Poll: Phillies regular season win total

[andyb]

Hopefully only for a couple of months, though. After that Hall/Sosa seem like the likely replacements.

Though we presumably lose the DH defensive advantage by cycling Schwarber and Castellanos through there now.

Hoskins' injury definitely hurts more with Bryce out too. We had one layer of decent depth in Hall and Sosa. The second layer is less good (at least that is how it looks at the moment).

[BostonRoss]

Remember, Sosa put up 0.8 WAR in 25 games for the Phils, many of which he played only a few innings in. He had 3.2 WAR in 2021 in 113 games. Also, it might make sense for Castellanos to play some 1B after Harper returns, which would help the outfield defense.

[zambonir]

It might make sense for Castellanos to play 1B forever, but risky to try it now. I'm sure he'll keep working out there some though.

[allentown]

Not necessarily a big swing. I made the same swing, but it is just a way the brackets wee set up. I think 88 wins now, I previously thought 90 wins.

[zambonir]

I didn't put too much thought into the brackets but crudely I guess I viewed 86-88 at last wild card (Phillies last year 87), 89-91 as 5th (Padres 89) and 91-94 as fourth (Cardinals 93 last year, though of course they won their division while the Mets had 101 wins).

So in some ways as a group we were/are optimistic, but in another way, not one person voted for a win total that is likely to take the NL East unless the divison returns to 2021 form.

[tom81]

You think those things are worth a combined five fewer wins? I think that losing Rhys and Ranger hurts a lot, but that seems like a big swing.

Well probably 4 which is still enough to shift down as I was thinking 91-92. I'm really worried about the loss of Ranger, more than the other things. I was thinking he could split the difference in his 2021-2022 era/fip and put up 180-200 innings.

[zambonir]

I guess if you are worried that Ranger is going to miss half a season that would be significant. But for all we know he still may not even miss more than three starts.

[BostonRoss]

No need for Castellanos to play 1B now when he can DH with Hall or Bohm at 1B. But eventually Harper will be the full-time DH. Given that none of the other 1B on the Phillies are very good defensively, and Castellanos is a former 3B like Bohm, I don't think there will be a big drop-off in defense there, and it should be made up for by the improvement in RF. He'll have a couple of months to learn the position.

[BostonRoss]

Not necessarily a big swing. I made the same swing, but it is just a way the brackets wee set up. I think 88 wins now, I previously thought 90 wins.

Yeah, that's fair. My comment was to tom81 who actually changed his vote downward by two brackets.

[andyb]

Zips has us at 84.

The Official Hopefully-Not-Too-Erroneous 2023 ZiPS Projections

Keith Law 87.

Keith Law's win totals for every team, plus awards and playoff picks

[zambonir]

Both would be rather disappointing ... and raise questions about the future if such a result also means several players, both young and old, didn't meet expectations. But I guess it could also mean the Hoskins injury and Harper's more limited production wasn't overcome.

I'm still incapable of betting hard against the Phillies so I wound up doing an over 88.5 (which at least pays off better than under) and also one on them winning between 86 and 91. So I could win both of those, or lose the first but make up for it on the second. Of course I also lose the second one if they do too well (but then I'd have won the first).

[andyb]

Pecota 88.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

[LoneStarPhan]

Predictions are always interesting but really don't count much come October.

[BostonRoss]

Since today is "pile on the Phillies" day, it seems appropriate to revisit this thread. Every one of us who voted thought they would thought they would have a winning record. Only bkox picked them to win fewer than 86 games. Of course most of us voted before the Hoskins injury, and perhaps Ranger as well (and Alvarado, of course). But they're on a 74 win pace right now.

I wonder whether our disappointment is more that we were too optimistic than the Phillies not playing as well as they should. Sure, several players have underperformed, but a lot have been pretty much as expected. Especially if you didn't expect Wheeler and Nola to repeat 2022.

[zambonir]

Well, what did last year's version of this thread say at this time last year?

[Philsmania]

I said 67-70 wins and blow it up and start another rebuild.

[zambonir]

Well, we all got it right for the most part. Gonna be between 88 and 91 probably but the high end wasn't crazy (and would have been achievable with a better start).

[LoneStarPhan]

Phillies will have a winning record at home and a winning record against teams over .500. They need to win one of the games in NYC this weekend to have a winning road record.

Win total is now at 88 with 5 games remaining.

[Philsmania]

Let's go for 90!

[zambonir]

my over/under was 88.5 so I sure hope so!