Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

Austinfan 2023-04-06 16:58:21 UTC #244

Not sure about that b/c many tools don't develop for a few years, lower level rated prospects tend to be high profile draft picks and big money LA signings b/c they were drafted/signed b/c their tools were evident early in their careers.

Painter, Abel, Crawford were 1st rd picks
McGarry 5th rd
Rojas wasn't a prospect until his breakout season, low cost signing
Lee $507K
Caba $3M
Bergolla $2.05M
De La Cruz, $10K?, broke out last season
Rincones 3rd rd
McFarlane 4th rd
Estanista $10K
Escobar $450K
Boyd 11th rd
Pouaka-Grego $250K
Viars 3rd rd
Wen-Hui $350K
Kerkering 5th rd
Rincon 14th
Brito $10K?
Cabrera $10K
Pineda $10K?

andyb 2023-04-06 17:28:43 UTC #245

I am just not sure what that list means. Of course the lower level prospects are the higher draft picks and the ones with tools. That is why they were picked or signed. They are also generally younger meaning they have not had as much of a chance to succeed or fail yet. Your definition of a "trend" in the Phillies system is the definition of just about every organization's prospect list.

The fact is we have fewer high dollar Latin American signings than other organizations because we have the big market pool and are consistently losing international allocations because of free agents. And we have not done a great job of developing them the past 5 years.

This is a below average system that is top loaded. Yes we take chances on toolsy international players, but other organizations do that too. There is just no reason to suspect we are way above average in doing that. When one considers tools in a prospect list one also considers projection and risk. A low level prospect (especially not the million dollar ones) by definition has lots of projection and risk.

By saying the system is weighted towards these risky low level prospects you are actually kind of admitting the system is below average. Painter and Abel and McGarry probably provide close to half our prospect value in the system. Painter alone provides much of that.

allentown 2023-04-06 18:23:24 UTC #246

To me, it's a knock on our LA scouting. Big bonus guys like Ortiz and Yhoswar Garcia miss the list. Yhoswar apparently healthy and starting in extended ST. For a guy his age, the kiss of career death. Bergolla and Caba our only large bonus LA guys to make the list. A sign of improvement, or recentcy bias? Yes, I made up that word. We probably are below average in # of large LA bonuses, but Ortiz was $4 million and Yhoswar $2.5 million. Someone doesn't know what he's doing.

Austinfan 2023-04-06 19:59:54 UTC #247

The fact that we're not doing bad with low money LA prospects suggests development is not the problem, we seem to be able to turn marginal pitching prospects into guys who at least perform at AA or even AAA, even if most don't make the show. Though we haven't done the same with position players so far. And we've done fine with draft picks like O'Hoppe, Veirling, Maton, etc. even if we ended up trading them.

At least we stopped blowing 1st rd picks, if we could just hit on a few LA bonus babies!

allentown 2023-04-06 20:09:20 UTC #248

Exactly, but I must comment that just because we seem to be doing well in developing pitching doesn't mean that we should assume that this naturally translates into doing well in developing hitters. Apples and oranges and entirely different coaches. We are not doing especially well in developing LA hitters, neither marginal prospects nor big bonus guys. So,the problem could be scouting or development, or both. It certainly suggests that we spend more on pitching prospects, where we have had some success. We absolutely stink at evaluating and signing big $ LA prospects. Even the basic administrative work of knowing how old your top $ guy actually is or at least negotiating a reduced bonus after you learn you've been conned come up as abysmal failures. Other organizations have had LA embarrassments, but they have been of the getting caught cheating variety rather than the just plain incompetence variety. This entire Phillies upper level management organization has been turned over multiple times, with the exception of Sal. What gives?

Austinfan 2023-04-06 20:22:36 UTC #249

The reason I bring up O'Hoppe, Maton and Vierling, is three later picks who made it to the show, similar to low to medium bonus LA players (though older picks). So while development may have had some issues, it's hard to blame development for the complete failure to develop LA position players - not just to the show, but until recently, how many started in Reading and Lehigh (now we have Ortiz, De La Cruz, Muzzioti, Marchan, Rojas).

andyb 2023-04-06 20:26:50 UTC #250

Where is the evidence that we are doing well with low dollar signings? Compared to other organizations we are average at best. Obviously on the pitching side there are going to be 16-year-olds where it is hard to know how they project. We get a few of them. Great. But your posts keep insisting that we do great at that and there is just no evidence of that. Our 27th and 30th best prospects on the MLB list (Estanista and Segura) are the only sub $100K arms on our top 30.

