Phillies sign David Robertson

[zambonir]

Ah right.

What is your thought on that at this point with Painter and Crawford? Obviously if they can truly help you don't worry about it, but if that's not certain - which it isn't - do you think harder about waiting on the roster spot and service time?

The Athletic story today said the actual cost of Robertson's prorated $5.5 million will be "$12 million, including tax payments for exceeding the fourth luxury-tax threshold." I'm still a little confused about what number we assign to each threshold.

[zambonir]

Per MLBTR

July 21: The Phillies announced that they’ve signed Robertson to a one-year deal. He’s consented to be optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, where he’ll ramp up in preparation for his 2025 debut.

[andyb]

We are paying something like 110% on all money above the $301 million 3rd threshold. Robertson pro-rated is actually about $6 million. So we are paying 110% on the last $4+ million but a lesser rate on the first couple of million technically.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

[zambonir]

I think the confusion - or my confusion - is that sometimes people conflate the thresholds [of which there are four] with the surcharge [which kicks in at the second threshsold].

So from what you are saying Phillies had not yet crossed the final threshold into 50% plus 60% until now [or at least they had dropped back under it while Alvarado was suspended]

[andyb]

Yeah. They were a couple million over before Alvarado, dipped back under and now are about $4 million over. Assume they budgeted for the roster at the beginning of the season so Robertson is really replacing that money and a bit more.

Any new money they bring in now probably won't hurt that much because it is all pro-rated.

[VoteForKalas]

Wow, does this signing not speak to the desperation of the Phillies and scarcity and cost of landing relievers right now?

We are signing this guy for the 3rd time at age 40. A total flyer.

This better not stop DD from getting another reliever.

[Philsmania]

With the exception of his time with the Marlins in 2023, Robertson has been consistently good after losing the better part of three seasons to rest-surgery-then recovery. This move probably doesn't go over well with the phanbase, many members of whom are still sore from him giving us nothing during his first tour of duty (and some of the more ignorant claiming that he "stole the Phillies money"). Hence, if he doesn't do well, the energy can turn negative fast. But, he can help us. I'm a little surprised that nobody signed him after last season.

[VoteForKalas]

I'm a little surprised that nobody signed him after last season.

Perhaps because he was 39 yrs old, has a significant injury history and was looking for good money?

[zambonir]

He hasn't really been hurt much since he came back from TJ. Other than the fluke dugout injury. And he really has been good. He turned down a $7.5 million option from Texas to pocket $1 million and then nobody would meet his price, but he also doesn't have an agent.

In the end I think it's a win for everybody, he missed out on $3 or 4 million but didn't have to worry about being traded again, Phillies get a well-rested arm, and he gets a shot at October. And yes, everyone is desperate for sure. I reckon he's our third-best reliever and that might have been true of the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers too, once you factor in underperformance and injury. He might even be better than the 2025 Strahm. He strikes guys out, which is what's missing from this pen [especially w/o Jose].

I don't think it will stop the Phillies from getting another reliever. What Robertson represents is the alternative to getting another Tanner Banks or Joe Ross, or even bringing Soto [one of the best available LHPs out there but still no one's idea of a top tier guy] back. They should still get a top one next, not a middler.

[andyb]

I assume we'll still get a higher profile arm that will at least close some of the time. A bullpen of new closer, Kerkering, Strahm, Alvarado, Robertson, and Banks down the stretch 6 trusted arms hopefully with guys like Lazar and Romano and Robert competing with Ross for what's left. And then in September you can make a decision on Painter being the 14th pitcher or just go for more bullpen depth.

[zambonir]

Romano will still get his chances. The playoff rotation is still where it gets interesting as far as putting someone in the pen.

Assuming Nola comes back seems like they should just get Painter on a reliever or tandem routine [as the second guy] immediately if they do bring him up. Or don't do it.

[Philsmania]

Looking back at Robertson's injury timeline--initially pulls up lame, three months of rest which doesn't heal things, surgery during the second half of the season which takes him out of the rest of that season and almost all of the following season, followed by what could best be described as a rebuild and recovery season--reminds me of Dominguez's injury timeline and now Painter's injury timeline. In the end, all three were lost--or, in the case of Painter, will have been lost--for the better part of three seasons. Timing of the surgery probably cost an extra year.