Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

allentown 2023-02-08 17:04:35 UTC #183

Absolutely true on both points. My point on injuries was that they delayed Hamel's development. Without them he could have had two more major league seasons at the start of his career. That's why Painter a better pitcher going into age 20 season than Hamels was. Also why we have reason to hope for an even better MLB career for Painter. As you say, injuries to a pitcher can strike at any time and they can totally derail a career. As great as Cole was for us in his prime, his W-L is only 163-122 with a 3.43 ERA. FIP of 3.68, That's a solid #2, but not an ace. Painter, if he can stay healthy, has a chance to be an ace. The Phillies really need that, just as they need Abel or McGarry to approach what Hamels accomplished for us.

Philsmania 2023-02-08 19:07:46 UTC #184

And, he could have had a more HOF-worthy resume. Just like signing Bell and moving Polanco to second delayed Utley's career by at least a year. 2004 should have been his first full season.

Austinfan 2023-02-08 20:12:55 UTC #185

Hamels also had a relatively slight frame, and didn't bring the heat.
He was your crafty LH pitcher, FB 92-93, Cutter 90, Changeup 83.
Threw a 2 seamer more later in his career, and flashed a curve.
Sorta like Ranger, relying more on command and mixing up pitches than power.

Painter has a chance to be a crafty fireballer, 94-96 and probably a couple MPH more in 3-4 years as he fills out his frame, with 2-3 potential plus secondary pitches. Slider, curve and the key pitch for him will be to develop a changeup to play off his FB and fade away from LH hitters.

andyb 2023-02-08 20:24:03 UTC #186

For his time Cole was seen as having a very good fastball. In his prime he sat more 93-94 and touched the mid 90s consistently. His curve was pretty mediocre much of his career but his change was good enough that he did not need it much.

If Painter is successful it won't be because he is crafty. He'll be in the top 5 percentile of starters with velocity. He is interesting in that he really does not have a hard slider. He has a relatively soft slider that might be too close in velocity to his curve. I think his key will be much more in developing that 3rd pitch that is effective at an in between velocity.

If he does not have that hard slider I would not be shocked if they dropped his slider and worked more on a cutter which is what they like to do with their hard throwing relievers. Painter will hopefully be a crafty pitcher, but he is going to be known as a power pitcher.

Austinfan 2023-02-08 21:07:35 UTC #187

The slider is slow enough they may chuck the curve b/c he will struggle throwing a 12/6 curve from 3/4 slot.
Cutter makes sense in that case, in the low 90s with the 4 and two seamers in the mid to upper 90s.
But the changeup is the pitch that would make him elite, a good changeup for a power pitcher is almost unhittable.
Key is not to have a "tell," so the hitter has to commit before he sees the lack of spin.

Matt_Winkelman 2023-02-08 21:09:51 UTC #188

They aren't chucking the slider or the curveball, please read the column. Both pitches are by design, including the curve and slider being in the same velocity band.

andyb 2023-02-08 21:18:15 UTC #189

I realize they are not doing that now. It is an entirely different question as to whether he will have major league success with that approach. I just think it is common after a few years to junk one breaking ball if it is too close to another. I get they have different movement characteristics and that might allow him to keep both. If his change also develops in that middle velocity range it might obviate the need to have a harder slider.

Your piece is great. I just am wary about concluding too much on secondary pitches that he has not had to use much so far since he has not needed them much.

Matt_Winkelman 2023-02-08 21:34:48 UTC #190

I am concluding it based on intentional usage and theories proven at the major league level with other pitchers. They intentionally moved Painter, Abel, and McGarry to sweepers for their sliders. Most fireballers through harder gyro sliders, but it is not all. Ohtani uses the sweeper style slider. Abel also has the same sort of curveball blending into slider velocity range thing, and because of the characteristics of a sweeper, there is room for a curveball because sweepers are much more horizontal in movement. For McGarry given the lower, flatter delivery they added a cutter in behind the sweeper.