Where are our great low dollar prospects? It is just not a strategy and there really is not much evidence that we are very good at it.

allentown 2023-04-06 21:38:37 UTC #251

DelaCruz is draft, not LA. Muzziotti was signed by another organization and granted FA. I don't count them.

To AndyB -- I guess we do roughly average on low-$ LA pitcher signings and atrociously bad on high-$ position player signings. Maybe, and it's my hope that, Caba and Bergolla represent a turnaround, but it's too early to tell if they will develop into anything and, honestly, they got their place on the list do to the size of their bonus and pre-signing-period lists, which can be strongly influenced by one team being very hot on a guy and willing to spend big.

andyb 2023-04-06 22:07:56 UTC #252

The answer of course is we need to do better with our high dollar signings. Both in identifying and developing them. It is not a strategy to concentrate on low dollar talent. We should always be on the lookout for that, but the goal is really to sign the most talent available for the few available slots we have each year. Now I am fine going under slot on some draft picks to add a few more higher ceiling talents later. And I actually would prefer to sign 4 players in the $500K-$700K range as opposed to 1 in the $2 million range (Bergolla and Caba). I just don't think we ever get great value at that price range.

One high note in that article - Wen Hui Pan - Pan sat 92-94 during international competition and would reach back for the occasional 95-96 mph fastball, but during the spring of 2023, he was more 96-98 while topping out at 99 mph.

He does not have much projection left, but we may have caught a $300K guy turning into something a bit more talented. In a shocking turn I actually trust our Asian scouts more than our Latin American scouts lately especially if you include Australia (Mead and NPG).

fish 2023-04-07 00:17:51 UTC #253

I had to check who the Phillies scout is in Australia these days, and it’s the legendary Howie Norsetter- he famously tried to sue the twins for age discrimination after he was fired as their international scouting director. He signed Liam Hendricks, Grant Balfour, Justin Morneau (when he also had to scout Canada), recommended David Ortiz, and joined the Phillies the year they signed Curtis Meade (I don’t know if Norsetter gets credit for that).

andyb 2023-05-14 13:16:15 UTC #254

Early season updates:

Patchmk88 2023-05-14 13:42:07 UTC #255

Interesting read from Matt. Some definite positives (I think out weighing the negatives). I still don’t get the sense that we have potential stud prospects outside of the three pitchers, but definitely looking like more potential major league pieces than in the past.

andyb 2023-05-16 17:10:52 UTC #256

Minor refresh on the MLB.com top 100. Painter down from 2 to 12. Abel at 38. No new faces (McGarry or Lee would be the most likely).

Austinfan 2023-05-16 17:42:53 UTC #257

McGarry is rehabbing, Lee is up and down.
Muzzioti has been the best performing Phillies prospect so far this season.
Wilson also shining, but only 80 PA so far.

phillychuck 2023-05-16 17:59:37 UTC #258

Repeating a post here for visibility...

OK, Just for fun, here is my early season all-prospect team by position. Mostly guys I would love to see continue to do well. A personal list, not based on top-prospect lists: (alternates with a *)

C--Caleb Ricketts, JS: 954 OPS at CLW, Hitting almost .300 at JS
1B--Carlos De la Cruz Reading: .509 SLG at Reading, looks good defensively at 1B
1B*--Rixon Wingrove, JS: 874 OPS at JS is nothing to sneeze at, even for a LHB
2B--Hao Yu Lee, JS: .405 OBP ất Jerseey Shore in a pitcher's environment
SS--William Bergolla, Rookie League: (no stats yet)
SS*--Casey Martin, JS: 777 OPS for the defensive wizard, but he's a senior citizen in A+ ball
3B--Otto Kemp, CLW: 880 OPS, but old for the league [Drew Ellis, Matt Kroon, and Nick Ward are all playing well, Ellis especially with a +1000 OPS in 10 games at Reading, but all appear to be career minor league type players]
LF--Simon Muzziotti, LV: 962 OPS with a .395 AVG, I'm not happy he's playing so much LF
RF--Ethan Wilson, Reading: 1010 OPS is encouraging even though the sample size is small
CF--Justin Crawford, CLW: 757 OPS, but patience and power are still developing

