Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[andyb]

I think Lee is still solidly in that 6-10 range for me. Maybe even 7th. Jersey Shore just hurts power stats and he has dealt with a couple of injuries. Still a solid performance for a young player in that league.

I love Heredia as much as anyone, but not ready to put him in the top 10 till we see more at a higher level. I imagine Miller is the only new draftee we will be ranking in the top 20 for now though a couple may sneak into the back end of the top 30. I probably would consider Pan in the top 15. Would think about it at least. A few more weeks and we'll be putting Eduardo Tait on these lists.

[Squire]

Keith Law Mid-Season Top 60 prospect list - no Painter, no Abel, no McGarry but a burgeoning love affair with Justin Crawford -

Crawford, the Phillies’ first-round pick last year, was supposed to be a long-term projection guy who could run and play center but had to add all this strength to get to any power. Wrong, Jack Germondo! Crawford’s BP before the Futures Game had him driving the ball out the other way, and once he gets out of the graveyards of the Florida State League he’s going to start putting balls in seats in the games, which is terrifying because he hasn’t begun to fill out. He is, also, a plus-plus runner who can play center, with 36 steals in 41 attempts, and has already shown strong bat-to-ball skills. This could be very special — he might be the player his father, Carl, was supposed to be but never was.

[fish]

Keith Law Mid-Season Top 60 prospect list - no Painter, no Abel, no McGarry but a burgeoning love affair with Justin Crawford

Understandable- until recently all the promising AA guys were kind of spinning their wheels. As Abel continues to sharpen his stuff his command doesn't look any better. I'm sure he'll get the ironed out but it could be a few years until it's good enough to be a good mlb pitcher.

With only 90 career minor league innings I don't know what's reasonable timeframe to put on Andrew Baker's development. Could be overnight, or it could be another 2 years.

[phillychuck]

I don't understand the national prejudice against Johan Rojas. His walk percentage is slowly creeping up as he moves through levels, his K percentage is steady at a pretty low 17%, and his power is moving up dramatically as he moves up levels. He's a ++ CF defensively, and a +++ runner on the basepaths. I just don't understand how he's not a top 60 prospect as a 22-year-old in AA (or in the majors, currently). His RC+ at Reading this year is 30% above the average Eastern League player while being 2 years younger on average.

As AF is fond of saying, if his MLB OPS is close to .700 he's a 2-3 WAR CF based on speed and defense alone.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I don't have the data for this year, but among evaluators I talk there is some concern about swing decisions and pitch recognition. Essentially that he can make contact with a bunch of pitches which keeps the K rate down and he generally has a good idea of what he should do at the plate. The worry is that better pitchers with better stuff will exploit it and his contact quality will plummet and he does not walk enough to get on base if he just pounding the ball into the ground each time. There is also some worry that he may struggle to read premium breaking pitches and pitchers will get him to expand the zone more. It is not identical, but it is similar to some of the issues that undid Maikel Franco.

There is some level of not really prospect fatigue, but observing of failure, that has occurred on Rojas where he is consistently judged by the flaws we have seen until we see him correct those flaws. That has a tendency to put him behind players who have not yet had those sort of errors exposed. Whether that is fair or not is a discussion, but that is why he has generally drifted into a being in that like top 100-200 range.

[nycphils]

A little more from Keith Law:

12 Curtis Mead (1B/3B)

57 Logan O’Hoppe (C)

Honorable Mention (“I’m doing a longer list of honorable mentions this year than usual, since the back of the top 60 was pretty hard to settle on. This list is in alphabetical order, not rank, but all of these players would be on a top 100 if I did a ranking that long right now.”) includes Abel and Painter of the 19 names presented.

[Austinfan]

O'Hoppe don't bother me, Marsh has kept his OPS > .800, is at least average defensively in CF and above average in LF, and brings energy and enthusiasm. More a win-win.

Sanchez is doing his best to keep that deal from being one sided, he's been solid as the #5, if the Phillies come up short, he's not to blame.

[zambonir]

A bit of talk about Mead going to a new team this month.

[andyb]

The MLB.com top 30 has not been reranked yet (so no Aidan Miller yet) but they do their awkward removal and replacement.

So Hao Yu Lee is no longer on the list. I think the addition was Caleb Ricketts at 26 because the 4 guys behind him had already been added at some point. Lee now 6th for Detroit.

[Austinfan]

Losing Lee doesn't bother me much, I think he'll be a solid utility IF, but does he have any outstanding tools other than consistent contact? Some gap power, speed? defense?

To me Rojas has far more upside, probably more risk as well, but upside is key for your top prospects, the rest are destined for bench, long relief duty. So I'm reluctant to part with the few prospects who could be 3-4 WAR players down the road, even if most miss out.

[Squire]

Updated BA Top 30

1. Andrew Painter, RHP
2. Mick Abel, RHP
3. Justin Crawford, CF
4. Griff McGarry, RHP
5. Aidan Miller, SS/3B
6. Johan Rojas, CF
7. Orion Kerkering, RHP
8. Simon Muzzioti, CF
9. William Bergolla, SS
10. Gabriel Rincones, OF
11. Ethan Wilson, OF
12. Alex McFarlane, RHP
13. Carlos De La Cruz, OF/1B
14. Starlyn Caba, SS
15. Wen Hui Pan, RHP
16. Emaarion Boyd, CF
17. Andrew Baker, RHP
18. Christian McGowan, RHP
19. Micah Ottenbreit, RHP
20. Caleb Ricketts, C
21. Bryan Rincon, SS
22. Tommy McCollum RHP
23. Devin Saltiban, SS/CF
24. Jaydenn Estanista, RHP
25. Cam Brown, RHP
26. George Klassen, RHP
27. TayShaun Walton, OF
28. Enrique Segura, RHP
29. Eduardo Tait, C
30. Raylin Heredia, OF

[gmwannabe]

McGowan still hanging there after almost a year and a half. Good reason. I think he will make it.
gm

[fish]

Rojas showing in the big leagues has been a revelation- I don’t recall having seen a better center fielder on the team. I’m not old enough to remember if Maddox had that kind of closing speed.

That in itself is special regardless of offensive questions - he’s ahead of McGarry and Miller for me.

[Austinfan]

Maddox had similar speed, but when he was in center, he was an older player, 2 years in the army, then the minors, and was fully developed when traded to the Phillies, so he had better instincts. But same impact - both could get to balls in the alleys that most CFs can't reach.

[xogfog]

Maddox was supreme in center. He had great reads and covered lots of ground, which led to the saying "Water covers 2 thirds of the Earth, Garry Maddox cover the rest".

[schooldoc]

Jayson Stark this week quoted a scout already calling Rojas one of the five best defensive CF in the game.

[phillychuck]

Maddox's real edge wasn't just that he was fast and got to everything, he was so confident going back on balls he played a very shallow CF and took away a lot of bloop and even line-drive base hits. There were no Texas League singles with GM in CF.

[bkox]

New rankings from MLB Pipeline

Phillies have 4 in the top 100

29 - Painter
49 - Abel
83 - Justin Crawford
97 - Aiden Miller

[andyb]

And a new top 30:

Phillies Top Prospects

[gmwannabe]

Where's Rikardo? I know he was suspended, but dropping off the list totally? Released? the yankees will pick him up.
gm