Phillies Wild Card Magic Number

[Philsmania]

Cubs still have a better RD than Pads (there was also a big story last week about their dysfunctional clubhouse and Manny's selfishness, FWIW). I've seen some say Arizona is scarier than Cubs, who knows. All these teams have a few guys who are scary (the Cardinals included).

"Intangibles" may or may not better but it looks like there's no comparing Harper and Machado in that department.

[zambonir]

Even if none of the negative talk about Machado is true I think it's safe to say Harper was the right guy.

[zambonir]

I wonder what the team will decided to do as far as a celebration, will it be for clinching a playoff berth or for clinching the top wild card? Still in pretty good shape for both to happen against the Pirates.

[Squire]

I think custom is to celebrate clinching the playoffs.

[zambonir]

Well, I don't know about that. If you are still in the division race and clinch the wild card do you celebrate when you still haven't achieved your goal? Did the Orioles and Rays celebrate when they both clinched a playoff berth (while playing each other no less) on Sunday?

Similiarly, I think when there were three division winners and one wild card, if you were out of the division race you celebrate that wild card, and being the last team into the playoffs. But it does not seem worth it to celebrate clinching the sixth seed when your goal is the fourth seed.

As a fan, however, I assume it would be fun to be at CBP when they clinch. Either time.

Either way it will be interesting to see which tack they take - we're not going to make a big deal about this because we've done it before and have greater goals or, it's all worth celebrating. Last year they went the latter route but last year was different.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Teams and players celebrate events during a game when they are losing by 8 runs (HR celebrations in the dugout ie) I can't imagine some at least small type of celebration for clinching a spot. I would hope they do enough to acknowledge the achievement but don't go overboard as there are more steps to be taken. Also for a number of the players this is new grounds, it will be the first playoff experience so they deserve a chance to celebrate the accomplishmnet.

[zambonir]

Oh they will celebrate on the field but when will the goggles and champagne come out?

[Philsmania]

Oh they will celebrate on the field but when will the goggles and champagne come out?

Just my opinion, but doing clubhouse celebrations following wildcard and divisional rounds is overdoing it.

[bkox]

Just my opinion, but doing clubhouse celebrations following wildcard and divisional rounds is overdoing it.

I agree... with the exception of last year... with the Phillies long absence from the playoffs.. I think the phan base wanted and needed to see those celebrations.

[zambonir]

Well, I'm not even talking about that - I think they will celebrate every round in which they win a series. My question is does merely making the playoffs merit that kind of celebration.

I assume the Braves did not go too crazy after clinching the NL East given how that's just normal for them. But they celebrate enough. And that's still the division.

Anyway, 7. Except, 8 over the Marlins since Phillies don't have tiebreaker with them. That would be a twist!

[Philsmania]

If it was up for me to decide...

Clinch a Postseason berth or division: Pop the corks and celebrate (but not for both)
Clinch Postseason homefield advantage; No.
Win wildcard round: No.
Win divisional round: No.
Win LCS: Pop the corks and celebrate
Win WS: Of course, pop the corks and celebrate.

[zambonir]

I think they made it very clear last year that that they wanted to enjoy it all, and there's no reason to be jaded (though of course in their case there truly wasn't) or superstitious. Winning any series is great, and hard, even if it's not 1968 (which is to say, I'm sure people thought the AL and NL Championships Series was a joke back then too. Especially with that junior varsity NY expansion team winning it. But at least the Mets were the team that would have won the NL straight-up.

I would tend to agree they will probably celebrate just making the post-season. But the fans are likely to be a lot more juiced about clinching the top wild card (if it happens at home).

[Philsmania]

There's a bit of a divergence with the above sites. Playoffstatus.com says our magic numbers are 7 and 6 while playoffmagic.com says they are 8 and 7.

[zambonir]

You have to apply the tiebreakers at playoff magic yourself.

[phillychuck]

Magic numbers this morning...

[zambonir]

Down to 4 for making the playoffs (over the Cubs), 6 for the home games (over both Arizona and Miami).

[Philsmania]

Using the below thingy, I get...

6 over the Diamondbacks--manually applying the tiebreaker
5 over the Marlins
4 over the Cubs--manually applying the tiebreaker
3 over the Reds--manually applying the tiebreaker
2 over the Giants
1 over the Padres

Magic Number Calculator | Let's Play Ball!

I am assuming this is calculating outright "finish ahead of" and not ties. Therefore, where we win the tiebreaker, you can chop of a game.

It is really hard to say what our clinch a berth or clinch homefield advantage number is since much depends on what happens with the other teams. We need to see some of the teams toward the bottom of the above list fall off it. We could conceivably clinch a berth by the end of this Mets series (be it Sunday or Monday, due to the weather) if we win at least two of those games, the Padres and Giants lose at least one and the Cubs lose two.

Diamondbacks play at the Yankees...who may be playing hard to avoid the Yanks' first losing season since 1992 but who still stink
Cubs host the moribund Rockies
Marlins host the Brewers whose magic number to clinch the division is down to two.
Reds host the Pirates who have played moderately well lately
Giants play at the Dodgers who still have a very outside chance of reeling in the Braves (that magic number is down to six)
Padres visit the Cardinals

[zambonir]

That doesn't sound right to me, since the Marlins have a tiebreaker with us and Arizona does not. 5 is the magic number with Miami without the tiebreaker. It's 7 with Arizona. 6 with both when tiebreaker is applied.

They can definitely lock down the playoff berth this series if things break right.

Meanwhile, the team just put more tickets to Wild Card Round Game 3 on sale. Public sale must be coming soon. That's just business, not jinxing.

[Patchmk88]

If the magic number with Miami is 5, then that means we finish ahead of them with those 5 (not tied). This would mean you would not add 1 to the magic number. You are only subtracting 1 from the magic number of teams we have tiebreaker with because we have to tie them not have a better record.

[Philsmania]

If the magic number with Miami is 5, then that means we finish ahead of them with those 5 (not tied). This would mean you would not add 1 to the magic number. You are only subtracting 1 from the magic number of teams we have tiebreaker with because we have to tie them not have a better record.

Correct. The magic numbers I put up above are for the Phillies to finish ahead of, not tied with each of those teams. Since the Philies have the tiebreakers against the Diamondbacks, Cubs and Reds, the magic number that the calculator spits out is reduced by one since a tie with the Phillies isn't going to help any of those teams. The Phillies clinching a tie with any of those teams is clinching a higher seeding. Any combination of Phillies wins and Marlins losses totaling five means the Phillies finish ahead of Miami and their tiebreaker over us will be irrelevant.