Post-season Prospect Lists

andyb 2017-09-29 16:55:09 UTC #21

Sixto number one in the SAL:

Also on the list: Medina and Moniak. No double list for Jojo or other entries though Hall was their league MVP.

andyb 2017-09-29 16:58:27 UTC #22

Have not listened to the podcast yet but Jordan saying lots of good things about Ortiz:

bigegypt0417 2017-09-29 17:14:22 UTC #23

I know Jordan can exaggerate a little but watching the limited amount of film on Ortiz makes me think he's right on this one.

kmc1019 2017-09-29 17:32:04 UTC #24

Could be total wishful thinking and organizational propaganda, but Jordan compares Moniak's late season collapse with the awful end to 2016 experienced by Kingery - and look what happened with the latter the following year. Granted, Kingery's poor end to 2016 coincided with promotion to a higher level, which was not the case with Moniak. Anyway, if you are looking for something optimistic to say about Moniak, Joe Jordan is the guy to listen to.

Austinfan 2017-09-29 18:09:58 UTC #25

The fact that Hall couldn't make a top 20 list tells me how useless they are, I mean he ripped up a league playing in one of the least hitter friendly parks in the minor leagues.
He didn't turn 22 until late July, so he wasn't an overage college player, either.
He's a LH 1B, so he punches that button for a power hitter.
But he was a 14th rd pick from a small college. Unlike Pavin Smith, who was the 8th pick, who is 7 months younger and had 0 HRs in high rookie ball.
Hall last year in high rookie ball had 9 HRs and an .890 OPS.
Now Hall has flaws, he needs to improve his plate discipline, but he cut back on his K rate the second half, so he is learning.

Hall got overlooked probably for two reasons:
1) his junior season was his only major college year, and Dallas Baptist is not a major program
2) he also started 16 games that season for Dallas Baptist, which explains why he "only" had a 1.048 OPS despite a relatively low BABIP of .307.

Though maybe we should have known we were drafting "The Natural" -

Heading into this season University of New Mexico was a Top 25 team, then they ran into the buzzsaw that was Darick Hall who went 5 for 5 with 2 homers and Pitched 5 innings to pick up the win in a ... wait for it ... 33-8 win.

andyb 2017-09-29 18:27:50 UTC #26

Hall is like Hoskins in that he is a little bit older than his competition and has little defensive value. The fact that he did not make a top 20 list in a large prospect-laden league does not mean the lists are useless. It means much more that even an 890 OPS is not that impressive from a 22-year-old 1B in Low A.

We basically got lucky with Hoskins beating the odds. We got lucky 15 years ago with Howard in a somewhat similar situation though Howard at least at one point in college was considered to have had first round talent before a disappointing junior season.

It is just a painful reality that most good college prospects, especially ones at weak defensive positions, skip Low A ball entirely. When they don't one needs to evaluate their stats with a grain of reality that they might be overperforming against younger and less experienced competition.

andyb 2017-09-29 18:49:47 UTC #27

Chat question:
John (Philadelphia): Was Nick Fanti considered for the top 20, and is he more deception than actual stuff?

J.J. Cooper: A whole lot of Lakewood players were in Top 20 consideration, but Arquimedes Gamboa, Daniel Brito and JoJo Romero were much closer to the 20 than Fanti. The general thought among evaluators is that Fanti kept LoA hitters off balance thanks to craftiness, a decent breaking ball and changeup but a below-average fastball. There's some skepticism if that approach will work at higher levels.

Interesting that they allude that Romero was in contention for this list like the FSL but just did not make it. Part of the reason is larger Low A leagues (16 and 14 teams) but another part is that Low A leagues just have more prospects with all the best International and HS prospects (who together comprise a majority of the top 100 prospects, probably 70% of them in any one year) get sent to Low A.

Gamboa and Brito being considered is a good sign that their defensive value and age makes them prospects even if the offense is a step behind.

Austinfan 2017-09-29 21:36:27 UTC #28

But that isn't true.
Players have different trajectories, depending on team philosophy and their readiness.
Senzel is the fastest mover the last two years, 10 games in rookie, then A ball, this year A+ and AA. The one that got away.
Most teams start college players in rookir or high rookie and let their play dictate how fast they move up.

