Phillies Scouting Director Johnny Almaraz Steps Down

[allentown]

Almaraz's desire to spend more time with his family

I'm not sure how much time it would take. He wouldn't have to bird dog a lot of raw gem prospects as Sal and his crew do. He would need to work his contacts to get a lead chance to view and bid on best talent early. He (or maybe as in the case of the pre-Giles Phillies, a scout who worked for him in D.R.) has the ability to evaluate premium 14-15 year old talent, project to future, and separate wheat from chaff. I'm not convinced our guys looked for the right things with Encarnacion and Ortiz. As AF said, early physical maturation isn't what they should look for. Neither is B.P. power. Both in the draft and LA we dumped a lot of our $ on guys with these qualities, rather than spend the big $ on actually good prospects. I think part of the way Almarez is wasted is that our top draft picks have been collegiate recently. If his skill is identifying talent at age 14-15 and following the kid for half a year or year prior to gaining an agreement and committing our $1-2 million, in a regime where stats are meaningless, then that is a FAR different skill set than choosing the best college talent.

Our last H.S.-heavy draft was 2016, when our first 3 picks were H.S. kids. It seemed like Gillick had both thumbs and several other fingers in that pie. In the 3 drafts since then we've taken only one H.S. kid in the top 4 rounds.

[zambonir]

I think Sal is a very unusual case when it comes to international, because he's a lifer and he likes to be on the ground. For all we know Almaraz never left his office in Atlanta until it was time to finalize a deal. Much like a GM doesn't see that many domestic kids until they have a shortlist. And who knows how many of Almaraz's contacts from five years ago are even good now, or how many he personally had in the first place.

Whatever he's doing it's not gonna be much more than Mackanin or Gillick do, is my guess. If he truly stepped down of his own volition the consulting gig is a mutually beneficial golden parachute. If he was subtly nudged out it's just a fancy, if still mutually beneficial, buyout (as with Mackanin).

Assuming Klentak and Minnitti are still employed going forward, I kind of figure Sal will be the last domino to fall.

[fish]

Where the Rays shine is development- they Seem develop more guys from other organizations than their own picks (which they do alright with too). Oh to dream that the Phillies could figure that out.

[andyb]

Rays also get lots of high picks while constantly trading their arbitration eligible players for more prospects. And competitive balance picks. Lots of material to work with.

[fish]

Rays also get lots of high picks while constantly trading their arbitration eligible players for more prospects. And competitive balance picks. Lots of material to work with.

Oddly, for as smart of a organization as they are they’ve missed on a lot of their first round picks. I don’t want their amateur scouts, I want their pro scouts.

[andyb]

Oddly, for as smart of a organization as they are they’ve missed on a lot of their first round picks. I don’t want their amateur scouts, I want their pro scouts

In those years they had 7 picks in the first or compensation rounds they probably tried to save money on half of them.

[bigegypt0417]

Oddly, for as smart of a organization as they are they’ve missed on a lot of their first round picks. I don’t want their amateur scouts, I want their pro scouts

In those years they had 7 picks in the first or compensation rounds they probably tried to save money on half of them.

They haven't had a first round hit since David Price

[Patchmk88]

McKay looks like he has a chance to be pretty good.

[bigegypt0417]

McKay looks like he has a chance to be pretty good.

True...but they are at a decade of wasted picks.

[andyb]

Blake Snell too is looking pretty good. But they had 10 number ones and supplementals in 2011 (none higher than 24th overall but still), and Snell is one of only 4 to make the majors including our old friend Tyler Goedell.

Now the other side is they have only had one top 10 pick since 2008 and that is McKay who looks pretty good. The dropoff in chances of success after the top 10 picks is pretty large, which is why we really need to hit on our run of top picks. Tampa's first playoff run was fueled by hitting on Evan Longoria and David Price in successive years. We have actually had more top 10 picks recently than they did. We really need to hit on at least 2 of Moniak, Haseley, Bohm, and Stott.

[Philsmania]

Could it be that first rounders can be overrated? Look at the Astros blowing two 1-1's in a row (Appel and Aiken). Appel never even made it to The Show and Aiken is looking like a long shot at this point. That would probably make them two of the worst 1-1's in the history of the draft. However, that didn't seem to set the Astros back all that much.

[zambonir]

Well, Aiken doesn't count against the Astros. They didn't sign him because of concerns about his health (even if that seemed like posturing at the time). Then they got Bregman as the 1-2 comp pick. And Correa was a 1-1. Russ Springer taken 11th (we should be so lucky to get that from Haseley).

[andyb]

Could it be that first rounders can be overrated? Look at the Astros blowing two 1-1's in a row (Appel and Aiken). Appel never even made it to The Show and Aiken is looking like a long shot at this point. That would probably make them two of the worst 1-1's in the history of the draft. However, that didn't seem to set the Astros back all that much.

I think it is more that the fan thinks that baseball first rounders should succeed at the same rate as first rounders in other sports. We have more information on basketball and football players so the percentage of successes are probably greater. Baseball players are often drafted a bit younger and the sport has a steeper learning curve than other sports where you don't need 3 or 4 years in the minors typically.

This Fangraphs article has a chart on the $ value of each pick. The curve drops pretty steeply and remember the dollar figures use a WAR projection over their controllable years so a huge percentage of picks, especially beyond the top 10 fail. That is the nature of the game. Our expectations are just set around the failure rate of number one picks in other sports.

An Update on How to Value Draft Picks

[andyb]

Russ Springer taken 11th (we should be so lucky to get that from Haseley).

Isn't our problem that we usually end up with Russ and not George?

[zambonir]

lol, yes! I do that all the time. (Pretty sure Russ had a stint in Houston too.)

[allentown]

So, pick 1.13 has an NPV of $20 million for the 6-7 years of team control. That suggests a reasonably high hit rate of at least making the majors.

[Squire]

Salisbury tweets that this search is wrapping up and the Phillies seem to be targeting Brian Barber currently a national cross checker in the Yankees organization.

[flyers19rw]

Wonder if Barber, being a Yankee who has worked with Girardi in the past, is a tip that Joe is getting the manager's job? Anyway, he looks like a good hire.

[zambonir]

I doubt it. I bet some managers have never even met their team's national cross checker. They're not even in the draft room typically.

I just hope Middleton has vetted the guy. Surely this is just as important a job as manager, and when you're an owner with that much business experience and baseball smarts, you don't want to just let some assistant GM do it.

[schillingfan]

I doubt it. I bet some managers have never even met their team's national cross checker. They're not even in the draft room typically.

I just hope Middleton has vetted the guy. Surely this is just as important a job as manager, and when you're an owner with that much business experience and baseball smarts, you don't want to just let some assistant GM do it.

Well if you trust your team President and Gm, you won’t need to vet the candidates. The scouting and farm director isn’t picked by an assistant GM, I hope. I just noticed the wink, so I guess you are being sarcastic.