Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[Philsmania]

If the Phillies hadn't traded Mead for Sanchez, would Mead still have developed with the crack development staff the Phillies had at the time as opposed to the Rays' state-of-the-art operation? Yes, the Phillies have overhauled things but would it have been too late for him?

[gmwannabe]

can you imagine having 4 in the top 100. Glory Be! it would have been something. Mead mike make it to the show this year.
gm

[kmc1019]

GM - that's how long the Phillies system has been awful. Every team should naturally have 3-4 prospects in the Top 100 every year just based on random distribution. Our expectations have been beaten down to be irrationally low.

[xogfog]

I have to say, I might be most excited about seeing Painter in spring training.

[gmwannabe]

kmc, I will be as well. the same excitement that I had when I heard that Hamels was going to pitch against the Yankees that year in spring training. they televised it on TV and he struck out the side (Jeter, Rodgriguez and someone else I think). tremendous change up. what a showing.
gm

[andyb]

Part of me is thinking that Painter will be really important to our playoff chances and wondering if we should start him a month late if he is ready for the majors so we don't run into his innings limit (120-130?) too much.

I assume they will take a similar approach to last year if he makes the major league team by giving him a few weeks off midseason and then ramping him up again for a few starts.

[Austinfan]

I'm not sure he'll have a innings limit, they plan to carefully monitor him and note any signs of fatigue.

Given he pitched 100 inning last year, is working out to build strength and stamina, they may just throw him as much as he can without showing fatigue, such as dropping his arm angle, etc. The smart thing is focusing on "tells" instead of velocity, since often pitchers subconsciously start to throw harder when velocity drop (which is why command often goes before velocity when a pitcher has a tired arm).

[zambonir]

There will be much to consider but first he actually has to do it in spring training. As much as it seems like the Phillies are eager to hand him the job if he's just slightly less than very good it's also very easy to justify starting him in AAA, if a bit tricky in terms of not wanting him to burn innings there.

And yes he will probably have an innings limit - but also no way to know what that is until he hits it, which by definition means they have to have one in mind. If he blows past it and looks fine doing it, great.

[andyb]

Pretty sure they have implied in interviews that Painter will have an innings limit, though as Z said, it will not really be known to Painter and somewhat flexible. Guessing they will also treat major league innings a bit different than minor league innings. Possibly they could use him as a 6th starter to keep the entire rotation pitching on 5 days rest, being skipped a few times when there is an off day and the 6th starter is not needed.

[allentown]

I don't think they'll let him throw 180 IP, Probably a limit of 140-150 IP.

[zambonir]

Well, Wheeler and Ranger only hit 153.1 and 155 last season. So that can be done fairly easily (with enforced rest rather than injury we'd hope - though in both cases the DL stints seemed to be a grey area). But the playoffs would be another issue.

[phillychuck]

I'd personally like to see his innings limit set around 120 rather than close to 150...that would require very intelligent monitoring of his workload if they want him available late in the season into a possible post-season.

[andyb]

Inquirer (Lauber) posts their top 10 here. There is another article on Lee up there too.

Phillies prospect rankings: Farm system is heavy on impact pitching, lacking...

Painter
Abel
McGarry
Crawford
Rojas
Lee

Big Gap

McFarlane
Muzziotti
Wilson
Rincones

Not sure I want Wilson anywhere near my top 10 after last season.

After Hao Yu Lee’s eye-catching first full season as a professional, several rival talent evaluators believe the buzz is about to align with the talent. https://t.co/h2g2YIQkIC

— The Philadelphia Inquirer ( @PhillyInquirer ) January 18, 2023

[zambonir]

I'd personally like to see his innings limit set around 120 rather than close to 150...that would require very intelligent monitoring of his workload if they want him available late in the season into a possible post-season.

But how do you really make that work unless you just figure he's a post-season relief pitcher in advance? If you actually want him to take the ball as a starter in September and October he needs to be on a pretty consistent schedule. And he can't be a four-inning pitcher all year.

But time will tell. Hope he makes it impossible (or rather, easy) for the Phillies in Clearwater first.

[allentown]

They need to control his IP, including playoffs. This is the start of what we hope will be a long and great career in Philly -- the next Hamels. You don't risk that by pitching him too many innings. I think he should be able to expand beyond 120 IP, but there needs to be a limit and his pitches per game need to be carefully controlled. He's still very young. Why risk blowing out his arm?

[bkeich]

I hate to jinx it, but you can't hold a guy out at the start of the season as a means to limit his innings, simply because injuries happen. If you start pajnter late you risk him getting hurt and having a lost season.

To me it makes more sense to just hard limit him to 4-5IP per outing, that way you can get 25-30 starts from him and (if we are really lucky) he is still available in September / October.

[fish]

Doesn't seem to hard to modify the routine that worked for him last year and end the regular season at around 150 innings. He pitched once a week, had a couple week break mid season, and a lot of shorter starts up until half way through the season. He finished at 100 innings, figure he makes 4-5 starts for the longer season (~30 innings), and extend the eleven 3-4 inning stints last year to 5 or 6 innings this year (22 innings) and you get to 150 without making it too complicated.

[allentown]

Doesn't seem to hard to modify the routine that worked for him last year and end the regular season at around 150 innings

But ending the season at 150 IP is too much if you want him to pitch in the post-season. 150 IP should be a hard limit for the year, including post-season. A 50% increase in IP is a significant jump for such a young pitcher. 140 IP is probably a better target, since it's likely to take more pitches per inning than it did in the minors.

[Austinfan]

Meh. I think it's less about workload than monitoring fatigue, he's not some skinny 19 year old, between genes and a good conditioning program he's probably physically ahead of many 22-23 year olds.

It's more important to focus on his mechanics, signs of fatigue, and avoiding overwork in any one game where he develops bad mechanics due to fatigue. I think if handled carefully he could pitch 200 innings, as long as you don't let him pitch tired - you need experience to know how to adjust when you arm is tired so to avoid excess stress on your shoulder, etc.

If he maintains good mechanics, a lot of the power comes from his legs, which is why a well designed off-season conditioning program is important - and that's why the Phillies have invested money into both trainers and video to analyze bio-mechanics.

Painter has command of four pitches, he's not some kid who basically has a plus FB and little else and will try just to blow it by every hitter. And has an experienced catcher who can tell when he's falling into that rut, and force him to use his secondary pitches.

[allentown]

Meh. I think it's less about workload than monitoring fatigue, he's not some skinny 19 year old, between genes and a good conditioning program he's probably physically ahead of many 22-23 year olds.

You may think he's as ready to not have his IP limited as a 23-year old, but the FACTS are that he won't turn 20 until early April and has thrown less than 110 professional IP and last year's 103 IP are his maximum. He is the top pitching prospect in baseball and the best prospect the Phillies have had in years. You don't risk the health of guys like that by increasing their IP by 50+% in their age 20 season. That is simply malpractice, regardless of how experienced a catcher he has.

He is kind of a skinny kid. He's got substantial weight, but he's also 6'-7".