2017 draft:
4 McKay - high rookie
5 Wright P - rookie - high rookie - A+
7 Smith - high rookie
8 Haseley - rookie - high rookie - A
9 Hiura - rookie - A
10 Burger - A
14 Bukauskas P - rookie/high rookie
16 Schmidt P - DNP
17 White - high rookie
18 Faedo P - DNP
20 Peterson P - high rookie

2016:
2 Senzel - rookie - A
5 Ray - A+
6 Puk P - high rookie
8 Quantrill P - rookie - high rookie - A
10 Collins - A+
11 Lewis - high rookie
16 Thaiss - rookie - A
19 Dunn P - high rookie

andyb 2017-09-29 22:17:10 UTC #29

Your lists are just confusing and they do not seem to make a point. College draftees OFTEN debut in High A the year they are drafted. Senzel is a very good prospect and getting to AA that first year is a sign of that, but he is not atypical starting in A+ the first full year after he was drafted. Hall did not. And that is one reason to discount his stats somewhat. Playing 1B is another reason. Your lists just have no rhyme or reason or thesis.

One might want to look at where the college players from the first round in 2016 debuted. That would be more logical.

Senzel - A+ then AA
Ray - A+
Puk - A+ then AA
Quantrill - A+ then AA
Collins - A+ then AA
Lewis - A+ (Rookie does not count because it was injury rehab)
Thaiss - A+ then AA
Dunn - A+
Zeuch - A+
Craig - A+
Lauer - A+ then AA

Getting bored by now. Virtually all top college prospects start their first year in A+. Half make it to AA. Am I saying Hall is as good a prospect as they are? No. And I recognize that as a lower pick he probably does not get the benefit of the doubt to start in A+

But the central point remains is that Hall would have been in Clearwater a whole lot sooner if he was considered a good prospect. Baseball America is not wrong by not ranking him. He just has not done anywhere near enough as an offensive first baseman playing in league where he was older and more experienced (he was young for his college class but he was still a college player) to be seen as a top prospect.

When you say all players' promotions are dictated by their play I say "duh". Even the Phillies did not see him as someone they absolutely had to promote. I am sure Wilson Garcia is a nice person, but it is not as if he was good enough to hold back a top prospect.

Now is Hall a decent prospect for the Phillies? Yes. Probably top 20 now after last year. He was probably among the top 40-50 prospects in the SAL this year. But nowhere near top 20 in a deep league. He really needs to show much more at higher levels (meaning AA at some point by midseason next year) to be seen as a decent prospect.

Austinfan 2017-09-30 02:44:01 UTC #30

My list is all the top 20 college draft picks the last two years and where they played their first season.
You don't like my list because it contradicts your unresearched onclusion.
Your list is simply wrong. Senzel for example was A+ - AA in his SECOND season.
It's common to start college players slow for two reasons, they've already played a lot of ball (especially pitchers) and adjusting to wood bats.

Hall had a fine first season at Williamsport and a fine second season at Lakewood at age 21-22.
He'll start Clearwater at 22 and has a good shot at reaching Reading by the time he turns 23.
Which is age appropriate.

andyb 2017-09-30 03:49:05 UTC #31

You don't get the central point. EVERY SINGLE TOP COLLEGE PROSPECT STARTED THEIR SECOND SEASON in A+. Every one of them. Hall didn't. The first season rarely matters because there is a period of adjustment. The second season is where they start placing them at the right level. Haseley will almost certainly start at Clearwater next year.

Hall is a level behind most top college prospects. That is indisputable. That is a big reason why Hall is not considered a top prospect. You made the claim that he should be. I explained some of the reasons he is not (and why Hoskins was also not considered a top prospect at that level). There was nothing wrong with my list as it made the clear point that Hall is a level behind most top college prospects. Your list was kind of meaningless. If your list had meaning, why did Hall suddenly fall behind every single prospect on it? I guess you are saying he is not a good prospect.

Austinfan 2017-09-30 12:59:15 UTC #32

The Phillies are conservative with their prospects, they could have easily moved Hall up to A+ in August.
They could have moved Hoskins faster as well.
All a prospect can do is perform at the level the team puts him.
And a lot of those prospects that were rushed by teams have struggled at higher levels. Which may mean many teams are too aggressive.

