Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[julio]

Peyton Manning is running Phillies development now?

Or perhaps Eli?

[Austinfan]

It's still football season so Manning/Mattingly, but if had to choose, it's definitely Peyton, the smart brother.

[zambonir]

Obviously you find our development director to be very memorable.

[allentown]

Prospects as trade value can be important to a team's success, especially if that team has financial flexibility (able/willing to increase salary budget -- to further into tax and draft/international penalty territory). Unless the trade is for good, young, cheap, controllable talent, it doesn't solve the Phillies salary cap problems. Only a bunch of above-average, home-grown or Rule 5/minor league pick up players can do that.

To Andy: we are still in the position of picking in the 20s. We only avoiding losing a #1 pick, because the rules change. We did lose our 2nd and 5th round picks in the last draft. We lost our 2nd round pick in the 2022 draft. Looks like we'll avoid that fate this year but is that really an established trend with the newmanagement team?

[zambonir]

The CBT thresholds - not really a "salary cap" - are only a problem if ownership is not willing to exceed it. Truth is the penalties are minimal in terms of the tax itself. Going over the $40 million mark and having your first-round pick demoted 10 spots is where it gets hairy. The Mets (6th to 16th), Padres (15 to 25) and Yankees (16 to 26) all did that this year; what would have happened had the Phillies done it from 27 or higher? That would have been de facto losing your first-round pick though you could also argue it would have been worth it (at least, more so than for those other teams).

While I don't love all the choices, I think Dombrowski has done a good job balancing present and future and recognizing he neither inherited enough major league talent nor had enough of it close to the majors. He actually hasn't been any more aggressive about QO signings than Klentak was (they both did it twice in three years post-rebuild, but Harper and Wheeler were better choices than Castellanos and probably Turner too).

Eventually something will have to give however. I certainly don't think they can afford to trade Abel or Kerkering for more established pitching right now and there's still nobody looking like a certain replacement for Castellanos or even Bohm in the next 1-3 years.

[Austinfan]

That's why improvement scouting/development matters so much, if you're picking in the 20s and have a million less than most teams in LA, you're not going to land a lot of slam dunks. The ability to say retool Miller's swing and turn him into a 30 HR 3B is worth millions in investment in facilities and coaching personnel. Or accelerate Tait's move up the ladder or . . . You're not going to hit on everyone, but you need to hit on more high cost assets and find more "diamonds in the rough" than the Phillies have done the past decade.

At least they recognize the need to improve scouting/development and have invested significant resources.
Now whether they can effectively execute that strategy remains to be seen.

[fish]

fish, that is a fair point. Is our prospect capital better now? I seem to recall some pretty highly thought-of guys in the previous administrations, too.

Figure 4 guys in the top 100 for a club that routinely loses picks, and who has been picking later and later- that’s good production. Plus they had themselves a top 10 guy in Painter (it may not have lasted but they created that prospect capital). During the peak rebuild years they had their share of high draft pick guys who made the top 100 more on reputation than production like Moniak, Randolph and Hasely. The guys they have now are on the list because they earned it.

[Austinfan]

The top 100 list is nice, but solid quality depth is as important, all those arms they've stockpiled the last couple years in AA and AAA, need a couple to fill out the bullpen. This is where that scouting/coaching nexus comes in, anyone can identify a 100 MPH FB, where you earn your money is identifying the pitcher with mechanics that are fixable and the mindset to do the work to fix them. Same with hitters, raw power is easy to scout, plate discipline, swing mechanics, eye to hand coordination, reaction time, and again, coachability. We've seen too many hitters die in the upper end of the system after a good start.

Skepticism is deserved, but for a couple decades they wouldn't even acknowledge they had a problem, probably b/c they had one hot streak in the 90s (Rollins, Howard, etc) and got complacent. The current team has few homegrown players, Stott, Bohm, Rojas. Nola, Ranger. Some prospects went in trades, most haven't panned out. O'Hoppe for Marsh, Mead for Sanchez, Maton/Vierling for Soto, Cleavinger for Alvarado, Miller for Marte, and Sanchez/Alfaro for JT.

[zambonir]

Miller for Marte

Took me a second on that one.

[andyb]

we are still in the position of picking in the 20s.

Abel (15), Painter (13), and Crawford (17) were all earlier than 20. Miller is our only pick in the late part of the round in recent years. Drafting in the middle of the round is a whole lot different than drafting late and picks tend to hold their trade value for 2-3 years absent injury because of their tools (ideally anyway).

