Phillies Wild Card Magic Number

[zambonir]

yeah good point. Arizona especially is set up for that I believe. I would still get a kick out of the Reds catching everybody.

[Aquapong]

I don’t want to face the Marlins in a three game set.

[Callison]

I just want to see the next Phils - Braves series. Long way to go to get there, but that's where the WSC is.

[zambonir]

Well we all want to make it the next round!

I would agree the Marlins feels like it could be the most annoying/nerve-wracking opponent, though that's not really based on anything other than the recent history of the rivalry in a way that has nothing to do with these two specific teams. They did, of course, just take two of three at CBP.

I just want to win the first series in two. I think It is crucial to be able to compete in Atlanta. Though I guess you can argue last year momentum favored the wild card round teams.

[bkox]

The Marlins had lined up their best starter, lefty Braxton Garrett, to pitch on Tuesday night. That way he would be on normal rest to start the regular season finale on Sunday, which could be the game that seals Miami's trip to the playoffs. But with the postponement, Garrett now has to pitch on Wednesday, meaning he won't pitch on Sunday unless the Marlins are willing to start him on just three days of rest.

Mets grounds crew could cost Marlins a playoff spot after reportedly leaving...

[Philsmania]

Since wild card play was instituted in 1995, notably more wild card teams have won the WS than teams which finished with the best record during the regular season. My best explanation for why is that in most cases, the best record team has wrapped a Postseson berth, its division and seeding with ten or more games to go. That's a lot of meaningless baseball for that team to play and a big opportunity to generally become flat. A wild card team, on the other hand, is usually playing for its dear life, sometimes right up to game 162. It's not surprising that they are more on their toes and more prepared to play than the mighty best record team.

[andyb]

That is a bit of an unfair comparison because 2 of the final 8 teams have historically been wild card teams and only 1 can have the best record. I imagine if you changed the comparison to the team with the best record in either league versus the wild cards the teams with the best record would prevail more often. Houston last year for instance won 106 games, the most by 7 in the AL. But the Dodgers had a better record and of course did not win.

The best record team does not have twice as much chance to win as any wild card, but they are better.

Now baseball of course has shorter series than most sports with more upsets. Plus depth really matters in the regular season versus the postseason. There are reasons that league #4 seeds do better in baseball than in other sports because of the nature of the game.

[zambonir]

I think it's just that any baseball team can win a series against any other baseball team at any time. The longer the series - and the more of them you play - the more often the better team pans out, but even then, the qualities that make a team win 100 regular season games are not exclusively the same qualities that make a team win in October.

Also, the teams that end up with "momentum" late in the season often feature completely different rosters than they had in the first half. Both the 2023 and 2022 Phillies really do need to be viewed in terms of their second-half or even post-June 1 roster (and manager) and record. And those numbers say they are just as good as the Braves. That the Braves were the better team by far in April and May is the thing that's stale, not that they don't have to play important games now.

[julio]

Yeah, it's basic probability. Nobody in the post-season is a bad team. Atlanta is a .643 club (as of today), the Phils are .561. But assuming nothing but random chance, the Phils can win a 5-game series against Atlanta - not all the time, not half the time, but some of the time. (I'm not doing the math today - I'm rather under the weather, and that's beyond my befuddled brain right now.)

[andyb]

We will get a greater percentage of wild card winners in the future too, since now it is possible for up to 4 of the final 8 teams to be wild card teams since a wild card can now beat the 3 seed. It the 6 seed beats the 3 seed 30%-40% of the time we'll average 2.6 to 2.8 wild card teams in the final 8 (like the Phillies were last season).

[phillychuck]

Here's is a very basic calculation (geek mode on):

Given: Braves .643, Phils .561

.643/(.541+.643) gives Braves chance to win a game (this is rough, not considering park or pitcher effects) = 54.3%

Braves Sweep 54.3%^3 =16.1%
Braves in 4 = 54.3%^3*45.7%*3 (3 ways to get a 3-1 result) =22.0%
Braves in 5 = 54.3%^3*45.7%^2 *6 (6 ways to win in 5 games)=20.1%
Phils sweep = 45.7%^3 = 9.5%
Phils in 4 = 45.7^3*54.3 * 3 =15.5%
Phils in 5 = 45.7^3*54.3^2*6 = 16.9%

Phils total chance to win is 41.9%, Braves 58.1%

If their winning percentages are a true reflection of relative ability. Not a sure thing at all...

[zambonir]

Now do just second-half WP. Phillies .588, Braves, 603.

[julio]

Yep, kinda my point. The most effective way to win a World Series is to get into the postseason a lot of times.

Now, I would agree that postseason success is not purely chance…but there’s a large element of chance (“luck,” good or bad), and the best way to beat random outcomes is to have lots of trials. Get good enough to make the postseason, and stay good enough, and eventually the breaks will fall your way.

Historically, the Phillies have been pretty bad at staying good. Except for two brief periods (1976-81 and 2008-12), they’ve tended to throw together a competitive roster, only to allow it to fall apart (1983, 1993). There are some signs that the current management and ownership understands this — and we may be in the early stages of a third “golden” period. If they make the postseason for the next half-dozen years, there’s a good chance they’ll hit the jackpot again.

[phillychuck]

PHILS 49.4% based on 2nd half only, and BRAVES 50.6% Fill those in the calculation above, I'm too lazy.

[zambonir]

That's good enough for me! I realize that's not highly scientific but neither is the idea that 100-win teams flop in the playoffs because they were able to coast.

Really, it's just something else that highlights the fact that wire-to-wire excellence isn't as important in the wild card era. Getting off to a great start is definitely the best way to set yourself up to win the division or the top seed but all teams view April to June as a shake-out period, and for the Phillies in both of these years (as well as the 2019 Nats and 2021 Braves - not a wild card but they only won 88 games) that's been especially true, if not necessarily by design (they didn't plan to fire Girardi or have Turner stink). Some teams come out of spring training colder than others but all teams change over the course of the season (some for the worse).

The Phillies team that stumbled more in April and May just isn't the same team: that team had a scuffling Turner, no Harper for a long time, a scuffling Schwarber who also had to play the OF and no Rojas. Both Bailey Falter and Matt Strahm were starters and even the bullpen was slightly different (no Hoffman and of course no Dylan Covey, obviously the most important guy ). They had no power and pitching carried them for a while. Now maybe pitching is a bigger concern.

The Braves aren't the same either of course, but the Phillies have kept pace with them since June.

[zambonir]

Btw, it's done. If the Phillies get past the wild card round they will face the Braves in the NLDS.

[Callison]

Btw, it's done. If the Phillies get past the wild card round they will face the Braves in the NLDS.

I doubt there's Phils fan anywhere that doesn't want a piece of the Braves. And gotta go into it expecting to see Strider twice. The playoffs are always great baseball, but the Phils and Braves have a rivalry that makes it even better.

[zambonir]

I hope they don't see any starting pitchers twice!

[HopeSpringsEternal]

D-Backs lose to the White Sox today 3-1. Which means that they can’t clinch a playoff spot today; Zac Gallen will start tomorrow’s game, and will not be available until game #2 of the wild card playoff round.

[zambonir]

Since this has been getting discussed here (tonight's pre-game show).

I've seen June 3 used a lot; I assume that cherry pick comes from Phillies PR and is because they lost on both June 1 and 2 (as well as the three games in May before that).