from seeing how Abel dropped since it was only 60? I guess I don't know where Law previously had him.

[andyb]

If BA thinks Abel is only our 12th best prospect then he is not going to make too many overall lists unless they go down to 400. Realistically I'd still have Abel in our top 10 though probably behind the above 3 and Caba and Tait and maybe one or two others. So in the 6-9 range for us.

[Austinfan]

Caba and Tait have to be pushing for top 100 next season if they show anything in Clearwater, given their age.

[andyb]

Matt has been busy:

Phillies 2024 Midseason Prospect Ranking and Trade Deadline Preview

Question for Matt - there are definitely lots of arms that are rule 5 eligible next winter. But even in the better group of Cabrera, Aldegheri, Castellanos, and McGowan are we really sure that they need to be protected? They are good but not great arms for the most part and also none of them are really ready for a major league role yet. I just don't think teams stash pitchers any more because they need them. Could Cabrera and Aldegheri survive as the long man in the bullpen? Sure, but that would not be ideal even for a rebuilding team.

It does make sense to trade some of the rule 5 eligible. It just may not be quite as high a priority since not protecting them to get another year of control has been the Phillies rule 5 strategy in recent years.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Add Andrew Baker, Mick Abel, and Griff McGarry to that group as well. I wrote about it earlier in the week (https://philliesminorthoughts.com/player-protection-decisions-loom-over-phillies-deadline-strategy/)

McGowan and Castellano are less locks, but I think there stuff will play well there. Cabrera and Aldegheri are about to get 2 months in AA. Assuming they don't flop they definitely work as long men or 5th starters, and their value (both have been mentioned in trade) means that you don't really want to risk losing them for nothing. In general teams don't leave top 10 prospects in the org exposed (which some sites have those two rated as).

[Austinfan]

The 40 man roster probably has 11 guys who could be jettisoned at the end of the season without tears.
Allard, Castillo, Nelson, Ruiz, Tarnok, (Turnbull FA), Stubbs, Castro, Hall, Kennedy, Wilson.

[andyb]

Ideally you still don't elevate guys like Aldegheri and Cabrera to the 40 if you don't think they will be selected. I think it is better than 50-50 they would not get selected. Each probably needs at least a year, maybe two more in the minors. Adding them to the 40 takes away an option year. This Phillies regime prizes option years. It really does not matter if we have room on the 40 now that much. We still might trade for other players like Mercado with options.

[Squire]

BA Updated Phillies Top 30

1. Andrew Painter, RHP
2. Justin Crawford, CF
3. Aidan Miller, SS/3B
4. Starlyn Caba, SS
5. George Klassen, RHP
6. Eduardo Tait, C
7. Samuel Aldegheri, LHP
8. Griffin Burkholder, CF
9. Jean Cabrea, RHP
10. William Bergolla, 2B
11. Bryan Rincon, SS
12. Dante Nori, CF
13. Gabriel Rincones, OF
14. Mick Abel, RHP
15. Devin Saltiban, 2B/OF
16. Michael Mercado, RHP
17. Wen Hui Pan, RHP
18. TJayy Walton, OF
19. Christian McGowan, RHP
20. Alex McFarlane, RHP
21. John Spikerman, SS/OF
22. Carson DeMartini, SS/3B
23. Aroon Escobar, 2B
24. Raylin Heredia, OF
25. Enrique Seguar, RHP
26. Anderson Navas, C
27. Jalvin Arias, OF
28. Hendry Mendez, OF
29. Emaarion Boyd, CF
30. Caleb Ricketts, C

How does LHP Mavis Graves not crack our Top 30?