We have not hit on any of these number ones yet, but they all have performed relatively well for their draft slot so far. That is good for Barber. Rounds 2-4 have less success so far unfortunately. We took a big swing for Devin Saltiban last year for instance and that is risky when you don't have your second round pick. Our starting pitching depth in the minors is almost non-existent because we are not using those round 2-4 picks on safer college alternatives. It is a choice we are making, but it would be foolish to dismiss the risk in that choice.

[Austinfan]

We're going for big arms in both the draft and trades/signings, Kerkering has panned out, but a lot have faltered.
Still too early to see if they're overconfident in their ability to "fix" hard throwers who lack command (McGarry, Baker, Marte, etc.)

[andyb]

The big arms are not generally starters. And the ones that are tend to get hurt (Painter, MacFarlane). We have a starting pitching depth problem in the upper and the lower minors (we are not generating much from Latin America on the pitching side these days).

It is one of the reasons we probably had to re-sign Nola and probably will extend Wheeler for 5+ more years. We don't have replacements and we can't see many 4th starters behind the top guys (Painter and Abel).

[Austinfan]

The big arms usually start out as starters, and move to the bullpen when they show they can't command 3+ pitches, and the hope is to teach them one secondary pitch that can be at least average to keep hitters honest for 1 inning. Neris is a good example, his 95 MPH FB was very hittable unless he could throw his splitter close enough to the K zone to force hitters to chase it.

The ideal starter has a 2 seamer (that moves away from RH hitters if LH pitcher and visa versa), 4 seamer at the top of the zone, changeup/splitter with a fade, and a slider/slurve. [Few pitchers can make a traditional curve work as anything more than a "show me" pitch these days.] And can throw all for strikes without leaving them over the middle of the plate. Them are hard to find.

Most starters are 3 pitch guys with average command who can't go more than twice through a lineup.
Those who can't command 3 pitches get moved to the pen where the hope is they'll get a velo jump.

[nycphils]

I know I’m biased toward Carlos de la Cruz, but seems pretty rough for Fangraphs to not even rate him at a 35. His K rate has come down each of the last 3 years, and at 24 in AAA, it isn’t impossible for him to carve out at least a bench OF career since he can play all three positions passably. 27% of his PA ending in strikeouts with 54 BB doesn’t seem like historically terrible…but maybe the other chase numbers suggest those Ks understate the problem.

[andyb]

Baseball Prospectus bullish on Miller and Caba. Less harsh on De La Cruz and McGarry.

2024 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

Twitter feed from the author on some of his thought processes. Read beyond the initial tweet.

Writing a prospect list a few years into a Dave Dombrowski tenure is always a trip. https://t.co/sEBJWIn3gh

— Jeffrey Paternostro ( @jeffpaternostro ) January 8, 2024

[andyb]

Inquirer starting a weekly prospect update with notes on Rincon and Tait (who other teams are apparently asking for in every trade request). Also, performance camp opens in Clearwater and the Dominican.

Phillies prospect update: Power-hitting catcher Eduardo Tait and slick-fielding...

[Austinfan]

Tait should be untouchable, if he's for real, he'll shoot up the ladder.

[andyb]

Tait is not untouchable. He is so far away that we really don't know about the defense or the hit tool. Every team is asking about him and Rincon because they think they are undervalued prospects. That is the nature of the prospect trading game. They ask less about a prospect like Crawford because in a trade he would be fully valued given his pedigree and higher level performance.

Tait is not unlike Hao Yu Lee in that respect. The Phillies waited an extra year on him but other teams still sought him because he might be undervalued. But we traded him. Maybe we soured on his ceiling a bit, but he was still one of the hotter, lesser known prospects in our system.

[Austinfan]

Tait has far more upside than Lee, who had a good hit tool but was basically limited to 2B, and nothing special there as a fielder. Phillies were willing to move him with Stott in the majors and a number of top IF prospects in the system.

Tait is a catcher, who had a great year in the DSL at 16, already is showing good power and hasn't grown up yet. Could flatline like any prospect, but in terms of upside, might have the highest ceiling outside of Painter b/c he isn't an early maturation freak like Ortiz. He's was listed at 6'0 175, so it's easy to imagine him filling out to 6'1 200 in a few seasons. Average raw power, plus arm, good athlete, the raw tools are there to develop him.

[zambonir]

Fangraphs puts Tait's first major league season at 2029, so a whole lot could sure happen between now and then.