Don't put much stock in prospect lists outside of BA's top 20, after that, history shows it's pretty arbitrary, the odds of success fall off rapidly (self-selection, the top group are the best young prospects and the best performing older prospects).
What I know is Hall had a great season when you account for ballpark effect, and that's all that really matters.
Now he has to do it at higher levels, but he's not a crafty older college player like Tomscha who's taught himself how to work minor league pitchers, Hall is age appropriate and has hit well his first two years.
The one thing I'd like to see from him next year is to be more selective and to continue to reduce his K rate.

andyb 2017-09-30 14:02:49 UTC #33

None of that changes that Hall was a college player in Low A. That means we discount his stats somewhat. He had a nice year, but he was a year old for the level and was a college draftee so he had all that experience. Just because he was born in July does not make him a whole year younger than his junior year draft class. He is 6 months younger than JP Crawford. Age and experience matter.

Hall is a prospect. He does some things well. Decent power, mediocre strike zone judgement, good arm though that is not that useful at 1B. But he is not a top prospect as a college player in Low A. He is not in BA's top 20 or 100 or 200. He is probably top 20 for us though I could easily see him in the 21-30 range also. On Lakewood alone he ranks behind Sanchez, Medina, Moniak, Romero, Gamboa, and Brito to start with. Then he is in a group with Fanti and Suarez and Falter. So somewhere in the 7-9 range among Lakewood prospects not counting Haseley. He's much better than Austin Listi of course.

allentown 2017-09-30 15:48:06 UTC #34

But, as Andy says, Hall really is not age appropriate. If he played the year in CLW, he would be age appropriate. If he double jumps to Reading next season, then he will be age appropriate. I think the truth is between what you and Andy are saying. College draftees who are considered prospects by the Phillies do start their first full season at CLW, BUT in Hall's favor, he was a young college draftee so this was only his age 21 season. Age 22 (baseball age) season at Reading is absolutely on track. To interpret Hall in terms of Phillies placement, I looked at Kingery, who indeed started his first full season in CLW, BUT... it was his age 22 season and although he finished that season at Reading, he was back at Reading for the first half of his age 23 season. At best, he hits Philly at the start of his age 24 season, but very likely not until a few months in. If not for a guy name Hoskins, Hall could certainly hit Philly at the start of his age 24 season, if he continues to perform, so arguably he is on as fast a pace as Kingery. Speaking of Hoskins, like Hall he started his first full season at Lakewood, then moved to CLW halfway through that year, but it was his age 22 season. He reached Philly halfway through his age 24 season. Hall outhit Hoskins at Williamsport, but Hoskins outhit Hall at Lakewood and CLW.

Austinfan 2017-09-30 17:22:46 UTC #35

Player development isn't linear.

For one thing, Hall was far less experienced than Kingery or Hoskins coming out of college.
He played one year at Chocise College, CC, then one season at Dallas Baptist in the Missouri Valley Conference.
And his one year of major college ball was split between 1B and pitching - started 16 games.

Hall isn't as polished as Hoskins as the same point in their development, but may have even more power - 6'4 236 lbs.
He's also LH, which is a plus at 1B.
This will be a key season, if he improves his plate discipline (which wasn't bad in college (31 BB in 285 PA), he can maintain that power as he climbs the ladder.
Or he can be exposed like Cozens.

andyb 2017-09-30 17:41:37 UTC #36

We all get carried away by someone's age XX season. Hall might have had his official age 21 season this past year but if he had been born a month earlier it would have been his age 22 season. And since he was drafted as a junior in college experience-wise this was closer to being his age 22 season. That means we discount his stats somewhat.

As I have said repeatedly. He's a prospect. He is in the same situation as a guy like Hoskins was being old for his level in his first full season. Plus having the offensive expectations of being a 1B and having limited defensive value he just needs to be good. In this season's draft class Spencer Howard has a July birthday too. So he is a bit younger than the rest of the college junior draftees though he has similar experience. He should be treated and evaluated like other college juniors. If either he or Seabold starts at Lakewood next year it is a sign they are not seen as top prospects. On the other hand it was fine for Romero's prospect status this year to start at Lakewood because he came from a junior college and was legitimately a year less experienced.

And AF is the one that said age did not matter for all the LA prospects because they were so "experienced". Age does matter, though being on the young side of one's draft class is really much more important for HS draftees compared to college draftees.

