Hey there are some risky relievers and some teenage DSL arms in there! Otherwise that is about how it felt to write it.
Matt you have been doing this for a bunch of years now. Has anyone deep in your rankings (30+) ever made the majors and if so were they anything more than a quick cup of coffee?
I bet somebody like Matt Vierling was at the back end of the ratings if ranked at all after his first couple of seasons. Ranger Suarez was probably unranked after his 3 VSL seasons even though the last one was his famous 1 BB in 80 IP year.
There are lots of back end prospects that make the majors. Stars are rare, but substantial contributors happen more than one would think.
As andyb said there is natural matriculation up the ranks, so I have been going to 50 since 2015 and this will only capture the ranked, not anyone unranked, I have included the 30+ rank+year and their highest ranking+year. I also just sometimes miss.
2015: Rhys Hoskins (#37->#12 2017), Edubray Ramos (#38->#26 2016), Adam Morgan (#45<-#2 2013), Brandon Leibrandt (#48)
2016: Dylan Cozens (#31->#13 2017), Luke Williams (#36), Bailey Falter (#42->#14 2021), Tyler Gilbert (#46)
2017: Victor Arano (#31<-#14 2015), Ben Lively (#32<-#11 2015), Jesmuel Valentin (#33<-#22 2015), Deivi Grullon (#34<-#15 2015), Cole Irvin (#37->#17 2018), Francisco Morales (#38->#3 2020), Joely Rodriguez (#41<-#24 2015), Mauricio Llovera (#44->#16 2019), Edgar Garcia (#49)
2018: Jesmuel Valentin (#32<-#22 2015), Bailey Falter (#34->#14 2021), Dylan Cozens (#35<-#13 2017), Edgar Garcia (#37), J.D. Hammer (#41), Dalton Guthrie (#49->#18 2023)
2019: Matt Vierling (#34->#9 2022), Nick Maton (#35->#11 2021), Edgar Garcia (#36), Cole Irvin (#37<-#17 2018), Bailey Falter (#41->#14 2021), Drew Anderson (#46->#24 2018)
2020: Cole Irvin (#32<-#17 2018), Connor Brogdon (#40->#18 2021)
2021: Cristopher Sanchez (#31<-#16 2020), James McArthur (#32->#21 2022), Ramon Rosso (#37), Ben Brown* (#40), Luke Williams (#54), Mauricio Llovera (#55<-#16 2019)
2022: Ben Brown* (#46), JoJo Romero (#47<#7 2019)
2023: James McArthur (#41<-#21 2022)
2024: Michael Mercado (#31)
*Ben Brown would have been top 10 at 2022 midseason if I used actual numbers
Ranger Suarez for example went unranked in 2017, #25 by midseason, #18 in 2018, #14 in 2019
Something that I sort of danced around because they aren't real games and I have to do the tracking by hand and there are no stats is that we have DSL and a couple FCL instruct games. So I have like 4 Angel Liranzo unofficial games and 2-3 Pacheco games, some extra Burkholder PAs, another half dozen Ferrebus games, as well as some other guys where we have very limited actual games.
It is great that Pacheco's stuff looked good in those games. Guessing the midlevel ranking is more about the mush in the middle of the rankings than anything else of course. I imagine we are getting a better feel for DSL competition these days with the revised roster rules making most organizations leave midlevel international prospects down there for an extra year or two. Competition level is much closer to FCL/GCL these days than it was previously.
It is the mush in the middle, I would feel more comfortable with him closer to 30. For pitching I am looking a little less at the competition, though it is worrying if they aren't missing bats in the DSL, I am looking more at what the stuff looks like. So in Pacheco I see a guy where the fastball shape passes the eye test and he sits 91-95 with some future possible velocity growth. The delivery looks fine and while I don't always love a big breaking curve as the only breaking ball, it does fit the fastball movement well. The changeup is extremely raw, but I did see ones that show there is something there. Overall, he was more advanced than the other DSL arms and was probably equivalent to a mid-late draft day 2 high school pitcher.
Getting closer to the top. Wondering a little who is 5th (unless we are still ranking Caba since this might have been written before the trade). Painter, Miller, Crawford, Tait, ???
Caba would have been 3, but he and Boyd were not written yet at time of trade. The name you are missing is actually ranked 3rd on this list.
Updated BA Top 100
Andrew Painter is 9
Aidan Miller is 36
Eduardo Tait is 93
Justin Crawford is 96
FYI Caba is 72
Rather have Tait than Caba, though Crawford and Caba are probably a wash.
My breakout candidates:
Johnson, 2 years from TJ
Abel, doubt he's totally lost it.
Mendez, has the eye to hand coordination, fix his swing and . ..
Nori, same, fix his swing to get more pop
Graves, frame and age where a jump in velocity could result in a big improvement
I'm not sure you can teach a young hitter how to hit breaking balls or develop real plate discipline, I suspect a lot of that is innate, the ability to see spin and the eye to hand coordination to adjust in real time.
Same with command, most of those high velocity/poor command pitchers have failed to improve.
Command is probably related to another innate talent, body control, which relates to consistent mechanics and not developing a "tell" on some pitches.
wow so without that trade the Phiillies would have had 5 in the top 100. When was the last time that happened
And Fangraphs has 'the name you are missing' at #3, also. They are higher on our pitchers and lower on our position players than most lists.
There is some thought they are just bad at pitching development. Here is the guy they traded for Eflin (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=baumei000jac7). They have sort of the old style of Astros pitching with piggy backs and not having guys really work on pitching.