Phillies sign Andrew McCutchen

[LoneStarPhan]

After a visit to the Andrew McCutchen page at Baseball Reference, I am feeling much more positive about this signing.

First, I had somehow gotten it in my mind that he was 35 or 36 when in fact he just turned 32 after the season ended. That makes a huge difference in my view of the signing.

I am pleased to see that even with his total OPS slipping below .800, he maintained a solid OBP and had 95 walks. For the 8th year in a row, he hit 20 or more home runs. I think that there is a good chance that he will be a solid producer both offensively and defensively for the next two if not three years.

I agree with not waiting for the Harper and Machado signings to sort out. While I would like one or both with the Phillies, I want an improved Phillies team even if both sign elsewhere. I look for a LH starter and a solid closer capable reliever to be added next.

[zambonir]

Matt Winkelman (Matt_Winkelman)

[mdougherty12]

Yeah Brantley was more tantalizing but this is about defense too. Problem is I don't know that McCutchen acutally plays good defense, and it's not likely to get better. Good player though. Gets on base. Probably better than Williams. Presumably won't be good enough to start by Year 3.

DRS and UZR have McCutcheon as roughly average in the corners defensively for the last 2 seasons. Statcast has him as slightly below average in 2017 and terrible in 2018 (as bad as Harper). He can't play CF at all anymore.

[el-pietro]

Thats an upgrade on Williams and Hoskins and probably similar to Altherr.

[zambonir]

Oh I think Altherr is better defensively but that's not the issue with him is it? Hard to even see him on the team unless they trade Herrera or Quinn gets hurt in Clearwater (assuming Altherr even makes it that long).

[LoneStarPhan]

• List item

McCutchen should only play center rarely in a pinch if needed. As a corner outfielder, he should be a nice improvement over Hoskins.

His offense in 2018 was slightly better than Santana, but he will be providing a boost in the outfield defense. If Santana could play the same in the outfield, they probably would have had him there all of last season. Our GM has done a nice job solving the sticky situation of having two first basemen.

[el-pietro]

Tristan H. Cockcroft (SultanofStat)

[andyb]

On the surface it is not a bad signing. Probably $5-$10 million more than he will deserve but that is less of an issue for us. I do think this (and maybe the Realmuto talks) mean that we may be moving into a reality of trying to compete next year without landing Machado or Harper. I do not really want to give a lot for Realmuto (like a package of Williams, Alfaro, and Sixto) because that would be putting a lot of dice on competing in the next 2 years without that anchor bat.

Getting Cutch gets us a solid clubhouse guy who replaces the offense of Santana, especially the walk rate. It does leave us thin on left-handed power so absent Harper it might become more important to upgrade 3B with a left-handed bat or at least keep Williams.

This fits into the "rearranging the square pegs into round hole" problem of the team. That is the easy first 5 wins (along with Segura having immediate defensive improvements). I worry now we are starting to be a more middle aged team without a great pipeline that won't be quite good enough in the near term without Harper or Machado. Note also that while Machado fills the biggest need position-wise, Harper (as a LH power bat) fills the biggest need in the lineup.

Still work to do this winter.

[Austinfan]

One more year than I would like, but the price is reasonable.
He's a 2-3 WAR player as long as he can play average defense in LF.

At $8M a WAR (I discount for overpay distortions, the object is to obtain value, not pay the "winner's curse" price), he only needs to rack up 6 WAR to justify this deal.

The only thing that fell for him last year was ISO, from .207 to .169, and part of that was due to playing in SF, his numbers jumped after moving to NYY. The fact that he played almost every day and didn't tail off in the second half suggests he has a couple more solid seasons in him, especially if they give him a few more days off to keep his legs and bat fresh.

[Austinfan]

However, with Haseley possibly starting in Lehigh, and Moniak starting in Reading, we'll have two LH bats who should add improved defense when they arrive.

So we basically need one good year out of McCutchen, then he can platoon the last two years to some extent if he falls off. The real key is keeping Quinn healthy or getting Herrera back on track, with a plus fielding CF with a gap power LH bat, Williams/Altherr, then Haseley in RF, McCutchen's age won't matter.

[bigegypt0417]

this move and the rumors around Realmuto may signal the Phillies attempting to upgrade themselves to become attractive to either harper or machado. On top of the fact that McCutchen might still have enough left in the tank, he's also a very good person and a good veteran leader for this team.

[andyb]

If we see McCutcheon as largely a platoon player it is unlikely he'll come close to 5 WAR over 3 years, especially as his defense probably declines some more. I also don't think Haseley or Moniak fit in as more than 4th OFs at this point and only Haseley is really likely to have much positive contribution in the next 3 years.

This is not a bad move. The money does not bother me. If it means we don't get Harper or Machado though, it is not a move that makes us good enough to win since our own upper minors pipeline is thin now. We also can't get overconfident on the pitching side. While these last 2 moves improve the defense (SS and moving Hoskins), we also might get 5 WAR less from Nola next year simply by regression to the mean. A 5 WAR season would still be really good from him. Expecting 10 WAR one more time is probably near impossible.

[el-pietro]

What gives you the impression hes a platoon player? Maybe by year three but he looks like an everyday improvement over Williams and Altherr to me.

[zambonir]

It does leave us thin on left-handed power so absent Harper it might become more important to upgrade 3B with a left-handed bat or at least keep Williams.

Not too many LH 3B out there, but there's certainly one!

I reckon they still want a RF if they don't get Harper (or Machado). Williams might stay as LH bat off the bench (paired with McCutchen in LF). Just can't see them pencilling Quinn in as a starter.

I genuinely don't know. If they whiff on the two big guys but bring in five new players (McCutchen, Segura, SP, RP, one more bat) that's still a lot of change, but is it enough? It also puts more pressure on Hoskins and Herrera, both of whom are best IMO as complementary players (Hoskins as the 2nd or 3rd-best guy, Herrera as 6th).

[jimbomill]

I concur with the take away - he is our Carlos Santana in the OF. Hope his performance doesn't continue its decay. Year 3 of this could be brutal, hoping I'm wrong, though.

[andyb]

I could see them dealing Herrera and having Williams as a full time starter along with McCutcheon with Quinn in center. Herrera still has a favorable contract and is young enough that he should have value. I think Williams still has a shot to be a pretty consistent 800 OPS/25 HR bat in the corner that might be a nice complement to our lower average patient guys.

Harper still works of course. How about Jed Lowrie for 2 years at 3B? Switch hitter but better against RHP and versatile enough to be a supersub later on if we get other 3B solutions. Moustakas also bats left.

[zambonir]

Yup Moustakas is the guy in that scenario.

I just can't see making Roman Quinn your starting anything. Maybe he'll never get hurt again but you at least need another guy who is capable of playing CF (unless you're prepared to play Harper, McCutchen or Williams there. They all have, but....)

[donaldorc]

I am happy with this signing. I think they have made progress on talks with Machado and will sign him, passing on Harper.

[zambonir]

Not that we'd know, but I don't think talks have really begun. They'll meet with the agent in LV and then bring the player to Philly. I agree/hope they probably know what they are doing though. I also think they are trying to build a potential 100-win team, not just one that can maybe win the East. The reality is, given both the Phillies system and the recent trends in baseball, that they can't just proceed along a linear path that leads to an open World Series window and multiple championships a few years from now.

[Philsmania]

I'm pessimistic about Machado, especially if the Yanks deal Andujar in the Realmuto shuffle. Machado would become the Yanks' priority number one.