And AF is simply wrong about Hall's college experience. He played 3 full seasons, 2 at Cochise and 1 at Dallas Baptist. He did pitch regularly but also played offensively every day he was not pitching. He was 3rd team All-American in 2015 so just because his baseball cube page does not list that year it does not mean he did not play. He led the team in RBI and had a 1000+ OPS that year.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/teams/stats.asp?Y=2015&T=20043

Then he played in college summer leagues both years in college. Texas Collegiate league in 2015 and New England in 2014. Hall was probably starting close to 100 games a year at the plate in addition to pitching in 20-30. He was a very experience college player playing in good leagues even if the first 2 years were not D1. He was getting 250+ plate appearances every college season so it was not like he was ever really sitting.

Not sure I would compare Hall to Cozens either. At the same age Cozens was bashing 40 HRs in Reading. Big, big difference.

allentown 2017-09-30 17:50:27 UTC #37

I've certainly not given up on Cozens. From watching him at Reading last season, he remains a personal favorite. Other big difference to Hall is that Cozens can play corner OF. As a prospect, I like Cozens better than Hall. I realize I am in the minority on this. Cozens needs better plate management, but he still has more power than anyone in the system, including Hall and Hoskins. I'm hoping that he just needs another year of AAA. It won't be the first time a guy stalled out for a season and then did well. One really couldn't possibly look much worse than Williams did toward the end of last season. He certainly turned that around this year.

andyb 2017-09-30 18:00:21 UTC #38

I am not too far apart on them (for the billionth time I am not bashing Hall). Cozens does have legit power and that is hugely important. Last year was a struggle but he still had a 700+ OPS at age 23 in AAA. He also has a little more defensive value than a 1B as you point out. For me he probably drops a few spots into our second 10 (around 15th). If he can cut his K rate by about 5% he still has a chance. He probably will never be a guy who strikes out less than 150-175 times a season, but if that comes with 30-40 HRs he has a place in the big leagues. Joey Gallo just put up an 849 OPS hitting .206 (2.9 WAR even though his defense is a negative).

Hall is more 20-25 in ranking. Good power but the lack of patience could expose him at higher levels. And he needs to be an 850+ OPS guy at every step as a first baseman. I loved the pick of Hall on draft day. He had legitimate power and was more of an athlete than most first basemen from an underrated program. He just has not done anything age appropriate yet to deserve to be talked about as a top 10-15 prospect in our system. Hoskins did prove it at upper levels and Hall will need to do something similar.

rkeden 2017-09-30 18:16:20 UTC #39

I would love to see Cozens turn it around and do believe the possibility exists. He has so many tools to bring to the game and certainly passes the eye test. I have seen him play a few times, admittedly only a few, but my eyes gravitate toward him as he just reeks of athleticism. Seems like a good kid too. However, it is undeniable, inexcusable and strange that he had more strikeouts this year than the cumulative combination of Kingery, Perkins and Hoskins. And it wasn't even close.

I love the concept of Walthan coming to the bigs in that he knows so many of the newbys so well. But I hold the lack of progress-- more accurately the decline of Cozens against him. How skilled a manager can he be at getting the most out of these youngsters if he can't find a strategy to get Dylan out of his funk? If the batting coach on the AAA club can't reach him, how about calling the parent org for help? The problem was over months of the season, not just a quick slump. And, if corrected, Dylan would be such a huge asset.

I think that his buddy Rhys was his downfall this summer. I liken his psyche to that of a really good track star in the 440 that runs his heart out only to realize halfway through the race that the guy in the next lane is much quicker. Picture the guy in the next lane to Usain Bolt. Suddenly, reality sinks in and he loses his drive and focus and finishes 5th. . Hoskins was just better at all phases of hitting and Cozens couldn't keep pace, no matter how hard he swung. He needs Matt Stairs, or others, to work with him this winter and get his confidence and swing back and better. Much better!

allentown 2017-09-30 18:56:33 UTC #40

We often forget how big a jump it is from Reading to Allentown for a hitter. I think I've seen more of our guys make a smooth transition from Allentown to Philly than from Reading to Allentown. Hoskins smooth progress really isn't the norm. Look at Crawford and Alfaro and Williams.