Phils Sign Bryce Harper, extend spring training invite

[donaldorc]

The Phillies spring training game with Toronto stopped completely on Game Day. think it was because of the Haper announcement?

[Purduke]

How about Harper to Dodgers for Pollock and Kershaw -- help LA out with their salary squeeze. Now that he's stretched over 13 years he's much more affordable.

[Purduke]

I wouldn't want to be giving him that tax advice.

[el-pietro]

Happy birthday Julio. As nice as it must be to have him sign today surely you'd concede that we'd all feel a bit better if he'd signed a month or two ago!

[EastFallowfield]

He wanted to skip the most boring part of spring training is all

[el-pietro]

Ooh I hadn't even thought of that. When do we see him in the field? Sunday vs the Twins? Tuesday vs the Cards? Is he even ready to get into the field yet?

[zambonir]

No, that's correct. It's one reason players like signing bonuses. As a full-time resident of Nevada I would think Harper could also avoid some other state tax, but not much, since players don't get paid in the off-season. For the 100+ days he's in Philly and the 81 days he's in other places he'll pay the appropriate state and local tax. The team withholds but still must be a pain to file all those returns!

[Austinfan]

$26M a year at 36-38 is a small price to pay.

Unless he totally breaks down, he should be able to put up 1-2 WAR as a platoon player in those years.
And while I think the true value of a WAR is $7.5-8M on the market (for smart teams), in ten years it should be closer to $10M (25% inflation over ten years is 2.3% a year, or the general rate of inflation). So the out year risk is limited.

Say a $50M overpay the last three years - so you need about 35 WAR the first 10 years at $8M a WAR to justify this deal.
So if he averages 3.5 WAR a year, they come out smelling like roses.

[allentown]

He may well be. Before you sign with the team, it's all about getting the best deal for yourself and future FAs, as Thome did. Fans need to recognize that it isn't wise for stars to run into fences and do much diving for balls, because that risks taking their bats out of the lineup for months. Nobody races to first on every routine grounder over a long baseball season. For Pete Rose, it was a gimmick.

[allentown]

Baseball inflation has been a lot higher than that. U.S. inflation is going to go on an late 1970s/early 1980s skyrocket some time over that period. I don't see how that can be avoided. I think baseball passed $7,5 million/WAR some time ago and hasn't looked back.

[julio]

Happy birthday Julio. As nice as it must be to have him sign today surely you'd concede that we'd all feel a bit better if he'd signed a month or two ago!

Ehh... maybe. In all honesty, I wasn't obsessing over Machado/Harper as much as many seem to have been. Probably because of the number associated with the birthday, I've kind of learned to take things as they come. Am I pumped now? You bet. Was I freaking out yesterday? No, I wasn't.

[Austinfan]

Yep. I thought they were much improved before they added Harper.
He's the icing, but Klentak had already baked the cake.
If it wasn't Harper this year, Middleton would have added someone next year (or the winter of 2020-21)

[Squire]

Breakout:
2019: 20M Signing Bonus, 10M Salary
2020-28: $26M salary per
2029-2031: $22M salary per

[julio]

Breakout:
2019: 20M Signing Bonus, 10M Salary
2020-28: $26M salary per
2029-2031: $22M salary per

Source, Squire?

[andyb]

If this is the actual terms of the contract, I find it hard to believe Harper was getting short $45 million AAV offers. Maybe for 1 or 2 years. I am guessing the only 10-year-deal the Giants were offering was backloaded or partially deferred.

It really seems we got a bargain for Harper. And in a DH league I actually feel comfortable about how he would age. The things he has at the plate are discipline and batspeed. In a DH role those attributes should age pretty well, even if he loses some batspeed as all players do. It is nicer to start from a higher base and he should not be susceptible to the approach that would get Howard out because he has much better plate coverage and discipline than Ryan did.

[bkeich]

Breakout:
2019: 20M Signing Bonus, 10M Salary
2020-28: $26M salary per
2029-2031: $22M salary per

Well, it does add up to $330 I think.

Extrapolating salaries for baseball inflation one could even say that Harper really wont be that expensive in those last year. Maybe even tradeable (if we need to and of course he agrees), but hey, I will be pretty old by then and may actually be more insane than now, so lets worry about the first part.

Funny to see signing bonus and small salary. I guess the difference is just in how it is paid out, but really pretty small "initial" payout. Would have expected 50-60M honestly.

[julio]

Here's a link to an AP article that supports the numbers Squire posted:

https://sports.yahoo.com/ap-source-harper-phillies-agree-330m-13-deal-202223666--mlb.html

No deferred payments, full no-trade clause.

[andyb]

Fangraphs seems a fan of the deal:

Phillies Get Bryce Harper and Bryce Harper Gets Massive Payout

[julio]

Probably should have posted this a bit earlier:

PTOITWCFTPP!

[Jazzhead]

With that $10 million salary for 2019,. we could certainly bag Kimbrel or Keuchel on a lucrative one-year deal. Kimbrel might not jump on it but Keuchel could see it as a chance to re-establish his value for 2020.