Prod acknowledged. I honestly don't know how this will affect my vote, because I haven't the slightest idea how this affects the votes of other party-unmoored voters.
The conventional wisdom is that this will drive Trump's support down, in which case it should be easier to vote third party (e.g,, Chase Oliver). Heck, no one likes being called selfish and irresponsible for not choosing between too very bad options, when both tribes regard the other as akin to an existential threat. If Trump's clearly going to lose to Biden then, yeah, no one "needs" my vote and I'll vote my conscience.
The question, I'll posit, is whether independents buy the narrative of the Republicans or the Democrats regarding the optics and import of a criminal trial of the presumptive GOP nominee over hush money paid to a porn star. The problem the Dems face, I think, is the intensity of these respective narratives now that Trump's been convicted. Now that Trump's a felon, Dems could become a victim of their own smugness.
Meanwhile, there is nothing that animates passions more than the perception of an important right being snatched away. It is why the Dems do so well with the abortion issue. It is also why Trump could be successful with a simple appeal that the right to choose the next President is being taken from voters and handed to prosecutors,
I am not suggesting that the charges filed against Trump were political - they were rationally constructed and prosecuted. It was the decision to prosecute, under the circumstances of a national election, that is being perceived as political. Has that perception embedded itself in independent voters, unable to be dislodged by the cold water of a criminal conviction?
I'm getting out the popcorn to go with the Wild Turkey.