I didn't put too much thought into the brackets but crudely I guess I viewed 86-88 at last wild card (Phillies last year 87), 89-91 as 5th (Padres 89) and 91-94 as fourth (Cardinals 93 last year, though of course they won their division while the Mets had 101 wins).
So in some ways as a group we were/are optimistic, but in another way, not one person voted for a win total that is likely to take the NL East unless the divison returns to 2021 form.
No need for Castellanos to play 1B now when he can DH with Hall or Bohm at 1B. But eventually Harper will be the full-time DH. Given that none of the other 1B on the Phillies are very good defensively, and Castellanos is a former 3B like Bohm, I don't think there will be a big drop-off in defense there, and it should be made up for by the improvement in RF. He'll have a couple of months to learn the position.
Both would be rather disappointing ... and raise questions about the future if such a result also means several players, both young and old, didn't meet expectations. But I guess it could also mean the Hoskins injury and Harper's more limited production wasn't overcome.
I'm still incapable of betting hard against the Phillies so I wound up doing an over 88.5 (which at least pays off better than under) and also one on them winning between 86 and 91. So I could win both of those, or lose the first but make up for it on the second. Of course I also lose the second one if they do too well (but then I'd have won the first).
Since today is "pile on the Phillies" day, it seems appropriate to revisit this thread. Every one of us who voted thought they would thought they would have a winning record. Only bkox picked them to win fewer than 86 games. Of course most of us voted before the Hoskins injury, and perhaps Ranger as well (and Alvarado, of course). But they're on a 74 win pace right now.
I wonder whether our disappointment is more that we were too optimistic than the Phillies not playing as well as they should. Sure, several players have underperformed, but a lot have been pretty much as expected. Especially if you didn't expect Wheeler and Nola to repeat 2022.