You are treating the secondary pitches like they are some high schooler coming in, and not that the same sort of pitch and arsenal design people that brought you the arsenal redesigns of major league pitchers would not be doing this with the minor league guys, especially since Painter works with Cressey who has two breaking ball aces in Verlander and Scherzer. What you will actually see based on other observed practices of high level pitchers is that you start to see two distinct arsenals develop when they face lefties or righties. For example, Nola exchanges a large portion of changeup usage for cutter usage vs RHBs, but does not throw the cutter to lefties. Or that Wheeler almost exclusively uses 4-seamers and sliders vs LHBs, but a mix of sinkers and 4-seamers and less sliders vs RHBs.

Completely gone are the days of just throw up in the zone, they are crafting pitches and arsenals to fit the pitcher's strengths and weaknesses. In the case of Andrew Painter, it designs off of an elite rising fastball and a tall lanky delivery.

andyb 2023-02-08 21:49:35 UTC #191

I just caution that they know less about how well these pitches will work against good hitters since his track record is so short. There just is not much data yet. I am sure he will have different mixes and approaches for left-handed and right-handed batters as virtually all major league pitchers do.

It is both great and worrisome that he has not really had to use many of his secondary pitches to get hitters out. I hope the Phillies' plan works and there is some logic to it. But most 25-year-old pitchers are very different than their 19-year-old versions. I'd like to see more of the 2 different breaking balls against good major league hitters before deciding that is the right approach. Many pitchers have deemphasized something like that over time. A simpler arsenal can sometimes be better if one of the pitches is not adding much.

Austinfan 2023-02-08 21:51:28 UTC #192

How's his two seamer?

When Nola is at his best, the two seamer is his primary weapon, he can break in on a RH's hands or paint the outside corner and freeze him. And use it against LHs away.

Against LHs, the two seamer with a sharp break and a changeup that fades down and away are key pitches.

The problem I see with the curve in general is that few pitchers can consistently throw one for strikes or close to strikes, and if you hang that sucker, it'll need flashing lights to protect low flying aircraft. If you can't throw it where it looks like a srike, good hitters have time to adjust and lay off it. The hard slider works b/c the hitter has to commit before he sees the break - Carlton made a living throwing those suckers into the dirt.

The problem I see with Painter and Abel is it often takes young pitchers 3-4 years to refine their secondary pitches even after reaching the Show, give them too many to work on, and sometimes you end up with a portfolio of mediocre stuff.

Matt_Winkelman 2023-02-08 22:14:38 UTC #193

He doesn't throw one. Painter's 4-seamers has elite levels of rise due to tilt and spin (on par with Gerrit Cole) and he gets good extension on it (for obvious size reasons). Essentially, Painter's 4-seam fastball projects statistically to be one the best in baseball, so there isn't really need right now for a second fastball. It plays up insanely well up because it is pretty much impossible to get on plane with so when combined with the rise it is a bunch of weak fly ball contact. I also think there is something hidden or secret in the interaction between his height and the pitch movement that makes it especially hard to hit up in the zone. He can hit the top corners of the zone with it. Down in the zone, the movement profile plays well, but not as good, and so that is where you do see the changeup. The curveball is actually a short break path, so it comes off the fastball location and lands for a strike, and he does throw it for a strike. In the case of hard vs soft slider. The fastball and slider come out of the same pitch tunnel, and because of the sweep on the slider he throws it about 20 inches horizontal of the fastball, but for a strike. As I wrote, that is why he throws them up in the zone. This is different than say Wheeler or deGrom's hard slider, which has more drop and comes in like a fastball with that hard cut. Painter's slider functions by being 13 mph different than the fastball and 20 inches over and about 20 inches down from the fastball tunnel, so while you have more time to commit (though maybe not given the tunnel) you have to essentially go from 98 inside to getting to the outside of the plate.

Austinfan 2023-02-08 23:00:25 UTC #194

Thanks.