Pitching...(top 3 guys are all either missing (Painter, McGarry) or inconsistent(Abel))
RHSP--Alex MacFarlane, CLW: AM has 31 Ks in only 22 innings so far.
LHSP--Samuel Aldegheri, CLW: 30 Ks in 21 IP against only 6 walks
[starting pitching prospects are scarce right now above low-A]

RHRP-- Orion Kierkering, JS: 19 Ks and 2 BBs in 12 innings actross two levels
RHRP--Jack Dallas, CLW: 0.44 ERA with 23 Ks in 20 IP; they might be stretching him out to start
RHRP--Brett Schulze, Reading: 21 Ks and only 4 BBs, a few too many HRs early
LHRP--Wesley Moore, CLW: 26 Ks and 6 BBs in 15 IPs with a 0.60 ERA
LHRP--Jordi Martinez, JS: 17 Ks in 14 IP with good control
RHP(no designation)--Wen Hui Pan, CLW: 19Ks in 17 IP with one ER allowed.

Comments welcome!! Who are your "wanna-see" guys?

andyb 2023-05-16 18:25:05 UTC #259

Here are some more additions to the list. Hey, if we are going to highlight Casey Martin it probably opens the door for Jhailyn Ortiz. This is sort of a prospect list of prospects (probably at least in our top 50) who are at least meeting midline expectations.

RF Jhailyn Ortiz - complete change in BB/K ratio after DFA and then brief few weeks in Clearwater.
CF Johan Rojas - 761 OPS. Solid defense. Remember he is probably a major leaguer with a 650-700 OPS
2B Oliver Dunn - minor league rule 5 hitting at Reading (859 OPS)
OF Marcus Lee Sang - Does a lot of good things even though the K rate is too high
3B Kendall Simmons - 1000+ OPS probably too little too late, but that Casey Martin door was opened....
CF Emaarion Boyd - 20 SB already. See Rojas comment
OF Gabriel Rincones - A level too low, but he is raking and running better than advertisec
C Jordan Dissin - Under the radar catcher at Clearwater
SS Starlyn Caba - See Bergolla rank. Is hitting in the DSL scrimmages we see

RHP Mick Abel - Top line stats are not great, but the stuff has improved and he is just really young. He is meeting expectations even if it feels like he is not moving forward
RHP Andrew Baker - Bad outing clouds the stats but he is touching 100 again and missing bats
RHP Tyler Phillips - Quietly good season returning from lots of injuries.
Honorable mention Tommy McCollum, Jaydenn Estanista and Jean Cabrera. Stuff without huge results so far. Probably could throw Noah Skirrow in there as good AAAA depth from a prospect.

Pitching is definitely thinner among prospects having good years. Part of that is we just don't throw anyone out there for many innings. From looking at these lists one might be inclined to go pitcher with our top pick if we have a choice. The fragility of our top 3 this year just suggests one can never have enough and we really are not going after too much pitching in Latin America lately.

Austinfan 2023-05-16 20:44:05 UTC #260

It's just so early, especially for pitchers.
And I think they've held a bunch of guys back for XST who may end up in Clearwater in a couple months after the draft and if they want to promote a few DSL guys.

andyb 2023-05-16 20:59:52 UTC #261

The pitching progress is just less good than on the hitting side, no matter how you spin it. We have not really held back any healthy pitchers who are seen as top prospects. Enrique Segura has not pitched yet but he is probably the best. Pan was the top international pitcher from last time and he is one of our top prospect stories.

We need pitching depth. It is not because we are holding them back. We are just really thin after the top 3 plus Pan and McFarlane. We have some relievers after that but there are not many pitchers that look like starter candidates. There is also nothing to suggest our DSL pitchers from the last couple of years are anything special. We spent most of the bonuses on position players. Pan looks special. Everyone else is a longshot.

Austinfan 2023-05-16 22:58:40 UTC #262

A number of pitchers are coming back off TJ surgery, might take half a season to know what we've got.

andyb 2023-05-19 17:05:05 UTC #263

Revised list from Fangraphs:

Painter - 13
Abel - 24
McGarry - 110

Also, Ben Brown enters at 87. Logan O'Hoppe did not play enough so still there at 53. Curtis Mead at 26.

Bowden with notes on Kerkering and Ricketts. He thinks Ricketts has a shot to be the eventual Realmuto replacement though his defense is raw. Also a small note on Lee from Law. Likes the bat, questions the power.