Though I'd like to see him develop a two seamer, though down the road, it's a good complement to a rising four seamer b/c the velo is often the same, the arm motion is the same, but the movement is so different.

In the case of Painter, a 2 seamer would be a change of pace to move the batter's eyes, not a bread and butter pitch. Bringing a 4 seamer down in the zone negates its biggest strength. We see this with Nola, where the two seamer has been the bread and butter, but developing a four seamer allows him to attack the top of the zone and move the batter's eyes.

However, refining Painter's changeup would be a much higher priority right now, it's a must pitch to deal with ML LH hitters.

I do think the cutter makes sense down the road for this reason, you want to change speeds along a spectrum as well as eye level, Colon was the most infuriating pitcher to watch b/c he basically threw FBs but would vary the speed from 85 to 95 and drive hitters crazy - you'd watch those pitches and wonder why they couldn't square up on him, but he was so good at keeping hitters off balance just by changing speeds.

So if the FB is in the mid to high 90s, and his other pitches are in the mid-80s, something in-between would help to disrupt hitter's timing and keep them from sitting on off-speed stuff if he's struggling with FB command.

EDmuch 2023-02-08 23:50:05 UTC #195

I am in favor of letting Cotham sort this out. He seems to know what he is doing

zambonir 2023-02-09 00:14:50 UTC #196

Or, as Matt mentioned, Cressey

fish 2023-02-09 15:18:24 UTC #197

This discussion is morphing away from the thread topic, but seeing the intentional use of high sliders the last 2 seasons has been a really interesting development. I think I noticed it the most (anecdotally anyway) with Jose Alvarado while simultaneously seeing it from Painter in the minors. Your brain is trained from past 'norms' to think its a mistake, but for some it's clearly a trend. For Painter it makes sense in the context of slotting with his 4 seamer and curve.

This article seems to be a bit of an incomplete evaluation, but concludes the effectiveness of high sliders is in part because they are more likely to be called a strike than a low slider, and the element of surprise.

Austinfan 2023-02-09 21:50:12 UTC #198

I think you'd have to look at the break, a high slider with a sharp break is just a good pitch located high in the zone, a hanging slider, a pitch meant to break low and out of the zone that doesn't break and stays in the middle of the strike zone is a different animal altogether.

andyb 2023-02-19 13:17:23 UTC #199

One more list - the rare one that likes Crawford a bit more.

Fangraphs and MLB.com still to come.

allentown 2023-02-19 18:15:12 UTC #200

This is a very discouraging list. Only Painter and Abel listed as having an overall future potential as better than average major league players. Only Painter listed as All Star potential. Abel's potential down-graded since last year. Beyond that, only Crawford, McGarry, and Rojas listed with an OFP of an average major leaguer and all listed as high risk. I can't really disagree with this assessment, but not encouraging. DeLa Cruz is #10 with OFP two slots below average major leaguer, presumably with high risk. He is lower than most on Lee, and his higher rating of Crawford seems largely based on potential if he becomes something other than a no-power slap hitter, so assuming he masters a completely new hitting stroke.

Austinfan 2023-02-20 15:07:01 UTC #201

Don't care about lists this season. Two years from now, yes.

This is the third? season of the Dombrowski overhaul, I think 2nd season for Mattingly, so we should start seeing results at the A ball level, that is, we should see "underrated" players emerging and rapidly rising through the system and ending the year in Reading as real prospects - that's what happens when you have improved scouting and development.

It'll still take 2-3 more years to make a major impact at the ML level, but the first signs should be apparent IF they've really improved the system. The Dodgers aren't buying minor leaguers, they're making them.

If they're still a bottom ten system in two years - FAIL. If they're top ten, SUCCESS.

allentown 2023-02-20 15:09:25 UTC #202

A very interesting Athletic article aimed at Painter, but tells a lot about Fuld and Kaplan. Shouldn't Kaplan take a couple weeks in Latin America to review all the kids on Sal's list of potential pitching signees among those younger than this year's signing age but on the radar?